The Grand Finals of Australian racing are finally here- The Championships, and it continues this Saturday at Randwick where we see a bumper ten race card, with four majors, including the feature event of the Sydney Autumn, the Longines Queen Elizabeth (2000m), worth $4 Million. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out six metres from the 1600m-Winning Post; Out three metres for the remainder.
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Race One (11:30) : TFE Fernhill Handicap 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Prized Icon (Best Odds: $2.30) comes through the Schweppervescence (1400m) at Rosehill where he closed off strongly to run a close up second to Attention, who failed in the Sires last weekend. Form hasn’t held up, but it doesn’t have to when most of these are coming off last start maiden efforts, so he only has to repeat that Rosehill outing to go close here.
Big Danger: 4 Crown Him (Best Odds: $7.00) also comes through that race above where he sat off speed and stuck on pretty well late when a close up fourth. Has to improve a touch to figure prominently, but doesn’t have to improve a great deal given the lack of depth engaged.
Roughie: 8 Gravitate (Best Odds: $9.00) is a colt for Team Snowden who has only had two career outings, the latest a tick over a month back at Warwick Farm behind Rock And Swing. Recent Rosehill trial was encouraging and there is plenty of upside.
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Race Two (12:10) : McGrath Estate Agents South Pacific Classic 1400m:
Back Me: 5 Suspense (Best Odds: $10.00) is a talented Team Snowden three year old that gets his first taste of Stakes action after winning three on the bounce this time in, all of which have been against the older horses, which is something I always respect. He has to carry a decent weight, which isn’t easy, but he has class and the will to win, and I think 1400m will be no issue.
Big Danger: 14 Sonic Swish (Best Odds: $10.00) took on the older horses on BMW Day at Rosehill and closed off strongly when running a very good fourth to the above average Godolphin galloper Federal. That solid 1400m run should see him well placed here, he handles all conditions and should have plenty of upside here.
Roughie: 9 Tulsa (Best Odds: $11.00) has been freshened up since having no luck at all in the Randwick Guineas (1600m) behind Le Romain, beaten just under six lengths after cutting back to the inside when checked, which wasn’t the spot to be that afternoon. Has since trialled well behind Hellbent, the freshen up to 1400m is ideal, and on potential, he is clearly the best horse in the race.
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Race Three (12:45) : The Provincial Championships Final 1400m:
Back Me: Keen here on the Kim Waugh trained 1 Supreme Effort (Best Odds: $11.00). This gelding produced a brilliant finish to win here two back, beating home Meursault in a thrilling finish. He then went to the Wyong Qualifier for this series and was given a lovely steer from Macca to get the job done impressively in what was one of the strongest heats. Trialled at Newcastle last week and gee he could not have went any better, winning that and beating home Lucia Valentina, who I like in the Queen Elizabeth. Just has to bring that here to be the winner.
Big Danger: 3 His Majesty (Best Odds: $6.00) was Black Caviar-like when winning first up at Beaumont-Newcastle before going to that Wyong race mentioned above where he had to come from last and was the widest on the turn. He loomed to win the race 200m out but the hard effort to circle the field just told late. He also won a trial at Newcastle last week and went just as well, if not better than the stablemate mentioned above. My only query with him is running a strong 1400m, but on ability, he has these covered.
Roughie: 2 Better Not Blue (Best Odds: $11.00) resumed in that Wyong race and his effort was outstanding I thought given he was back near last in the run also and had to make a sustained run. He ran third but he was the strongest on the line and soon after, he was in front. He has since trialled at Warwick Farm and looked very good there I thought. He handles all conditions and there is just so much upside with this bloke.
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Race Four (13:20) : IG Markets Percy Sykes Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: Going with the Chris Waller trained 11 Gretna (Best Odds: $8.00). She was impressive in winning two back at the Valley before going to Caulfield a fortnight back where she was given a pretty ordinary steer when a luckless third to Najmaat, beaten 2.5L, but with a better ride, she would have won. She’ll eat up the 1200m here and she did trial well on a couple of occasions in Sydney prior to her debut at Caulfield.
