The highlight on the first day of the VRC Carnival will be the running of the 157th edition of the VRC Derby and this year sees a field of sixteen 3yo’s taking part. The last three Derby’s have gone to New Zealand visitors (Sangster, Lion Tamer and Monaco Consul) so that will please connections of current favourite and New Zealand representative It’s A Dundeel. What won’t though, is that the last favourite to win this race was Efficient back in 2006.
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1. IT’S A DUNDEEL – J McDonald (10)
The High Chaparral colt won each of his four starts, including the G1 Spring Champion (2000m) Stakes at Randwick early this month. Off the back of that win, he was quoted as short as $2.00 for the Derby however, last week he stepped at the un-backable odds of $1.30 in the G2 The Vase and finished second to Super Cool. Had his chance last start and was being held on the line by Super Cool but despite that loss, punters have stuck with him and believe the wide open spaces of Flemington will be more suitable to his racing style than that of the Valley. He opened at $2.70 and has already drifted to a quote of $2.80 (Thursday pm) and may get a further out still now that he has drawn out wide.
Odds: $2.90
2. JIMANDO – M Neilson (6)
Tony McEvoy trained Commands colt who won the Listed Henry Bucks (1400m) at Flemington three starts back and in his subsequent runs, has ran third in the G2 Bill Stutt (behind Peirro), third again in the Listed UCI Stakes (1800m) and at his most recent start, ran seventh of eight in the G3 Norman Robinson. He sat on the speed in that start and was being scrubbed along as they turned before copping some interference that quickly dashed any hope he may have had of finishing in the finish. He’s been handy without winning recently.
Odds: $21.00
3. HONORIUS – C Brown (2)
Son of Holy Roman Emperor has been ultra consistent this prep, if not winning. He has been placed at each of his four runs this time including a third behind Proisir and It’s A Dundeel in the G1 Spring Champion and at his most recent start, a nose second to Hvasstan in the Norman Robinson. He’s drawn well here and will only need a touch of luck approaching the turn to be in the mix here.
Odds: $6.50
4. SUPER COOL – M Rodd (11)
Defeated It’s A Dundeel last week in the G2 Vase after sitting in a nice spot throughout and showing a good change of gears as they approached the turn. That was his second win from five starts and his Trainer, Mark Kavanagh revealed post race, that this race was always their target. Certainly appears to be peaking at the right time but will have to overcome an awkward draw.
Odds: $7.00
5. HVASSTAN – G Boss (9)
The second of three sons of Fastnet Rock (Super Cool and Electric Fusion the others) in this race and it’s impossible to knock this horse’s form. He’s won three of his past four (ran second in the other) including a tough effort last start in the G3 Norman Robinson Stakes where he had to take a tight run and force his way through. Winning form plus the determination he showed last start makes the $6.50 on offer an appealing price.
Odds: $6.50
6. FIVEANDHALFSTAR – D Oliver – (5)
Finally broke his maiden status, at his thirteenth attempt, two starts back in a Canterbury Maiden and backed that up with a solid 2 ¾ win in a BM 72 at Rosehill last week. From his gate, expect him to roll forward or in the least, be handy to the lead and he gives the impression that the trip is within his reach but it is a big step up in class on his most recent efforts.
Odds: $26.00
7. ESCADO – B Melham – (12)
Casino Prince gelding who caught the eye two starts back with a good finishing effort in the UCI Stakes (1800m) when two lengths behind Philippi. Stepped out then as 11/4 favourite in the Geelong Classic (2200m) and finished third behind Solemn, beaten 1 ¾ at his next and most recent start. Raced a bit erratically last time out and the experience over the journey will have benefited him however, can’t see him winning on that effort.
Odds: $26.00
8. ELECTRIC FUSION – N Hall – (7)
Trained by Robert Smerdon and lining up for only his fifth start but off the back of his close up third in the Norman Robinson, is considered a genuine each-way chance here at $11.00. Jumped from 1500m, to 2000m last start so would think he’d be better for that run. He’s improved significantly at each of his four starts.
