The carnival in Adelaide warms up this Saturday at Morphettville with a couple of blacktype races programmed. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:33) : Adelaide’s Fetstival Of Racing Handicap (64) 1200m:
Back Me: 10 Cocoa Doll (Best Odds: $2.90) is a handy filly that resumes here for Phillip Stokes. She debuted in the Spring with a strong win over 1000m on the Parks before running over this trip on Caulfield Guineas Day and finished last to Serene Majesty. Recent trial behind Burst Away was very good and looks the way to go.
Big Danger: 7 Jester Angel (Best Odds: $3.80) hasn’t raced for nearly two weeks since running a game third to Stella The Boss at Ladbrokes Park, sitting off speed and closing off well. Looks well placed here and should take some beating.
Roughie: 2 Aravalli (Best Odds: $17.00) is a Tony McEvoy trained galloper that comes to SA after doing his racing in NSW. He comes off a closing fourth to Oscar’s Choice ar Beaumont-Newcastle after getting back near last in the run. Only has to bring that form here to be a contender.
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Race Two (13:08) : UBET Handicap 1050m:
Back Me: 1 Miss Gunpowder (Best Odds: $2.50) looks the way to go in a really good three year old race. This star filly resumes here after a successful Spring, which ended with a disappointing eighth to Stay With Me in the Thousand Guineas (1600m). Loved her recent trial here and Emily Finnegan gets on with the filly very well.
Big Danger: 4 Burst Away (Best Odds: $3.80) looks the only threat to the top tip. He has a couple of screws loose upstairs, but he is a very good horse, perhaps Stakes class. He won that trial mentioned above and looked to go about it quite comfortably. He gets the weight pull, better barrier and senior rider aboard.
Roughie: 12 Streetcar Illusion (Best Odds: $31.00) resumed over this trip on the Parks track three weeks back where he was well backed and that support was justified with a dominant win. Harder here, but there is a bit to like about him and he has the race fitness on his side.
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Race Three (13:43) : Quayclean Handicap (75) 1200m:
Back Me: 4 Coachella (Best Odds: $8.00) resumed over this track/distance on Adelaide Cup Day and looked very unlucky in the straight when a close up second to Scratchy Lass, who went on to win at Stakes level during the Oakbank Carnival, so the form reads well, and this mare just has enormous upside.
Big Danger: 10 Chateau Cheval (Best Odds: $3.20) is a talented mare that resumes for the Hayes/Dabernig yard. Her form in the Spring reads very well given she did beat home Estaminet, who is an above average mare for Team Freedman. Hasn’t caught my attention at the jump outs, but she was due to run on Wednesday at Sandown and there was a market push prior to her scratching, so I’ll respect that here.
Roughie: 9 Island Beach (Best Odds: $21.00) is on the back up from last Saturday when she raced on the Parks track and tried hard when a close up fifth to Master Sommelier. Perhaps getting back to the course proper will help and she won’t mind some give in the track.
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Race Four (14:23) : Schweppes Handicap (75) 1100m:
Back Me: 7 Shaf (Best Odds: $2.90) looks close to a good thing here. This son of Wanted is loving life in Adelaide for the Hayes/Dabernig stable, winning two from two, including a spank job of his rivals at Oakbank. Only has to repeat that effort here to just about take care of these despite the tricky gate.
Big Danger: 8 Belle Melba (Best Odds: $4.80) is a handy mare that resumes for Clinton McDonald. She won over this track/distance in late November before running fourth in the Italian Plate at Tatura. Hasn’t caught my eye at the jump outs, but she flies fresh and Jamie Kah did ride her to that track/distance win, and she is back on.
Roughie: 1 Last Day (Best Odds: $11.00) is a good sprinter that resumes for the David Jolly hard. He won well first up last time in at Gawler before a fifth to Lumosty at Caulfield before running last of five here behind the quality mare Jennyfromtheblock. No trials, but he has class and his first up record is very good.
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Race Five (15:03) : Adelaide Galvanising Handicap (90) 2000m:
Back Me: 3 Flying Casino (Best Odds: $8.00) had some late backing last time out at Oakbank and thanks to a lovely patient steer from Jason Holder, the gelding kicked right away from his rivals in the straight to win impressively. He has a bit of upside and returns to his favourite track, so for mine, he has to go on top.
Big Danger: 10 Tenacitus (Best Odds: $3.60) is a Darren Weir trained galloper that ran over this trip at the Valley a couple of weeks back and tried very hard once again when running second to Zahspeed. He is bursting to win a race, and the stable has a fabulous record when sending horses over to SA.
Roughie: 4 Gladstone (Best Odds: $8.00) has been given a four week freshen up since winning impressive on the Parks track over 1950m, which followed up an eye catching fourth in the Launceston Cup. He will be better suited on the course proper here and he handles all conditions, so any rain won’t harm him.
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Race Six (15:43) : Farmers Union Iced Coffee Manihi Classic 1100m:
Back Me: Big watch on 5 Nostradamus (Best Odds: $6.50), formerly with Team Hawkes but is now with Phillip Stokes. Form really tapered off last prep, but his recent trial win here was outstanding and he could blow these away if he is on song.
Big Danger: 12 Tarco (Best Odds: $14.00) was on speed last time out in the Oakbank Stakes and gave a tremendous kick, but was nailed in the last stride by the in form mare Scratchy Lass. 1100m is about as far as she wants it, but the big key is getting Jason Holder back on, and he rides the gelding better than anyone else.
Roughie: 10 Cashed (Best Odds: $26.00) comes through the Oakbank Stakes where he closed off well late behind the in form mare Scratchy Lass. Go back to the Spring and she placed in the Schillaci, beating home Lankan Rupee. That’s good enough to be ultra competitive here.
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Race Seven (16:23) : Laelia Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Thames Court (Best Odds: $2.40) was given a lovely ride to win the Alexandra (1600m) at the Valley, and keep in mind she was only second up there, so there should be good upside with this girl and is well suited under the weights scale.
Big Danger: 5 Sweet Redemption (Best Odds: $11.00) is a tough filly for Gai Waterhouse. She also comes through the Alexandra where she attempted to lead all the way but just felt the pinch late. Gai has a wonderful record when travelling horses and she did win this race last year.
Roughie: 12 Scrum (Best Odds: $51.00) is a progressive filly for Tony McEvoy. She was too good in her maiden win first up before taking on the older horses at Balaklava where she sat last in the small field before peeling out and letting down strongly. Harder, but there is a bit to like and she will relish the mile.
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Race Eight (17:03) : Hughes Chauffeured Limousines Handicap (75) 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Mihany (Best Odds: $2.70) looks the good thing on the program. He let me down badly two back on the Parks track but bounced back emphatically with a spank job of his rivals during the Oakbank Carnival. Only has to repeat that here to take care of this lot.
Big Danger: 6 Ilovewhatsebrings (Best Odds: $5.00) has been given a little freshen up since winning impressively over this track/distance on Adelaide Cup Day, producing a brilliant finish from the back to win narrowly. Not sure he can win, but he should acquit himself well.
Roughie: 10 On A Dream (Best Odds: $9.00) hadn’t done much this time in prior to a much improved effort at Oakbank when running second to Mihany in that race mentioned above. He is the sort of horse where if he finds form, he generally holds it, so he can run well again.
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BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Mihany
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Thames Court
VALUE: Race Six Number 5 Nostradamus
Quaddie (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5, 10
Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 5, 11, 12, 14, 15, 18
Leg Four: 2
$50 Investment= 15.87% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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