Big Danger: 3 Twist Tops (Best Odds: $6.50) has been given a little freshen up since racing in the Magic Night (1200m) where she ran a very credible third to Calliope. She is nothing flash to look at, but there is plenty to like about her, and her recent trial win on her home track at Newcastle was outstanding. Double figures is the wrong odds for this talented filly.
Roughie: 12 Palomino (Best Odds: $17.00) is a very good filly for Godolphin who can measure up here. She is a maiden, but her two runs this time in have been very good. She resumed in the Sweet Embrace at this track/distance and closed off well against the double bias behind Scarlett Rain before going to Kembla Grange maiden where, on face value, she was disappointing but the track just didn’t suit her at all. Better off here and she can knock these out.
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Race Five (13:55) : Arrowfield 3YO Sprint 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Counterattack (Best Odds: $10.00) closed off strongly first up in the Darby Munro (1200m) where he was ridden negatively from the wide gate and was asked to do too much, but the effort was still very good. He was backed to win the Newmarket (1200m) but was a late scratching. He loves racing at Randwick and a fast run 1200m will be ideal for him.
Big Danger: 1 Japonisme (Best Odds: $2.70) was brilliant last time out against the older horses in the William Reid (1200m), coming home from near last and out wide to run a close up third to Flamberge and Holler in a thrilling finish. First up since his Coolmore (1200m) win on Derby Day that he faces his own age, and at set weights, gee he looks well placed.
Roughie: 7 Hellbent (Best Odds: $8.50) is the one that creates interest. He hasn’t raced since the Summer when bolting up down the Flemington straight in an Inglis race, beating home Mossin’ Around, who was subsequently competitive around Group l performers, so that reads well, and his recent Rosehill trial win was very impressive. He is the one that potentially, can win this.
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Race Six (14:35) : James Boags Premium Australian Oaks 2400m:
Back Me: Going with 3 Honesta (Best Odds: $10.00) in a cracking edition of the Oaks. This filly, like most of these, comes through the Vinery Stud (2000m) where she closed off strongly when running sixth to impressive winner Single Gaze. The key to this horse is getting onto a bigger track, tick, and some cut in the track, tick. Last time that eventuated she ran a brave second to Jameka in the Crown Oaks (2500m). She looks the tremendous overs.
Big Danger: On class and form, 1 Jameka (Best Odds: $3.50) looks the clear horse to beat. Her run behind Tarzino in the Roeshill Guineas (2000m) was outstanding and she backed it up with a brave second last Saturday in the Derby behind Tavago where she was well beaten but was coming again on the line. If she handles the seven day back up here, she’ll go very close.
Roughie: How is 2 Single Gaze (Best Odds: $14.00) $17? We underestimated her in the Vinery, and what happened? She put the race to bed with 200m to go and was comfortably holding her rivals. She’ll handle the 2400m based on that run, she will love some give in the track and is a last start Group l winner. In terms of betting, I’ll definitely have something each way on her.
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Race Seven (15:15) : Schweppes Sydney Cup 3200m:
Back Me: Very keen on 3 Grand Marshal (Best Odds: $4.20) He has been ticking over beautifully for this race all Autumn and his effort in the BMW (2400m) was outstanding when a close up third to stablemates Preferment and Who Shot Thebarman. He won this race year, and is clearly going better in 2016. He will eat up the two miles and meets every runner from the BMW here much better at the weights.
Big Danger: 4 Libran (Best Odds: $4.20) is on the back up from last Saturday when winning the Chairmans (2600m), with Avdulla pretty much throwing the horse over the line in a really determined victory and what appeared to be a lovely Sydney Cup tune up. He is the horse on the up, he is hard fit and is in winning form. He lacks the class of his stablemates, but he has the lightweight to bring him right into contention.
