Cup day is done and dusted. Now it’s time to shift to the fairer sex for Oaks Day on Thursday, where we will see a potential star in Aloisia stamp herself as the best filly of her generation. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Oaks Field 🏆: View the VRC Oaks Field
Race 1. (12:15) DrinkWise Plate (70) 1700m
6 Bint El Bedu (Bet Now: $17.00) on top for me in the opener. Mick Price trained mare who resumed over the mile at Pakenham and while she beat an inferior field to the one she faces here, I thought she was great, especially the last 75m where she attacked the line and wanted the win. Keen to see what she does here at the Flemington 1700m.
8 I’m A Princess (Bet Now: $11.00) is a talented mare for the Tony McEvoy yard who comes over from SA with some pretty decent form next to its name. Ran over the mile at Morphettville last start and looked home for the most part but Hussybay drove through late and bloused. That horse won last Saturday, so the form is holding up quite nicely.
16 Sworn Evidence (Bet Now: $4.40) is a three year old filly taking on the older horses but I think she can measure up here. She ran in a 1400m three year old fillies race on Caulfield Cup Day where nothing really went right for her tempo/track wise but she stuck on pretty well. Think she will be much better suited here and is a live threat for sure.
7 Florida Keys (Bet Now: $61.00) is a Pat Carey trained mare who should appreciate the rise to 1700m. She ran over 1400m on Geelong Cup Day and her run was quite good I thought behind Good Therapy. That horse had an absolute picnic in front whereas this mare was tucked away in a bad pocket, never really clear. She can bounce back here now she’s drawn to get clear air.
Race 2. (12:55) Twitter Trophy (90) 1800m
9 Ebediyin (Bet Now: $7.50) looks the way to go. Darren Weir trained import who has had a few runs now down under and has been quite good, the latest coming last Friday night at the Valley when beaten by the hard fit Jolie’s Cafe in a very good effort. That was his first run in nearly a month, so he has upside and draws to get good cover and launch.
3 Mr Garcia (Bet Now: $3.80) is an Andreas Wohler trained horse that runs here and I think he will take some beating here. Form overseas reads okay, the subsequent form at least, and you always have to give extra points to the internationals. Was down to run on Cup Day but they will run here. Good enough for me.
4 Souchez (Bet Now: $12.00) is a definite threat for mine. James Cummings trained galloper who has been a tease for a while now but I thought there was merit in his last start effort at Randwick on Everest Day. Just got too far back on a day where those near the speed were advantaged. Form out of that has been great and I think big track/1800m looks an ideal recipe.
11 Noumea (Bet Now: $17.00) is the watch horse. Former import who made his Australian debut in the Winter at Rosehill and didn’t fire a shot. Spelled, sent to Melbourne and resumed at Caulfield on Blue Sapphire Day over 1400m where I thought he was a real eye catcher behind Steel Frost. With natural improvement from that outing, has to rate highly here.
Race 3. (13:35) Off The Track Subzero Handicap (90) 1400m
6 Silvera (Bet Now: $4.60) does have the form on the board so I’ll lean his way. Tony McEvoy trained four year old who comes here off the back of a strong third at Caulfield on Blue Sapphire Day behind Odeon, with that form holding up on Manikato night via Dodging Bullets. Jamie Kah steers and she’s the numero uno in the Adelaide jockey ranks. Should be respected enormously.
5 Urban Ruler (Bet Now: $4.00) is a talented grey for Greg Eurell who was backed as if unbeatable when resuming on Geelong Cup and aided by a vintage steer from Olly, the four year old surged hard late and finished best in a close finish. Has enormous upside to come and he does love racing at Flemington. Deserved favourite.
3 Time To Torque (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Kelly Doughty trained galloper from the Gold Coast who resumed a few weeks back at Doomben and he landed a massive plunge for the punters. He started $6 after as much as $26 was offered days prior. That form has been fanked with Carzoff winning at Rosehill. Been set for this, draws well and gets Williams.
Had 4 Powerline (Bet Now: $21.00) drawn a gate I’d be all over him here. I think on form he’s probably the pick of these, but he hasn’t raced for exactly 12 months given he last raced in this event last year when down the track behind Pepperano. Looks wound up to my eye off a couple of sharp trials and Bowman steers.
