Flemington will host a fantastic days racing on Super Saturday with every race on the program being black type including two Group 1 races those being the Newmarket Handicap and the Australian Cup. Melbourne looks like it will provide perfect weather for the meeting with the track currently a Dead 4 with it likely to improve to a Good 3 come race time.
As with any good quality meetings there is usually a lot of value on offer in most races and Saturday is no different with just the one race which will jump with an odds on favourite which will be Norzita in the Kewney Stakes where she looks hard to beat. We take a look at each race on the day and we think it will be a profitable day despite some very even races.
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Race One: Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Bulbula looks good value in the first on Saturday in what is a tough race to start the day with two year old races always throwing up surprises.
Don’t Back Me: It’s hard to say not to back a runner when there is little exposed form in a two year old race but i am happy to risk Essie’s Pride here as she has shown to be a bit of a hassle during her races including missing the starts.
Big Danger: Montsegur has been racing against the best two year olds in Melbourne this season and deserves to start as favourite for the race and looks the horse to beat.
Roughie: Diva Dee has definitely shown enough in her two starts to say she can win on Saturday and looks the best chance outside of the favourites.
Race Two: Security Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Looking at the runners in the race i think there are two winning chances in the race but have gone with Angelic Light due to the extra value and the fact she is use to Victorian way of going.
Don’t Back Me: Saturn Rock ran on well last start although i think the quality of that race is below what he will meet here and i think he will get too far back against quality opposition.
Big Danger: She’s A Fox looks the biggest danger in the race although i am a little worried about her having her first run going anti clockwise and may get lost allowing Angelic Light to get the better of her.
Roughie: The best roughie in the race is Dazzler who is currently $21 in the market. They will probably be a bit too quick for her first up but i expect her to be hitting the line strong.
Race Three: Sires Produce Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: This looks a very tough race to predict on paper with a lot of different form lines heading into the race. Thus i am going with some value in the way of Champollion who’s run i thought had a lot of merit last start behind Good Job Bro on a heavy track and at $19 looks a good bet.
Don’t Back Me: Weinholt won by an impressive margin last start but it was in country grade he steps up to city grade again on Saturday where he failed in his first run and i think he is a risk at his current odds of $3.60.
Big Danger: The form around Shamus Award looks good and despite the fact he hasn’t won the race he looks a very good chance to win on Saturday where i thought he would have opened as favourite.
Roughie: I like the Good Job Bro form heading into this race thus i have to go with the other runner to come out of the race where Northern Jewel definitely wasn’t disgraced.
Race Four: Blamey Stakes 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: It’s hard tipping a horse that hasn’t won in over two years although the way this race will be run will suit Maluckyday perfectly and his first up run in the Futurity Stakes suggests he is at his best and he is not weighted to win.
Don’t Back Me: Callanish i feel hasn’t lived up the the early wraps people had on him and his two runs this preparation have been disappointing and he looks like he will be pressured in front again on Saturday.
Big Danger: Puissance De Lune looks the biggest danger in the race and from barrier one he should be able to sit just behind the leaders and switch off their heels early in the straight although with 59kg first up over a mile he could be vulnerable.
Roughie: There is no exposed form for Mutual Trust but is an international Group 1 winner so he warrants some respect.
Race Five: Kewney Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: I’m not someone who likes to back odds on favourites but i cannot look past Norzita here. She drifted when first up in the Typhoon Tracy Stakes and punters knew she would be better second up and if that’s the case she will be winning with a leg in the air here.
Don’t Back Me: Members Joy is a talented filly but here strike rate isn’t the best and i doubt she will be able to beat Norzita with equal weights.
Big Danger: After winning her first two starts everyone was talking up Red Fez but she disappointed last start but it was an oddly run race and i think she is better than the field she faced there and is the main danger to the favourite.
Roughie: Alzora has good form around You’re So Good who came out and ran second in the Australian Guineas on the weekend and at $21 looks a good each way bet.
Race Six: Newmarket Handicap 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: You can’t go past a horse who has won 11 from 11 and thats why i think Barakey is a very good bet at $5.50 in the Newmarket. He was scratched from the Oakleigh Plate at the barriers and it’s hard to say he wouldn’t have won that race and starts as the even money favourite here.
Don’t Back Me: I think Moment Of Change is way under the odds here. His Lightning Stakes run flatters him more than some people think you just have to looks at the horses he finished ahead of, then look at this field he should be double the odds in my opinion. Im not saying he can’t win but is way too short.
Big Danger: Luckygray has a perfect record both for first up runs and over the distance. He will have to carry the top weight but in Group 1 races you have to back Group 1 horses which he is.
Roughie: With Woorim being scratched i think the best value in the race is Ortensia. She has shown her quality before and im happy to forgive her last run and think she can certainly bounce back down the straight today.
Race Seven: Australian Cup 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Green Moon will carry 59kg in the race but so will most of the field. He returns to Flemington after winning the Melbourne Cup and is good over the distance and second up i think he is good value and is the horse to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Super Cool has been heavily backed in betting and is now into $4.40 equal favourite which is under the odds against this quality opposition he can win the race but at that price im happy to bet around him.
Big Danger: Mr Moet has put in two good runs this preparation and is ticking along nicely heading into the Australian Cup. Carried 59kg last start and hit the line strongly and Flemington should suit him perfectly.
Roughie: I think Tanby is a great each way chance in the race $51. He has performed over the distance the track and has a very good second up record.
Race Eight: Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Storm Burst i thought was very unlucky last start and should have gone close to winning. Drops 2kg in this race and draws a wider barrier which i dont think is a bad thing has she will go back and it gives her clear room to come to the outside in the long Flemington straight.
Don’t Back Me: Perfectly Stunning has won her last two starts but she faces a much tougher task on Saturday and at $6 im happy to leave her out.
Big Danger: Hi Belle was unlucky in the Mannerism Stakes when running third. Should get a decent run on Saturday and looks the biggest danger to Storm Burst.
Roughie: There has been quite a few scratchings in the race so has cut a lot of value out of the race but i still feel Epingle is over the odds at $21 and i think Glen Boss could give her a peach of a ride from barrier five and fill the placings.
Race Nine: Super Saturday Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: British General i thought was very impressive last start when running second to Launay and i think he is the horse they have to beat on Saturday.
Don’t Back Me: Star Of Giselle hasn’t been running against this sort of competition and she is under the odds when looking at the race.
Big Danger: Sheila’s Star has run very well her last two starts and i think she can go one better here today after some important scratchings in the race.
Roughie: Shanghai Warrior looks a good chance back at Flemington and if he can return to some of his best form he should go close at double figure odds.
Best Bet: Your not going to get much value amongst the Best Bet of the day although Norzita looks very hard to beat and backing a short priced favourite that wins is much better than backing another horse at value that loses.
Next Best: After the scratching of Fawkner im going with the second of my Team Williams selections in Green Moon. I think everything favours him in this race and will be super hard to beat today.
Best Roughie: There isn’t a lot of value on the card although there are some races that i think a long shot has more chances of getting up in and the Sires Produce Stakes is one of them which is why im making Champollion my best roughie of the day. They ran a quick time in the heavy at his last start and will prefer the drier ground.
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