A strong eight race card will be run and won at Morphettville on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres from the 1200m-400m; Out three metres for the remainder.
Race One (13:29) : Adelaide Galvanising Handicap (82) 2500m:
Back Me: 4 Scelto (Best Odds: $3.20) attempted to lead all the way at Ladbrokes Park last time out and toughed it out strongly when third to impressive winner Ferro Nero. Given he looks the leader, I don’t see the 2500m being an issue, and he gets the services of Dom Tourneur.
Big Danger: 5 Loncava (Best Odds: $2.20) was prohibitive odds when running over this track/distance last time out but he let the punters down when running a well beaten second to Tunes, who has failed sine, but in the Bagot, obviously a much harder race than this. I doubt he can win, but he should run well nonetheless.
Roughie: 1 Celtic Prince (Best Odds: $7.50) is on the back up from last Saturday when racing over 2000m where he ran fourth to all the way winner Gravitational. Up to 2500m suits, slight drop in depth and the small field should suit.
Race Two (14:04) : Exelsuper Maiden Plate 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Phidias (Best Odds: $7.50) is a first starter for Tony McEvoy who trialled here on December 14 when second to Torcida, who ran well first up and runs here also. These two look the standouts, but the McEvoy yard has had a good run with first starters, and he has gate one.
Big Danger: 7 Torcida (Best Odds: $3.60) was formerly with Team Corstens before being transferred to the Phillip Stokes yard. This son of Nicconi resumed at Gawler and worked home strongly late to run a close up second to impressive winner Snipetron. Should take good improvement from that and looks the main threat to Phidias.
Roughie: 3 Cobber (Best Odds: $4.80) has been given a month freshen up since running third to Kallara Village over 1250m on the Parks track, flashing home late to just miss. Harder here, but there is a bit to like about him and he can run home well for exotics.
Race Three (14:39) : Seaton Hotel Handicap (82) 1050m:
Back Me: Matty Neilson produced a 12/10 to get 6 Tarco (Best Odds: $2.10) home last week over 900m at Murray Bridge, getting over to sit behind the speed near the rail from barrier nine and from the home turn onwards, it was pretty to watch. He is a very good horse when right, and from what I have seen in two runs this time in, he looks back to his best.
Big Danger: 3 Hotel Sierra (Best Odds: $4.40) resumes here for Darren Weir. This mare hasn’t raced since March when finishing behind stablemate and Group l winner Platelet at Moonee Valley on William Reid night. This looks a suitable first up target, and on her best form, she’d just about take care of these.
Roughie: 1 Casino Wizard (Best Odds: $10.00) resumes here for Lee Creek after stringing together a couple of impressive wins on the course proper during the Winter, with the second win being over subsequent Stakes winner Red Eclipse. No trials leading in, but runs well fresh and has a solid record on the track.
Race Four (15:14) : UBET Adelaide Cup March 14 Handicap (64) 1050m:
Back Me: 7 Bag D’Air (Best Odds: $8.00) at $15? No no no. Wrong price. Should be around $5-$6. There was a bit to like about her debut win here on December 18, leading all the way and winning impressively despite doing plenty wrong. Time was slower than the race Vicki’s Boy won, but there is more upside and she has natural improvement.
Big Danger: 2 Burst Away (Best Odds: $2.10) ran second to Vicki’s Boy and his effort was very good considering he was first up and sitting wide no cover for the entire trip. Meets the winner 4.5kg better off, so he should clearly turn the tables, and that is the strongest form reference.
Roughie: 5 Sir Charlestown (Best Odds: $15.00) ran third to Vicki’s Boy and Burst Away, and despite the fact he had his chance, his effort was pretty good. He meets Vicki’s Boy 2kg better off and draws well again yet is at $11. Good overs for this horse also.
Race Five (15:49) : Nespresso Handicap (75) 2018m:
Back Me: 2 Lotion (Best Odds: $3.40) was heavily backed when racing over the mile here on Boxing Day and the support was justified when the gelding was given a peach of a ride from LIndop and that won the race for the horse. Up to 2000m should be no issue and he is unbeaten in three runs on the track.
Big Danger: 11 Sir Leliani (Best Odds: $8.50) ran over 2400m at Ladbrokes Park last start and was perhaps ridden upside down when attempting to lead all the way. His first up run was very good where he was ridden with a sit, so if that happens, and along with the drop in grade, he’ll be tough to hold out.
Roughie: 3 Not A Zerprise (Best Odds: $17.00) ran in the Clare Cup last time out and just forget he went around given he copped severe pressure in front and faded badly out of it over the concluding stages. Looks the leader here, and if he can get a cheap sectional, he’ll be hard to run down.
Race Six (16:29) : Hughes Chauffeured Limousines Handicap (70) 1600m:
Back Me: 3 Rationality (Best Odds: $2.25) was heavily backed when running over 1400 on the Parks track last start and was ridden a treat by apprentice Emily Finnegan, who took the Arrowfield galloper to the front, and with only 52kg on his back, he just proved too good. Has to rise a touch in weight, and I think he is suspect at the mile, but ability and class wise, he is clearly the best horse in the race.
Big Danger: 5 Swinging Soldier (Best Odds: $4.00) ran over this track/distance on Boxing Day when working home strongly to run a close up second to Lotion. That form reads very well for this race, and given he was only second up there, he should have a stack of upside left in the tank.
Roughie: 9 Voodoo Black Magic (Best Odds: $34.00) resumed over this distance at Strathalbyn and just had to endure a touch too much pressure in front when a tiring fourth to Bianconned. His trial win prior was sharp and he should be much better off here.
Race Seven (17:09) : Moet And Chandon Handicap (70) 1200m:
Back Me: 7 Living Large (Best Odds: $4.40) ran over this track/distance last start where he tired to run fifth to Tipperary Lil, beaten just over a length. That horse ran well last Saturday, so the form has held up well, and the month freshen up should be ideal for this Tony McEvoy trained galloper.
Big Danger: 5 Trueno (Best Odds: $9.00) ran over 1100m here on Boxing Day when sitting wide with cover before peeling clear and letting down nicely late to run a close up third to Segregation. Back up to 1200m should only be beneficial, and with a likely strong tempo here, he’ll get his chance to ambush late.
Roughie: 13 Unspun (Best Odds: $51.00) was wide all the way when resuming at Gawler and dropped out to finish down the track behind Carashan Girl, who will be a chance in the last race. Draws much better, drops in weight and he does have a solid second up record.
Race Eight (17:45) : Natasha & Ryan’s Wedding Handicap (75) 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Modesty (Best Odds: $3.10) strung together two impressive wins to kick off her career under the care of Daniel Bowman before the mare headed to Ladbrokes Park where she ran an even sixth to in form galloper Shakespearean Lass. This is a big drop in depth and based on her two wins, she’d take care of these if she brings that here.
Big Danger: 11 Regal Magnus (Best Odds: $3.30) ran over this track/distance on Boxing Day and looked the winner, but the daughter of Magnus was bloused right on the line by Miss Adele, who charged home near the inside. She should get every chance from the gate here and take some beating.
Roughie: 8 Tidy Prophet (Best Odds: $8.00) ran fifth in that Miss Adele race, and her run was an absolute beauty given she was first up over an unsuitable distance and was back near last in the run. 1200m is still short of her best, but it’s hard to ignore what she did at her resumption.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 3 Rationality
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 6 Waxing
VALUE: Race Seven Number 13 Unspun
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 11
Leg Two: 3
Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 7, 13
Leg Four: 4, 6, 8, 11
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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