Roughie: 2 Almoonqith (Best Odds: $8.00) ran a pretty solid race in the BMW I thought when finishing midfield behind Preferment. He showed some dash when asked for the effort, but his fitness just gave way over the final 150m. He has been set for this race since winning the Sandown Cup (3200m) in the Spring, and he does look ready to peak now. Definite threat.
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Race Eight (15:55) : Coolmore Legacy Stakes:
Back Me: Finding it very hard to see anything other than a win for 3 Azkadellia. (Best Odds: $3.50) Her effort in the Doncaster Mile (1600m) last Saturday was outstanding when third to star mare Winx given she had to make her run in the worst part of the track and it was her first test against the big boys and girls and she was fantastic. Back to her own sex now, and she looks ready to peak now.
Big Danger: 14 Badawiya (Best Odds: $9.00) was awesome when winning the Kewney (1400m) first up at Flemington before going to the Emancipation (1500m), where I think she can be easily forgiven given she had to come home near the inside and that wasn’t the best place to be. She has enormous upside and does get the pull in the weights from the other mares that contested the Emancipation that line up here. She is a definite threat.
Roughie: 5 Noble Protector (Best Odds: $11.00) started favourite in this race last year and was given a horrible ride from Williams behind Amanpour. She has had two runs this time in. First up at Flemington she dumped Williams after one stride. She then went to the Valley in the Sunline Stakes and closed off powerfully behind Miss Rose De Lago. On ability and potential, she is one of the hardest to beat.
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Race Nine (16:35) : Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: I’ll have something each way on star mare 12 Lucia Valentina. (Best Odds: $7.50) She resumed in the Coolmore Classic (1500m) and worked home very strongly when running a close up fourth to Peeping. The horses who ran in that race included Azkadellia, Vergara, Zanbagh and Pearls, all of which have won or run cracking races since. She trialled last Tuesday at Newcastle and closed off strongly behind Supreme Effort, who will win the Provincial Championship Final if he runs up to his trial. Lucia Valentina has enormous upside and the last time she was at 2000m, she was the best of the beaten brigade in the Hong Kong International Cup.
Big Danger: 1 Criterion (Best Odds: $5.00) is the knockout horse. He won this race last year and there were question marks on him after a below par effort in the Canterbury Stakes (1300m) but he was much better in the Ranvet (2000m) when third to The United States. Wouldn’t say he is going as well as he was 12 months ago, but he comes here with upside and he has a wonderful record at Randwick.
Roughie: The veteran 6 Happy Trails (Best Odds: $51.00) is a horse who could surprise. I thought his run in the Australian Cup (2000m) behind Preferment was outstanding given he was the only horse to make ground from the back in a race totally dominated by those on speed. He ran midfield in this race last year, again not suited by the slow tempo. Dunn remains on and he always busts his gut.
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Race Ten (17:15) : Sensis Sapphire Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 15 No More Tears (Best Odds: $13.00) is a very interesting runner for the Stephen Marsh yard. Appears to be the travelling companion for Sofia Rosa, but she is talented herself. She comes off a last start Group lll win at Ellerslie over 1200m where she was impressive and strong through the line. Unbeaten in three runs on wet ground and gets Tommy Berry aboard.
Big Danger: 6 Cradle Me (Best Odds: $4.60) would be on top had it not been for the fact we will have a track with give in it. She closed off strongly late in the Birthday Card (1200m) at Rosehill last time out when a close up fourth to Sultry Feeling, beaten less than a length. She gets much needed weight relief here and will be another that will flash home. The wet track is the only negative.
Roughie: 12 Berry Delicious (Best Odds: $34.00) is the watch horse. She is a quality mare that resumes for Jason Coyle after a disappointing Spring, where her lone highlight was a third to Peeping in the Golden Pendant (1400m). Her trials leading in have been very good, and if the track remains to have some give in it, she will be suited because she is an absolute swimmer.
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BEST BET: Race Eight Number 3 Azkadellia
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 3 Grand Marshal
VALUE: Race Ten Number 15 No More Tears
Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4
Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6, 13, 14
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 9, 10, 12
Leg Four: 6, 9, 10, 12, 14, 15
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