Odds: $11.00
9. SUBIASO – S Arnold – (8)
Robbie Laing trained colt who returned to racing in September with a win in a Seymour Maiden and two starts later, came from a long way back to register a ninth (beaten 5 lengths) in the Listed UCI Stakes (1800m). At his most recent start, the son of Testa Rossa had little luck in the straight when competing in the Norman Robinson. He was held up for a run and had to cross heels in the straight but did hit the line in good style which makes the $15.00 on offer worth consideration.
Odds: $15.00
10. BULLION EXPRESS – V Duric (16)
Cracked his Maiden status back in August at Bendigo and managed two placing from his next three starts in restricted grade. Stepped up in a class at his most recent start and tackled the G2 The Vase at Moonee Valley last week. He led but was easily accounted for in the final stages. Average form plus the outside alley makes it almost mission impossible for him.
Odds: $251.00
11. MALABAR MAN – C Williams – (15)
A colt by Any Given Sunday who only commenced his racing career in September in a Sale Maiden and backed that up with second in Cranbourne Maiden before, at his most recent start, a tough effort when finishing second behind Solemn in the Geelong Classic (22000m). His bred to stay all day with his dam having produced a G2 winner in Europe – “Best Alibi” who won over 2 ¼ miles. This race might have come a bit early on his career but, judging by his efforts thus far and breeding, should have no trouble with the trip which is half the battle won.
Odds: $21.00
12. COSTA NOVA – H Bowman – (14)
He is yet to break his Maiden status in seven race starts but not through the lack of trying. The Ellerton/Zahra trained gelding ran second to the unbeaten Philippi three starts back before finishing mid-filed in the UCI Stakes and then 3.9 lengths of Hvasstan in the Norman Robinson a fortnight back. He sat up on the speed that day and was being claimed by the eventual placegetters when he got chopped out at a vital stage. Don’t think he would’ve won but should’ve finished closer that what he did last start.
Odds: $61.00
13. OUR DESERT WARRIOR – N Rawiller – (13)
The full brother to multiple Group 1 Champion Desert War who, like his famous sibling, has only been lightly raced early in his career. He tackles this race and trip at only his fourth start and after having ran fourth (beaten 5.4) in the Geelong Classic at his most recent outing. That followed an average effort in a mid-week Warwick Farm meeting where as 4/9 favourite, he ran second to Rowie (who was beaten last Saturday in Sydney.) On these effort, can’t include him here.
Odds: $21.00
14. NISOS – B Egan – (3)
From the Paul Roche yard at Mornington, the son of Excellent Art is yet to register a win from seven outings. His last two efforts consist of a close third in the Listed Hill Smith Stakes in Adelaide before being well handled in the G2 The Vase at Moonee Valley last week. It’s hard to see improving enough on that run to figure in the finish.
Odds: $51.00
15. RAWNAQ – M Walker – (4)
A well bred colt by Redoute’s Choice out of Group 1 placed mare Winning Belle for David Hayes who isn’t living up to his parentage so far in his career. He has one win and a placing from his five starts to date and they were both at Wagga in a Maiden and Class 1. Well accounted for last start in the UCI Stakes where he finished twelfth of sixteen.
Odds: $101.00
16. BATISTUTA – D Yendall – (1)
By Japanese sire Hat Trick, this colt has had three starts for a win in a Mildura Maiden and a third at his most recent start in a Swan Hill RST 62 event over 2100m. It would go down as one of the biggest upsets in Derby history if he saluted.
Odds: $210.00
SUMMARY
The Derby has changed complexion after It’s A Dundeel’s unexpected loss last week. That was the third time this season that an “unbeatable” prospect has been rolled with Proisir (Spring Champion) and Pierro (Caulfield Guineas) the other two so it pays to be cautious with him here at his current quote. Hvasstan and Honorius have both done little wrong in the lead up to this race and finished side by side in the Norman Robinson last week. Hvasstan has drawn well enough in the centre of the field and is to be piloted by the Jockey of the moment – Glenn Boss with Honorius being afforded every opportunity of a good run at transit from his gate. At their current quote of $6.50 for each of them, they have to be included. Subiaso who despite being unlucky last start in the traditional lead-up race The Norman Robinson, finished his race off as well as anything else. His trainer can prepare a stayer and at $15.00, is worth something each way or including in multiples.