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Eight races will be run and won at Newcastle this Friday where it is Newcastle Newmarket Day. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Race 1. (13:50) Prestige Wedding & Event Hire Maiden Plate 1200m

Back Me

7 Livia’s Story (Bet Now: $4.40) on top, but just. Edward O’Rourke trains this daughter of Sepoy, who debuted over 1000m at Gosford where she got off the speed in the run and didn’t appear happy around the tight track but she picked up quite nicely late I thought when third to Crimson Ticket. 1200m and the bigger track are the two big ticks.

Danger

8 Rock’N’Roll Music (Bet Now: $4.80) is a Street Cry filly on debut for the Cummings camp. Coolmore owns this girl, who has had a really solid grounding for her debut, with three trials this preparation, the latest seeing her win over the 1050m at Randwick with McEvoy steering, and he remains on, which is a good sign.

Long Shot

5 Missile Miss (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Smart Missile mare for the Wanda Ings team who is racing so well at the moment. Just can’t quite crack it for a win. She ran over this track/distance last time out and i really liked the way she finished off her race when second to the talented Key To Glory. Has the hard racing under the belt and stable is going really well at the moment.

Race 2. (14:25) Peoplefusion Handicap 1400m

Back Me

8 Sporty (Bet Now: $4.60) is a Team Hawkes trained filly who had trialled up okay prior to debuting over 1200m here in what looked a solid enough maiden. She sat off the pace under Mitchell Bell in a leader dominated affair and while she never looked likely, she closed off okay late late in the piece behind Key To Glory. Up to 1400m ideal and this isn’t a strong maiden.

Danger

9 Britannicus (Bet Now: $4.60) is a son of Roman Emperor first up for the John Thompson team. This bloke had a three run Spring prep to kick off his career, where he looked a bit immature and that he would improve with the prep under the belt. That does seem to be the case off the trials, and I think he could be the overs.

Long Shot

2 The Mist (Bet Now: $13.00) is a John Sargent trained gelding making his Australian debut. Hasn’t raced since making his debut back in 2016 at Cromwell in New Zealand when finishing fourth to Zayzay, beaten four lengths. Two trials leading in have been okay, draws well and first up at 1400m suggests to me he’s forward enough.

Race 3. (15:05) TJ Services Maiden Plate 1600m

Back Me

1 Kathmandu (Bet Now: $1.90) on top, but I wouldn’t want to take anything silly short. Thought he was a good thing last time out over the Hawksebury mile but gee he was disappointing, very one paced in the straight and just whacked away to run second to Attracted. Form out of that reads okay and I think perhaps back on the bigger track will help his cause.

Danger

3 Delos (Bet Now: $3.40) looks a threat. Waterhouse/Bott train this galloper, who is first up at the mile, but that is something of a norm for the stable. He has had two trials to prepare, one over 1000m and one over 1200m, placing both times. Hippo should have him on speed and he’ll keep grinding away at the same speed.

Long Shot

4 So Strong (Bet Now: $19.00) is a Savabeel gelding for the John O’Shea team who resumed with plenty of issues when running fourth of four at Kembla. Trialled well and then went to Goulburn where he looked in need of the run behind Legendofoz. Draws well and Avdulla steers, so I think we will get a true gauge on how well he is going now.

Race 4. (15:40) Advanced Pest Control Plate (Class One/Maiden) 2300m

Back Me

4 Rex Bell (Bet Now: $2.05) is a Chris Waller trained stayer who is third up, so peak fitness should just about be reached now. Loomed large to win over 2000m at Kembla last time out but just found Chilli Beauty too tough and too good. Got really good form at this distance range when racing in the UK, and Bowman on. Keen.

Danger

6 Momentum To Win (Bet Now: $6.00) had been bursting to win his maiden for some time but it took until his first look beyond 2000m and a lovely ride from Hippo to get the win, and when he got the split, he dashed and won impressively. He’ll eat up the 2300m, has upside and should take some beating against this lot.

Long Shot

2 Mozart’s Work (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Paul Cave trained galloper who is having his first look at this distance but I think he’ll be okay with it. Was well backed last time out over 1800m at Bathurst but a deluge of rain hit the track prior to the race and he appeared to struggle in the conditions behind Triple Choice. Query at the distance, but in the right stable to run it.

