Racing continues at Sportingbet Park this Wednesday, remaining on the Hillside circuit. The weather is overcast, the track is dead and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:50) : Great Southern Steeple 3300m Form Guide
Back Me: King Triton (Best Odds: $2.70) for me. He has been excellent on the flat this time in, and was also a dominant winner at Oakbank over the sticks. Generally saves his best for dry tracks, but can handle wet ground if the rain comes.
Big Danger: Man Of Class (Best Odds: $11.00) is the jumper who has the class factor on his side hence the big weight. He has been solid on the flat and has looked quite sharp in a couple of jumps trials. He has bigger fish to fry, but his quality will take him a long way towards victory.
Roughie: Palmero (Best Odds: $2.70) is another who has performed okay on the flat in recent starts and has also trialled well enough to say he will be competitive. Not sure he can beat the top two, but he does have the Smerdon/Pateman factor.
Race Two (13:30) : Jack Dow Memorial Hurdle 3300m Form Guide
Back Me: Could very well be one of the worst jumps races I’ll ever see. Auld Burns (Best Odds: $1.45), based on his flat form, should simply bolt in here. Has trialled a couple of times over the hurdles and has been quite good, including a second to Glencadam Gold. Should win.
Big Danger: Chappell (Best Odds: $6.00) got too far back in the hurdle race at the Bool last week. Made up good ground, but just got a long way out of his ground and couldn’t quite pull it back. He looks an up and comer who is capable of winning this.
Roughie: Take Out (Best Odds: $17.00) looked to have that hurdle race at the Bool safely in his keeping, but he saw the winning post and got a terrible fright. He is trained by the master and has found some form now.
Race Three (14:10) : Premier Signs Maiden Plate 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Kincaple Chief (Best Odds: $4.00) is bursting to win a race after two eye catchers from as many runs this time in, both over the 1400m here. Up to the mile, cherry ripe fitness wise and smaller field all help his winning claims.
Big Danger: Sammy The Snake (Best Odds: $7.50) closed off the race very nicely on debut at Geelong, running third to Famechon and One Inch Punch. Those two look to have a touch of quality about them, so that form line shouldn’t be underestimated. Knockout chance at odds.
Roughie: Princess Hussey (Best Odds: $3.40) is racing well at the moment without winning. Worked to the line well late at Bendigo behind Best Yet To Come, who franked that form with a second at Flemington on Saturday. Bigger track and longer straight will her cause.
Race Four (14:45): TMB Printing Handicap (70) 1300m Form Guide
Back Me: Looks a good race for Girl Guide (Best Odds: $2.40) to continue her winning ways. I liked what I saw at Mornington last start. She received pressure in front, handled it, kicked on the turn and safely held her rivals at bay. Ran smart time also, so that tells me she is a good mare who is going places. Has to overcome a tricky draw, but young McNeil is riding very well at the moment, so I’ll have faith in him to get this mare home.
Big Danger: Kona Breeze (Best Odds: $7.50) finally broke her maiden tag in fine style at Ararat, winning comfortably against an average lot. She needed a confidence boost, she got it, and now she can certainly go on with it.
Roughie: Princess Royale (Best Odds: $9.00) was well backed when resuming a Balaklava but just couldn’t quite peg the impressive Fine Approach, who ran third at Morphettville last weekend. Trialled very sharply before that, so she has come back really well and rates as a chance.
Race Five (15:20) : Mistable Handicap (78) 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Miss Outshine (Best Odds: $3.70) was excellent I thought first up when third to Lady Lakshmi given she sat back in a race dominated by the winner on the speed and made up good ground late. Should only improve both fitness wise and with the extra 300m.
Big Danger: Was very impressed by the first up win of Ferrari Star (Best Odds: $11.00) at Morphettville on the Parks track. He sat last in the run and never really looked likely from back there until getting narrow splits between runners and bursting through late to win. It is very hard to make up ground at that track, so I am intrigued to see how this gelding performs.
Roughie: Tooleybuc Kid (Best Odds: $2.90) looked the winner when racing over this distance on the Lakeside circuit a few weeks ago, but couldn’t hold off the finishing burst of Our Voodoo Prince, who won again at Flemington last weekend and looks destined for better things, so form wise, he is the horse to beat, but there is still a question on how genuine he is.
Race Six (15:55) : Sportingbet Best Tote Plus 5% Handicap (70) 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: All you can do is win, and that is what Oerter (Best Odds: $7.00) has done at his past three, winning quite impressively and putting a space on his rivals. The wide barrier means he will have to go further back than what I’d like, but this horse is absolutely flying and it’s hard to jump off his back.
Big Danger: Malabar Man (Best Odds: $6.00) got galloped on in the run last start when beaten a fair way by a future Melbourne Cup contender in Signoff at Bendigo during their stand alone meeting. Form prior to that was excellent, so give him another chance.
Roughie: Zataglio (Best Odds: $8.00) is a real one batter who doesn’t have gears, but he tries very hard and will run an honest race, as he did last start behind a handy Lloyd Williams import in Livery. Bigger track, strong tempo and Froggy sticking ensures he’ll be in the mix.
Race Seven (16:30) : Polytrack Handicap (70) 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Khutulun (Best Odds: $11.00) did a power of work on debut at Kyneton, sitting wide with no cover on a solid tempo, yet ambled to the front on the turn and dashed clear for a very smart win. Luke Oliver usually lets his horses go through the grades, but the fact he has sent her straight to town tells me there is some confidence.
Big Danger: Rezoned (Best Odds: $6.00) had been performing okay in town without winning, so Robert Smerdon sent her to to Cranbourne for a confidence boost, and she got it with a good win, aided by a gun ride from Chad Schofield. Back to city level, but she has found form now.
Roughie: Alysiana (Best Odds: $6.50) is still a maiden but is racing well nonetheless. Was off the bit a fair way from home at Cranbourne, but picked up late to run second to Rezoned, who she meets 1.5kg better off at the weights here. A definite chance with luck in running.
Race Eight (17:05) : Le Pine Funerals Handicap (78) 1300m Form Guide
Back Me: Grand Emperor (Best Odds: $7.00) took care of a handy field first up at Kyneton, sitting last before swooping around them on the turn and dashing clear in the straight. That was his first run in eight months, so there is the query of racing flat second up, but it was hard not to be impressed by that win.
Big Danger: Elwick Jack (Best Odds: $9.00) hasn’t been seen since running second to Sistine Demon at Caulfield in early February. That form is fantastic given that horse has gone on to win at Stakes level and win a host of other races. Elwick Jack should roll forward and prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Big watch on the Waller stayer Pythageron (Best Odds: $4.80), which is making his Australian debut off the back of a solid performances at the trials.
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Best Bet: Race Two Number 4 Auld Burns (Best Odds: $1.45)
Next Best: Race Four Number 2 Girl Guide (Best Odds: $2.45)
Best Roughie: Race Seven Number 12 Khutulun (Best Odds: $11.00)
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 7
Leg Two: 1, 3, 7, 10
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5, 11, 12
Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 8
$50 Investment= 13.02% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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