Race 4. (14:15) Melbourne Cup Carnival Country Final (80) 1600m
12 Savaju (Bet Now: $9.00) is a talented mare for the Shaun Dwyer camp who should take some beating here. She comes through the Bendigo heat of this series on Bendigo Cup Day last Wednesday. Never really looked like picking up Night’s Watch, but her late splits were very good and she charged to the line and through. Think she turns the tables here.
2 Night’s Watch (Bet Now: $3.10) is a beautiful type for Darren Weir and OTI who had put in a couple of below par runs before bouncing back in the Bendigo heat mentioned above, where he was dominant under John Allen and won impressively. Draw is an absolute nightmare but, which is why he is relegated to here.
3 Emoji (Bet Now: $8.50) was given absolutely no hope in the Geelong heat on Geelong Cup Day. Ethan Brown had the horse 3/4 wide throughout in a slowly run affair. How he still attacked the line amazed me. Clear run of the race for mine. McEvoy takes over and he gets gate one. I think the double figures is overs big time.
7 Astro Castro (Bet Now: $10.00) stunned many with his debut win here a while back and he hadn’t gone on with it since, but that changed in the Geelong heat of this series on Geelong Cup Day, sitting up outside the speed, kicking hard in the straight and then fending them off. Looks smart and should go close from the draw.
Race 5. (14:55) TCL TV Stakes 1400m
2 Supply And Demand (Bet Now: $5.00) is a talented galloper for the Waterhouse/Bott team who is heading towards the Perth Carnival. Resumed over 1400m at Randwick and produced one of the runs of the day I thought when second to stablemate Cabeza de Vaca given he is better suited over further. Remains at 1400m which is the worry, but I think he has the class/quality.
9 Echo Effect (Bet Now: $4.60) is a quality galloper for the Kirsten Buchanan stable who comes through the Moonga on Caulfield Cup Day where he did a power of work midrace on speed yet was still there when they hit the line, running third to Ulmann. Down in the weights, draws well, big track should suit…ticks alot of boxes.
5 Hellova Street (Bet Now: $3.80) is a ripper from Tassie for the Brunton camp. Had good support when racing over 1200m at the Valley on Manikato night where he sat up near the speed. Hit the lead for a few strides but Suspense kicked back and proved too tough. Looking for the 1400m now, maps well, loves Flemington and Avdulla steers.
Not so much a long shot but 1 Ulmann (Bet Now: $5.00) is another that loves Flemington and looks well placed here. Couldn’t have asked for a better ride from Lane in the Moonga on Caulfield Cup Day, sitting behind a brutal speed before popping out and having last say on stablemate Burning Front. Should be hard fit now and Lane remain on.
Race 6. (15:35) Absolut Stakes 1000m
2 Ball Of Muscle (Bet Now: $2.40) is short, but given his form, he has to go on top. Gave an almighty sight in the Sydney Stakes on Everest Day and gave In Her Time a real fright but that mare just had class to get her home, and she’s franked that by being unlucky when second in the Manikato. If he handles the straight, I think Ball Of Muscle wins.
3 Badajoz (Bet Now: $5.50) is another that is going superb at the moment, with James Cummings figuring out this bloke is very good at the short course. He ran in the 955m race mentioned above and just had no luck at all also when third to Gun Case. Trained here, so I’m sure he’s had a look down the straight before, and he’s hard fit.
9 Palazo Publico (Bet Now: $12.00) is a talented mare that is first up here for Matty Smith and we know this stable can find a winner during Cup Week. This girl resumes and looks ready to go off the back of three sharp trials, the latest coming last week at Randwick where she ran sub 33 her final 600m in the trial. Couldn’t be more fitter.
10 Highly Geared (Bet Now: $31.00) is a ripping mare for the Gary Kirkup yard. She ran in Alinghi on Caulfield Cup Day where she just did a bit too much work in the run on speed and folded up late when fifth to the classy Fuhryk. Back to 1000m and down the straight suits her pattern perfectly and I can see her running a race at odds.
Race 7. (16:15) Seppelt Wines Stakes 1800m
15 Sweet Victory (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Mark Newnham trained filly who looks well placed here in what looks a pretty weak/even Stakes race. Loved the way she went about her business in breaking the maiden tag last time out at Hawkesbury. She hit the front very early on in the straight and she could have easily wandered about. Nah, she went right on with it and spanked them. Good sign I feel and I’ll be in her corner.
