The $1 Million Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) is regarded as the best race in Brisbane. And when you look at some past winners, it is hard to disagree.
Boom sprinter Campaign King won in 1988, and in the 22 runnings since, some outstanding horses have greeted the judge, such as Rough Habit (twice), All Our Mob, Dane Ripper, Show A Heart, Private Steer and Thorn Park. Black Piranha has won the past two runnings of this race. Can he do it again?
Based on his form at the moment, I’d have to say yes. He has had two runs this time in, with a solid fifth behind Black Caviar in the BTC Cup before a luckless third in the Doomben 10,000 behind Beaded where he was held up for most of the straight. And from what trainer Con Karakatsanis has told me, the horse is in great shape heading into Saturday.
If the rain comes or not, he is versatile and races well either way. And when you consider the races he has contested in his career, he looks beautifully weighted with 57kg. He has drawn gate three, he should sit off the pace and with a bit of luck in the straight, I think he’ll win. I certainly hope so because prior to his first up run, I snapped up $41 for the Stradbroke and he is now $6 equal favourite.
While the weather won’t worry Black Piranha, it will certainly worry trainer Robert Heathcoate with his two runners, Woorim and Buffering. Without doubt, Woorim has the best finish of any local horse in the race, but only when the track is dry. There is expected to be some rainfall on Saturday and if that’s the case, then the task is made harder for Woorim. The key factor in favour of the horse is that top rider Corey Brown takes the reins. If the track remains dry, and if the speed is on upfront, look out.
Buffering looks a value chance. Probably not suited at WFA and Heathcoate has said that those runs were just for fitness in readiness for this race. This is his grand final and is weighted well with only 52kg. Expect him to sit on the speed and fighting like a bulldog to the line. He looked sharp in work on Tuesday and don’t be surprised to see him run a forward race.
20 starts for 10 wins and nine placings. That is Beaded’s record. It is incredible. She is the tough nut, a real workhorse. She came from a similar draw last year in this race and went down in a thrilling finish, beaten half a length. She had the charm run and was too good in the Doomben 10,000 and although she got the wobbles late, she was impressive. She will improve on that run and is a top hope.
Love Conquers All is an unlucky horse. If he had a bigger nose, he’d be a two time group one winner. Instead, he is a specialist in getting the silver medal. Led and fought back like a tiger only to be nosed out by Beaded. He has the nightmare alley, so he will do a power of work to sit near the speed, but if luck goes his way, he’ll be right in the finish. However, I don’t think he’ll get the luck and I’m happy to risk him.
Thankgodyou’rehere looks a massive threat. Trialled like a superstar at the start of the prep and ran a slashing second to Atomic Force in the Galaxy before a brave fourth in the Prime Ministers Cup behind Tampiko, then he took an age to wind up before hitting the line very hard in the BRC Sprint behind Woorim. He will get his group one before his career ends. Can he get it here? If the breaks go his way, certainly. Very gifted horse who will be finishing off stylishly late.
Plenty of people have put a line through Sincero. Why? He was massive unders last week and was coming back 300m in distance from his win in the Inglis Guineas. He doesn’t like being cluttered up near horses. He needs clean air and he didn’t get that. Barrier four is an ok barrier for him, wouldn’t say it’s the best barrier, but he is too talented to dismiss. Perfectly weighted, gun hoop in Jason Taylor, who is in form at the moment, and won’t get a better chance to win a major handicap race given the fact this is one of the weakest editions of this race.
All Silent…dear oh dear oh dear. At his best, he’d just about beat these. He was expected to bounce back hard in the Doomben 10,000 but he was a major flop. Speaking to trainer Grahame Begg earlier this week, he was disappointed with the run but he said that the pace of the race and the fact he was carted six-seven deep around the turn didn’t help. Ever since his great effort in the Golden Shaheen, he hasn’t fired a shot. The major factor is that the top, aggressive and strong rider Nash Rawiller takes over. That is the only positive for the horse. If the rain comes, put a line through him.
Two more roughies for me: Listen Son and Culminate. Listen Son has finally drawn the gun barrier. Top local hoop Ryan Wiggins will put the gelding to sleep near the speed on the fence. He was very brave last week and hopefully the run hasn’t taken a big toll on him.
Doesn’t want it too wet though because he is a dud on a wet track. Culminate has really fired since coming to Brisbane. Closed off strongly in the Glenlogan Park before a brave fourth in the Dane Ripper last Saturday when carrying 58.5kg. She drops to 52kg, Michael Walker knows the mare very well and can sit anywhere in the run. Looks massive overs.
For me, I think Black Piranha will win, but I wouldn’t rule out Thankgodyou’rehere, Sincero, Listen Son and Culminate. But any of the other horses mentioned above can win. It is a very open, even race.
Written by Adam Page
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