Caulfield will host Melbourne’s feature race meeting on Saturday although it will take a back seat to Randwick’s Derby day. The meeting consists of large open fields with many of them looking like very good betting races that will provide punters plenty of value. Our Best Bet of the day is at great odds and so are many of our other tips so a lot of them can be backed each way with confidence.
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Race One (12:30) : Sportingbet.com.au Hcp 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: Beliveau (Best Odds: $7.00) looks to have the most improvement left in him in what looks to be a very thin race with a lot of these runners perhaps running to save their flat race careers. He was well beaten by Signoff last start but should have finished closer, that looks to be good form here and looks a great each way chance.
Big Danger: Sneak A Peek (Best Odds: $3.70) at his best would be winning this easily but he has shown to be well below his best this preparation being beaten over twenty lengths in his last two starts. Will find this much easier so he has to be included.
Roughie: Only A Pleasure (Best Odds: $11.00) has had just the one start in Australia which wasn’t great but he should improve from that run. Trained by Chris Waller so he has to be respected in a race like this and i think he has to be given a big chance in a weak field like this at double figure odds.
Race Two (13:05) : Mindy Green 2yo Plate 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Armada (Best Odds: $4.00) is a well bred colt from the Peter Moody stable which has been firing lately. Interesting to note he was in the Sydney stable where he trialled well before being brought to Melbourne. He looks to have plenty of ability and if he can transfer that onto race conditions he will be hard to beat.
Big Danger: Petrology (Best Odds: $2.80) looks to be the best of the raced gallopers in this race. He scored a good win on debut at Mornington where he hit the line well. He should improve with the extra distance and with a run under his belt he looks a big chance.
Roughie: Selvatico (Best Odds: $17.00) lead before weakening at Bendigo last time out where he was in the market. He is likely to take a forward position again which is always an advantage in two year old races and with the drop in weight and race fitness i am expecting him to improve.
Race Three (13:40) : Echucamoama.com Hcp (90) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Notice Received (Best Odds: $26.00) is coming through the Gold Bracelet after four months off the track and despite jumping slowly he wasn’t beaten far in a good quality race. He drops in weight here and he has proven to like Caulfield, jumps fro barrier three and will get an easy run throughout. He has a good record second up which he is and has won his only try over the track and distance. Will be at great each way value and will be hard to beat.
Big Danger: Lord Durante (Best Odds: $17.00) is a quality galloper and always gives his best. He will have to carry the top weight in the race but he has a very good record at the distance and likes Caulfield. He will likely get the run of the race from barrier 5 and with Chris Symonds in the saddle he will have every chance.
Roughie: Digitalism (Best Odds: $9.00) has a very good record in the wet and with the drop in weight and racing back at Caulfield i think he is a major chance in this race. His two runs this preparation haven’t been great but they haven’t been bad either and he showed he has a lot of class last preparation which i think we will see today.
Race Four (14:15) : Story Landscaping Hcp 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Resistant (Best Odds: $9.00) is coming through a very good form race at Flemington on Saturday where he got squeezed in a vital period of the race but hit the line well late. He draws a better barrier here and as seen in the Bendigo Guineas he will show a very good turn of foot over the 1400m. Jye McNeil will ride and claim 3kg which gets him in the weights really well in this race and he will be the horse to beat.
Big Danger: Wildebeast (Best Odds: $15.00) steps up in grade here but he does get a weight allowance for doing so. He did a lot wrong at Morphettville last start but still put in a very good run behind a talented galloper in the way of Rich Jack. He will need a bit of luck from the barrier but he is likely to go forward and should be able to slot in one off the fence. Likely to be at good odds and despite his form not saying so i think he is up to this class and will be very competitive.
Roughie: Tikitour (Best Odds: $12.00) has had a lot of time on the sidelines and will most likely need a run to show his best but he raced against some very good horses in his career in which he was very competitive. He should have improved from that campaign and you always ave to respect Tony McEvoy’s runners in town. He gets in the weights well and will get a good run from the barrier.
