An outstanding card of racing has been assembled for Randwick this Saturday where it is Randwick Guineas Day. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:30) Wenona Girl Quality 1200m
1 Spright (Bet Now: $3.30) just beats these doesn’t she? Been waiting and waiting for her to drop back to mares grade for a kill and I think she’ll get said kill here. She ran an enormous race first up in the Oakleigh Plate, producing outstanding late splits off a brutal tempo when fifth to Booker. She’s flying this girl, back to Randwick, up in trip and now taking on the mares…gee she looks well placed.
3 Winter Bride (Bet Now: $5.00) is the x factor. Toby Edmonds trains this talented mare, who hasn’t raced since Derby Day down the Flemington straight when on speed and folding late behind Osborne Bulls, but by then she was probably a tired horse and looking for the paddock. Been given a good break and looked sharp in a Gold Coast trial win a couple of weeks back. Keen to see what she does.
An interesting runner here is 4 La Bella Diosa (Bet Now: $9.50), a Hayes/Dabernig trained mare who resumes. She looked good early on in the Spring but once the races got harder, she didn’t measure up. The Wodonga trial/Flemington jumpout have been nothing to jump up and down about, but she did trial similar to that prior to resuming last prep where she won so don’t underestimate her.
Race 2. (13:10) Fireball Stakes 1100m
I’ve had something small on 6 Baller (Bet Now: $4.20) to win the Galaxy because I think a hard 1100m will be no issue for him. He resumed over the 1100m at Rosehill two weeks ago and it was a lovely ride from Tommy that got him home, stalking the good speed before angling into clear air, waiting a fair while to let down given he was first up and he got there. Think he’ll take good improvement from that and is clearly one of the hardest to beat.
I’m expecting much more aggressive tactics aboard 2 Sandbar (Bet Now: $4.80). They just rode him too cute in the Eskimo Prince first up and the sit/sprint scenario isn’t his go. He’s a little bulldog that loves a scrap, as we saw on a couple of occasions in the Spring. Expecting him to be near the pace and then pouring the pressure on from around the 500m mark onwards. That’ll be his best chance.
I know both Team Hawkes and Tommy Berry have a huge opinion of 9 Trope (Bet Now: $12.00) so it’ll be interesting to see how she goes at this level. Outstanding first up win on the Kensington track I thought, overcoming the track pattern and winding up with real purpose to win. Been kept on ice and her trial behind Omar last week looked outstanding. I think she can measure up.
Race 3. (13:45) Reisling Stakes 1200m
The only bet I’ve had for the Slipper at this stage is 1 Exhilarates (Bet Now: $3.00) so I’m keen to see what she does en route to the big dance. There are many potting the Magic Millions form, and they probably have a point, but sometimes you just have to believe what you see and what this girl did in Queensland was stunning. Yes, the time was slow relative to the day, but she’s ticked the brutal 1200m box and has been kept on ice for the Slipper. Trial was good, this will clean out the cobwebs, and she is a filly who has got better each time she’s stepped out.
There is just something about 4 Tenley (Bet Now: $3.70) you have to like. She seems to relax well in her races and when she is let down, she has a brilliant finale and puts them away quickly. 2/2 so far in her career and while she hasn’t beaten much, her late splits and the manner in which she’s won suggests she’s certainly a Slipper candidate and I think she can win here.
3 Vincere Volare (Bet Now: $5.50) looks hard to beat. Tony Gollan trains this filly for Aquis, who resumed at Doomben a few weeks back over 1110m where she was prohibitive odds but for the thrill seekers, there really wasn’t a moment of concern as she led all the way, bolted in and ran okay time, just like she did on debut. Toughest test to date, but has the right racing pattern and will be in it for a long way.
Race 4. (14:25) Todman Stakes 1200m
Can 2 Time To Reign (Bet Now: $2.70) repeat the dose? He was outstanding in the Silver Slipper. Sat three wide no cover for the trip, chasing the speed, but he cruised to the front at the top of the straight and went past them very quickly, comfortably holding the boom colt Tassort to the line, albeit had the run under the belt leading in. Can he do it on a dry track? If he does, he could be the horse to beat in the Slipper.
4 Yes Yes Yes (Bet Now: $4.20) is a huge watch. Really talented colt now with Chris Waller after formerly being with Darren Weir. Was on the Magic Millions path but drew wide and was scratched, then was heading to the Blue Diamond before the Weir mess unfolded. Now with Waller, eyes on the Slipper and his Canterbury trial behind Dubious was outstanding, and very rare they run sub 54 for 900m in a trial there, so the grounding is there based on the trial to run well.
There is a bit to like about this Godolphin colt 5 Bivouac (Bet Now: $10.00). Thought he ran really well first up here behind Dawn Passage before going to the Lonhro Plate at Warwick Farm where he was given a lovely steer from Blake Shinn and he pounced on the hot pot Time To Reign, put it away and won comfortably. We saw what Time To Reign did in the Silver Slipper, so don’t rule him out.
Race 5. (15:00) Challenge Stakes 1000m
Good luck beating 1 Redzel (Bet Now: $1.55). The champ is back after an indifferent Spring prep. He mixed his form somewhat but showed his champion qualities with an all the way to defend his Everest title. Been given a good break, he won this race last year and the last trial at Canterbury was there for all to see, leading throughout and running brilliant time late. He looks the winner.
The champ will get a good guide as to where he’s at because 7 Estijaab (Bet Now: $1.55) is here and she means business. Thought she was outstanding off the long layoff in the Inglis Sprint where she showed great ticker late when headed by Fiesta, fighting back gamely to run a narrow second. Has been freshened up and won a trial last week. I’m not gushing like some are because really, the leader was under triple wraps while this girl was given a squeeze. She’ll give Redzel a serious race…can she sustain it at the top level.