Race 5. (16:20) Kam-Cool Refrigeration Beaumont Handicap 1400m

Back Me

Going to give 11 Onthetake (Bet Now: $7.00) another look. Was really keen on her last time out at Wyong and the punters backed her with confidence. In the end, she sat on speed, looked to travel well, but was the first horse beat on the turn and ran a disappointing fifth to Laburnum. I think with a more patient steer, she can bounce back hard.

Danger

2 Laburnum (Bet Now: $3.70) had trialled up okay prior to debuting at Wyong over 1350m. Not easy for a two year old to debut at that trip but she did it and did it quite impressively, so she gets a big tick for me there. Can only see upside with her, bigger track tick and up to 1400m looks a bigger track. Definite threat.

Long Shot

6 Affogato (Bet Now: $126.00) is a nice looking son of More Than Ready for the Wendy Roche team who debuted in a 2YO maiden at Rosehill last Wednesday and I thought he stuck on pretty well in defeat behind Ringerdingding in a race which did look to have good depth to it. Always wary of this stable because they very often produce a nice type.

Race 6. (16:55) Suez Newcastle Newmarket Handicap 1400m

Back Me

I reckon 10 Special Missile (Bet Now: $3.80) is a great bet here in the feature. John Thompson trains this Smart Missile gelding, who was one of the real finds of the Sydney Spring, going through his grades nicely before a gallant fourth in the Cameron. Resumes and I thought he looked outstanding in his recent trial win. Ready to go.

Danger

6 Lanciato (Bet Now: $3.40) is facing his biggest test to date, but when we said that last start, he passed with flying colours. That came in the Carrington Stakes where he took on several Group l performers and he came with a brilliant finishing burst to get the job done. Little break between runs the query, but he has the form on the board and the lethal turn of foot.

Long Shot

If you’re a punter who focuses heavily on sectionals, then 9 Royal Tudor (Bet Now: $12.00) is your horse. His two runs back this time in have been outstanding with no luck each start. Could have, maybe should have, beaten Memes first up at Randwick but had no luck before going to Rosehill and flashing home behind Perizada. Up to 1400m on the big track looks perfect.

Race 7. (17:35) Guardian safety Solutions Provincial Posthaste Handicap (80) 900m

Back Me

Siding with 2 Latin Boy (Bet Now: $2.35). Richard Freedman trains this five year old gelding, who strung together four wins on the bounce before a game fourth at Randwick and then was tipped out. Has had a couple of trials to prepare for his return and I like him fresh at 900m, because he will be sitting off them and will be strong late.

Danger

4 Cockles (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Nadeem gelding for the Allan Denham stable who is near a month between runs since racing over 1100m at Hawlesbury when attempting to lead all the way and giving a really good kick but felt the pinch late when third to Old Man Sam. I think fresh and back to 900m looks an ideal recipe to run well.

Long Shot

3 Fabry (Bet Now: $21.00) is a talented sprinter that resumes for the Neil Godbolt team and I reckon the fact he resumes here tells me there is intent to run well. Hasn’t raced since the Dan Baker Prelude during the Coffs Carnival when down the track. Resumes with no trials, but rare to see Godbolt travel. When he does, they run well.

Race 8. (18:10) HL Mullane Handicap (70) 1200m

Back Me

3 Valbeata (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Bob Milligan trained mare who could be heading towards the Country Championship Wildcard at Muswellbrook depending on how she runs here. She ran in the Port Macquarie Qualifier and just did a bit too much work near the speed behind Victorem. Much better when ridden with cover and having last say.

Danger

5 Tawfiq Boy (Bet Now: $4.00) has let the punters down badly a few times recently but he does find a very winnable race on his home track. Kris Lees trains this son of I Am Invincible, who ran over the 1250m at Taree last time out and on face value, he ran well when second to the heavily backed Typhoon Bonny, but he was near odds on and got the rolled. Costly to follow, but he can definitely win.

Long Shot

3 Valbeata (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Bob Milligan trained mare who could be heading towards the Country Championship Wildcard at Muswellbrook depending on how she runs here. She ran in the Port Macquarie Qualifier and just did a bit too much work near the speed behind Victorem. Much better when ridden with cover and having last say.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Six Number 10 Special Missile

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 4 Rex Bell

VALUE: Race Eight Number 3 Valbeata

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 7, 11

Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 9, 10

Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 10

Leg Four: 3, 5, 9, 12

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