Race Five (14:50) : Galilee Series Final 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: Bring Something (Best Odds: $3.20) took a long time to break his maiden but that was due to contesting some very good races in his career. Trainer Ken Keys decided to get it out of the way last start and he won by a big margin. I think he can continue that winning form on Saturday and strike up back to back victories.
Big Danger: Calendar Lad (Best Odds: $5.50) is another galloper who has contested some tough races in his career which is probably why his record doesn’t look too good. His run at Moonee Valley last start had a lot of merit to it in my opinion and from barrier 4 he will get a good trip throughout and looks a big danger in the race.
Roughie: Coup Badger (Best Odds: $21.00) has only had the four career starts including a five length maiden win at Seymour which was impressive. She stepped up in class at her next start and ran well at Sandown before another decent run at Mornington in a good field. She will take a lot of improvement from those runs and in what looks to be a pretty weak field here i think she can figure at good odds.
Race Six (15:30) : 7-eleven Pink Ribbon Cup 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Natuzzi (Best Odds: $4.80) will be having his first run in Australia since coming from New Zealand and i think he has found a very winnable race on debut. He was very good in winning the Lightning Handicap at Trentham last start when carrying the big weight and with a bit of luck from barrier 8 here i think he is definitely the horse the rest of the field will need to beat.
Big Danger: Rich Jack (Best Odds: $9.00) is a lightly raced galloper who has shown a ton of ability and will continue to improve. He won a decent race at Morphettville last start when jumping as the even money favourite and he will drop 6kg from that run. He has drawn in an awkward barrier (11) but with a bit of luck throughout the run he will be right in the finish.
Roughie: Ventic (Best Odds: $26.00) was gallant in defeat last start at Moonee Valley where he lead throughout before weakening late in a race that had a lot of early pace in it. He should be ridden in a similar manor today and i think he should get quite a comfortable lead and give a very good kick in the straight at big odds.
Race Seven (16:10) : Cath White Memorial Hcp 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Bloomingdale Miss (Best Odds: $8.00) has had absolutely no luck in her past few runs where she has been held up but to her credit hasn’t been beaten far in any of them. She has drawn barrier 14 which i think will help her here as she will go back and hopefully get one off the fence and in doing so prevent her needing luck in the run. She is likely to jump at big odds and i think she will be right in the finish in a winnable race.
Big Danger: Elite Elle (Best Odds: $3.70) ran a massive race last start when finishing second after missing the jump. She should have won that race comfortably and her stats suggest that over this track and distance she again will be very hard to beat so i think punters that backed her last start and are still feeling it, should stick with her.
Roughie: Just A Girl (Best Odds: $7.00) will be having her first start in Victoria and looking at her Sydney form she will be hard to beat at her first try going ant clockwise. She has good form around some of the better mares in the country and Chris Waller runners always have to be kept safe in these types of races.
Race Eight (16:50) : The Pavilion Plate 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: Backstedt (Best Odds: $7.00) looks a very good bet here at the weights. He drops in distance slightly from his last run in the Yarra Valley Cup which i thought he should have won. He won well over the Flemington carnival in the Spring and if he can replicate that run he will be beating this field on Saturday quite comfortably.
Big Danger: Bass Strait (Best Odds: $9.00) on his day is by far the best horse in this race, two starts ago he showed a glimpse of his three year old form and the stewards report said enough to put a line through his last run. If the real Bass Strait turns up on Saturday he will be winning so he must be kept safe.
Roughie: Kitten On The Run (Best Odds: $9.00) i think has gone under the radar a bit here and should start over the odds in the market. His three runs in Australia to date have all been of merit and the step up in distance here will definitely suit.
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Best Bet: Race Seven Number 15 Bloomingdale Miss (Best Odds: $8.00)
Next Best: Race Six Number 4 Natuzzi (Best Odds: $4.80)
Best Roughie: Race Three Number 16 Notice Received (Best Odds: $26.00)
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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