3 Jungle Edge (Bet Now: $16.00) gave Redzel a fright or two last year in this race and I think he’s going well for Mick Bell. This war horse hasn’t raced since Feb 9 in the Rubiton where he sat outside the speed demon Nature Strip and he just broke the heart of Jungle Edge but kept on and was very brave. He’s a superior wet tracker no doubt, but can run well on firm ground. He goes in multiples.
Race 6. (15:35) Canterbury Stakes 1300m
I’m in the corner of 1 Trapeze Artist (Bet Now: $2.80) in a cracking race. Just have to put a line through the Expressway resumption behind Alizee. He’s not a wet tracker and not a first up horse and why he was well backed to win was rather odd. Been kept on ice for this and the TJ and the two trials leading in have been super, with real intent being shown to the eye and on the clock. Second up record says no, but with those two hard trials under the belt, I’m treating him as third up here, and we know third up he’s an absolute bomb.
2 Pierata (Bet Now: $4.00) is a star for Greg Hickman who returns to racing after a very strong Spring prep, where he ended it with a brilliant win in the Sydney Stakes on Everest Day. Yes, the time was quicker than the feature, but they ran very slow time early on in the Everest and there was a significant downpour between races, so that’ll be deceiving for some. What’s not deceiving is how good this horse is. The trial…I thought it was okay without jumping up and down. He can win this for sure. Just want to see him though.
5 Shoals (Bet Now: $6.00) is a big watch here and can easily win. Just depends where her fitness levels are at because this will be a solid 1300m, but go back to first up last prep in the Premiere at Randwick. Beaten narrowly by Santa Ana Lane but despite running second, her time as well broke the track record, and she came from the back so her run was enormous. Nice recent jumpout to the eye and Tim Clark does get on well with her.
Race 7. (16:20) Randwick Guineas 1600m
It’s hard to get away from 1 The Autumn Sun. (Bet Now: $1.55). I think he’s the best three year old Australia has to offer and I reckon he’ll make a huge statement en route to likely the Rosehill Guineas. Not many horses could have done what he did first up in the Hobartville, producing some of the best late splits of the afternoon off a moderate gallop to beat a handy one in Vegadaze. The Randwick mile on firmer footing, with added fitness…it will take a special performance and/or bad luck to beat him.
7 Nakeeta Jane (Bet Now: $4.60) has to be respected and is the key, probably only, serious threat to the colt. She’s 2/2 this time in, winning the Light Fingers so impressively first up before a stunning win in the Surround last Saturday where she produced an unbelievable finish to win. These younger horses, it’s pretty much the fillies dominating, especially in the three year old ranks, barring The Autumn Sun, and Nakeeta Jane is one of the better fillies going around. I’m sure she’ll run a beauty.
6 Purple Sector (Bet Now: $26.00) is a son of Pins for the John Thompson stable who was excellent first up in the Eskimo Prince before going to the Hobartville where he was a tad plain behind The Autumn Sun, perhaps second up syndrome. Think back on top of the ground will suit this colt…highly doubt he wins, but with luck in running, he can certainly fill a first four spot.
Race 8. (17:00) Aspiration Quality 1600m
The one that could be at silly odds here is 11 Royal Stamp (Bet Now: $51.00). Marc Conners trains this mare, who looked to trial up enormous and on face value, her two runs back have been fair, but bear in mind both runs have been on wet tracks, something she hates. Thought she was the winner when presented last time but the wet track just took away her dash. Hard Randwick mile no issue for her given she’s a winner at 2000m and back on top of the ground, I think she’s worth something each way.
6 Harmattan (Bet Now: 7.50) is a James Cummings trained mare who had a little freshen up after winning impressively at Rosehill. Saved and ran over this track/distance three weeks ago where she ran well but had her chance behind Penske. That was her first run in a month, so there should be room to imrprove and back to mares grade, she’ll take some beating.
She’s a huge watch is 1 Luvaluva (Bet Now: $8.00). Was really looking forward to her 4YO Spring prep but she just didn’t come up it seems. Her best effort was a narrow third in a rather weak Matriarch. Trialled up okay prior to resuming in the Millie Fox where she was getting warm very late in an eye catching performance behind White Moss. She is a second up winner and much better suited on firmer footing. She can win if she’s near right.
Race 9. (17:40) Randwick City Stakes 2000m
Gee I think the bookies have missed 10 Shraaoh (Bet Now: $13.00). I think he’s a definite Sydney Cup horse and on the form guide, the fresh effort was just a run, but breaking down his sectionals, for a 3200m horse, the run was an excellent first up effort. Some of the best late splits of the race despite not being 100% happy in the going. Firmer footing, up to 2000m and McEvoy back on, gee he ticks alot of boxes against a lot of runners with convictions.
5 Casterton (Bet Now: $5.00) for me, clearly. I think Chris Waller has this import going very well this time in. He resumed in the Parramatta Cup where he was probably just too fresh, wanting to race a touch keen and found himself near the inside, which wasn’t the A1 ground IMO. Did a good job to run fourth to Red Cardinal. Natural improvement off that, he looks one of the hardest to beat.
Long Shot: 2000m, big track, fit…it all points to 9 Emperor’s Way (Bet Now: $8.50) going close but he’s running out of chances I would have thought. He too comes through the Parramatta Cup and I thought he had every chance in the run, with the race won by Red Cardinal. Perhaps the brutal tempo and wet track can excuse him for the run…but this is just about D-Day for him IMO.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race One Number 1 Spright
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 6 Baller
LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 10 Shraaoh
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5
Leg Two: 1
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 6, 11
Leg Four: 2, 5, 9, 10
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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