2 Sambro (Bet Now: $3.10) is on the quick back up for the Waller camp after racing on Saturday in the Carbine Club. Had three wide cover throughout before Walker gave him clear air and he dashed to the front 250m out, only to be outsprinted late by Levendi. If he handles the back up, he’s one of the hardest to beat here.
If you backed 14 Pageantry (Bet Now: $11.00) in the Fillies Classic on Cox Plate…apologies for bringing up the nightmare. She looked to be going quite well behind the speed before the leader Mintha put up the white flag and Pageantry got dragged back to last and from that point on, it was a barrier trial. Should get better luck here and is the knockout chance.
11 Woulda Thought So (Bet Now: $16.00) is a progressive three year old for the Hayes/Dabernig team who pulled up lame after contesting the Gothic last time out on Caulfield Cup Day, which would explain his poor effort. The win prior, albeit in a Ballarat maiden, was quite impressive and I am happy to give him another look.
Race 8. (17:00) Kennedy Oaks 2500m
Been saying for months that 1 Aloisia (Bet Now: $1.70 ODDS BOOST) is the Oaks filly and I hope she doesn’t let me down on the big stage. Her three runs this prep, all of her Australian runs really, have been top shelf. Blew the Myer Classic winner away in the Thousand Guineas away before toying with the then Derby fav and smashing the boys. If you smash the boys this time of year, you’re usually very good. She’s a star.
4 Pinot (Bet Now: $7.50 ODDS BOOST) looks the obvious threat. Her form is second tier to what Aloisia has been doing but by the same token, she has been impressive and her Ethereal win, aided by bias, but still, it was outstanding. She will make the running I think and make sure this is a proper 2500m.
2 Luvaluva (Bet Now: $10.00 ODDS BOOST) has been set for this Carnival since before her debut win at Goulburn. I don’t think the 2500m is no issue, but I will say I thought she was flattered by an unbelievable ride from Blake Shinn. Sucked up sucked up sucked up before angling clear and finishing them off late. She will run well. Can she win? I doubt it.
3 Bring Me Roses (Bet Now: $34.00 ODDS BOOST) is out to a silly price. I doubt she wins, but there were excuses for her in the Wakeful. She was wide most of the way, pulled her head off and by the time she hit the straight, she was gassed. Blinkers come off, so she should relax, Currie jumps back on and as a place chance, I could have something on.
Race 9. (17:45) Kennedy Plate 1100m
I’ll be shocked if 13 Wrapsody (Bet Now: $14.00) doesn’t measure up here. Aaron Purcell trained filly who resumed in a 1000m maiden at Echuca and she won as if she was Black Caviar. Smashed the clock, won by six, and pretty much did it without being extended. Ear Muffs are on to relax in front of the big crowd. If she handles that atmosphere, she’s one of the hardest to beat.
5 Demerara (Bet Now: $5.00) trialled up a storm here prior to racing at the Valley on Cox Plate Day where she looked to be bolting outside the speed but she just got the wobbles on the turn and couldn’t regain momentum when third to Blondie. Trained here, so that should help her cause somewhat and her wins in Sydney were too good to dismiss.
7 Smart Coupe (Bet Now: $8.00) is a smart filly trained on the track for the Ellerton/Zahra team who resumed on Manikato night at the Valley where she just did a bit wrong in the run behind the speed and by the time she got out, he didn’t have the ping we expected when third to all the way winner Sam’s Image. If she relaxes in the run, she’s a live threat.
16 She’s Popular (Bet Now: $14.00) is a beautifully bred filly for the Hayes/Dabernig team who gave them a cold when winning on debut at Kilmore. Yes, didn’t beat much, but ran decent time and she did everything right. Jumped well, sat on speed, relaxed and then when asked, she sprinted and dashed right away. Stable must have a decent opinion to step her up to blacktype immediately.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Aloisia
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Ball Of Muscle
VALUE: Race Nine Number 13 Wrapsody
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 9
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 14, 15
Leg Three: 1
Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 13, 16
$50 Investment= 25.51% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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