The fourth and final of the Group l races at Randwick this Saturday is the Australian Derby (2400m), where Observer and Green Spaces dominate betting.
Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2026 Australian Derby.
2026 Australian Derby Runner Preview:
1. Observer: I’ll stick with the class of Observer. I thought it was a very negative ride by Williams in the Rosehill Guineas and it just played into the hands of Autumn Boy, with the sit/sprint set up suiting that horse more ideally vs Observer, who is giving off the impression of wanting a true staying contest, so the rise to 2400m is no issue and hoping for a ride with far more intent.
2. Road To Paris: Big winner of the NZ Derby but just not sure how strong that form is and from the carpark, he’s going to need a lot of luck.
3. Green Spaces: Green Spaces looks the most obvious from the Rosehill Guineas. He was never beating Autumn Boy but I really liked the way he finished his race off in defeat. He’ll love the rise to 2400m and does look to have been purely set for the race.
4. Deal Done Fast: Down the track in the Rosehill Guineas and have others ahead of him.
5. Storm Leopard: He was arrogant in the Tulloch last Saturday but what did he beat? I say not much, and for mine, he is well and truly under the odds.
6. One Step Closer: Kept chasing with purpose in the Rosehill Guineas but was held and can’t see him improving enough to turn the tables.
7. Federalist: I think he’ll eat up 2400m…just whether he eats it up fast enough is the question.
8. Savisanta: Just missed in the Alister Clark at Caulfield but that looked an ordinary edition and not sure he is up to these.
9. Victorious Spirit: Plain in the Rosehill Guineas but was wide no cover and has too much ground to make up.
10. Kaye Jay: Good racing style but lacks the class/quality.
11. Bingi: Well and truly up against it.
12. Are You Kidding: For wider exotics, I can entertain Are You Kidding. He beat nothing at Beaumont Newcastle last time but the manner in which he went about it to win over 2200m, several weeks since racing over the mile, the win was impressive. Bred to eat up 2400m and has upside. Doubt he wins, but can run first four.
13.Dezignation: Reckon he’d be in with a shout if they went to Adelaide/Brisbane, but not up to these.
2026 Australian Derby $100 Betting Strategy:
$50 Win Observer and Green Spaces
Group l Strategy Outlay: $5300
Group l Strategy Return: $4163
Australian Derby Field
| No | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Barrier | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OBSERVER | Ciaron Maher | James McDonald | 12 | 56.5kg |
| 2 | ROAD TO PARIS (NZ) | Roger James & Robert Wellwood | Zac Purton | 10 | 56.5kg |
| 3 | GREEN SPACES | Bjorn Baker | Ms Rachel King | 6 | 56.5kg |
| 4 | DEAL DONE FAST | Matt Cumani | Damian Lane | 8 | 56.5kg |
| 5 | STORM LEOPARD | Ben, Will & JD Hayes | Tommy Berry | 5 | 56.5kg |
| 6 | ONE STEP CLOSER | Tom Charlton | Zac Lloyd | 2 | 56.5kg |
| 7 | FEDERALIST | Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes | Dylan Gibbons | 7 | 56.5kg |
| 8 | SAVISANTA (NZ) | Chris Waller | Ben Melham | 11 | 56.5kg |
| 9 | VICTORIOUS SPIRIT | Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman | Luke Nolen | 13 | 56.5kg |
| 10 | KAYE JAY | Clayton Douglas | Mark Zahra | 1 | 56.5kg |
| 11 | BINGI | Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman | Michael Dee | 9 | 56.5kg |
| 12 | ARE YOU KIDDING | Paul Messara & Leah Gavranich | Ashley Morgan | 3 | 56.5kg |
| 13 | DEZIGNATION | Matthew Smith | Tyler Schiller | 4 | 56.5kg |
Australian Derby Odds
2026 Australian Derby Speed Map
I can’t really see much front end pressure here outside Observer, who should lead for absolute fun without much pressure. Savisanta maybe can push forward? Dezignation and maybe Are You Kidding but really, Observer should get a soft lead.