9/2/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warwick Farm, Inglis Millennium day

Warwick Farm is where Sydney race takes place this Saturday where we see the running of the inaugural edition of the $2 Million Inglis Millennium (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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$1.10 would be acceptable when it comes to 1 Time To Reign. (Bet Now: $1.60). Just can’t see him getting beat. Very good looking youngster for Gery Portelli who kicks off his prep towards the Slipper. Already assured a start in the race thanks to 2/2 wins in the Spring. The trial here a couple of weeks back was as good as you’ll see when it comes to a two year old and he bolted in under little riding. On his home track, got the runs on the board…just wins.

2 Bivouac (Bet Now: $5.00) is a James Cummings trained colt who trialled up okay prior to resuming over 1000m at Randwick where he sat back off a brutal early tempo and closed off nicely late when third to Dawn Passage, with his condition just giving way 75m from home. How will he respond from that is an unknown because that was a hard resumption, but did run well on debut behind Time To Reign.

The overs god was a jerk when it came to 5 Sylvia’s Memory (Bet Now: $31.00) at Randwick two weeks. Got good slices of $51 and $26 before she ended up starting $8, but the wide barrier and a couple of surprises kicking up inside her sealed her fate. She was four/five throughout on speed and rightfully wasn’t in the finish but she stuck on okay considering the early burn. Happy to watch her, but I’d include her in wider multiples.

This could well be the best Highway we’ve seen to date. 2 Noble Boy (Bet Now: $1.70) will do me though. He’s my early pick for the Country Championships because he’s just got so much upside left. He last raced in a Highway on December 1 where he bolted in, beating Coup De Main. His last 600m was five lengths quicker than anything else in the race, so he was dominant. Been given a break and speaking to Todd on Monday, he’s very happy with the horse and told me the horse is 90-95% fitness wise. Good enough for me.

5 Tully Toff (Bet Now: $21.00) could be a sharp improver here. He is on the Country Championships path, and comes here second up off a freshen up. The first run came on his home track at Wagga where he was back in the run and when they’re running 33 for the final 600m, he would have had to run 32.5/thereabouts…no chance. Can take advantage of gate one and has run well at this level before.

The third up bounce back could easily be on the cards when it comes to the Danny Williams trained 3 Acquittal (Bet Now: $11.00). Really good first up effort behind Star Fall before contesting the I Am A Cool Kid Highway and he was just no hope, like the rest behind the above average sprinter. Lone career win did come third up, so have to give him another chance.

4 She Knows (Bet Now: $5.00) will do me first up. Danny Williams trains this quality mare, who hasn’t raced since Cup Week at Flemington down the straight where she was far from disgraced I thought without much luck behind Thermal Current. She has a really good first up record, gate one to park off the hot speed and Bowman does ride the mare very well.

3 Super Too (Bet Now: $4.50) will look the winner for 900m…last 100m will be her acid. She’s a very, very speedy mare for Marc Conners who has been a bit off the boil in her last couple of preps, her last run being in the Caulfield Sprint when on speed and tailing off behind Eduiardo. Trialled like a bomb here, Blake Shinn rides her very well…she’ll look the winner for a long way.

I’m cautious about 7 Akasaki (Bet Now: $17.00), a Stephen Jones trained sprinter who is first up. Resumes without a trial but he ran some ripping races in town last prep and his record at the Warwick Farm 1000m is outstanding, with a win and second from two starts. There has been good support for him at a longer price and a wet track should be no issue. Interesting to see how he goes.

I took a slice of $7.50 all in for 6 Gem Song (Bet Now: $3.80) thinking that would be overs. Kris Lees trains this quality colt, who is first up after a pretty good Spring prep, which ended with a a narrow second in the Dulcify behind Mickey Blue Eyes. He trialled at Newcastle a couple of weeks back and he looked outstanding in leading all the way under a really good hold from McEvoy. Better over slightly further, but the trial, visually, was too good to ignore.

If it comes to last man standing, 1 Sandbar (Bet Now: $2.45) will be one of those in the mix because he just loves a scrap. Resumes for Brad Widdup with a couple of really sharp trials under the belt. The Spring prep was overall very good, highlighted by a fourth to The Autumn Sun in the Golden Rose, which outside Winx, is the best form in Australia. Has run well on wet tracks before and draws the right part of the track.

5 Master Ash (Bet Now: $5.00) is a fascinating runner. The WaterBott stable trains this colt, who is first up here, and it would take a remarkable training effort to get him to win first up here. He hasn’t raced since the Stan Fox where he really struggled on the wet track behind Tarka, with third being The Autumn Sun, so he’s got the form there and the trials have been more than encouraging.

8 Fiesta (Bet Now: $3.20) looks to be absolutely low flying at the moment for Chris Waller. She’s only won the two from 11 starts, but she’s been a beauty and rarely runs a bad race, as we saw in the Spring where she placed in three legs of the Sydney Princess Series, one of those beaten a lip by Oohood in the Flight. Loved what I’ve seen from her at the trials and she does seem to race best fresh.

5 Coterie (Bet Now: $11.00) is a son of Your Song for Gerald Ryan that is first up. His Spring campaign was in weaker company but he did a good job, winning two on the bounce, placing behind a good one in Royal Celebration before striking a bog and being tipped out. Trialled really well behind Brutal to my eye and the stable do generally have them forward in condition first up.

12 Evalina (Bet Now: $26.00) is a talented filly resuming for Kris Lees. This girl came of age towards the end of her prep in the Spring. Should have won the Reginald Allen before bumping into Royal Celebration at Randwick. That should have done her confidence the world of good and that seems to be the case given she trialled brilliantly at Newcastle, beating the high class stablemate Miss Fabulass. Expecting a good run from this daughter of I Am Invincible.

She usually gets better as the prep gets deeper but I think there is good value about the Tony McEvoy trained 2 Cool Passion (Bet Now: $4.60), who is first up here. This seven year old hasn’t raced since the Spring where she put together a couple of strong wins at Stakes level, with both races turning out to be really good form references. Looked to trial very nicely behind Spright at Rosehill and she was good late when first up last prep.

There will be those potting 4 Champagne Cuddles (Bet Now: $2.30) after her first up run down the Flemington straight when beaten by outsider Belwazi, but bear in mind she was carrying serious condition leading in and that run was somewhat of a trial given there are Newmarket aspirations. But that aside, she’s fitter, on her home track, against the mares, at 1200m…there’s plenty to like…I just can’t take the short odds.

8 Slow Burn (Bet Now: $16.00) looks a sharp improver. Very unlucky resumption over 1200m at Rosehill behind Demerara before going back to 1100m and running okay behind Bon Amis. Been given a break since that run, and has had two 1000m+ trials, the latest coming a couple of weeks back over 1045m when a strong fourth. She could well be the one at silly odds here.

Big fan of 1 Accession (Bet Now: $2.80) and he just seems to be getting better and better with each run under the belt. Impressive winner of the Inglis Nursery at Randwick before being freshened up and racing at Rosehill three weeks ago where he was absolutely arrogant in putting them away, conceding weight and still spanking them. Hard run 1200m looks an ideal recipe.

2 Dawn Passage (Bet Now: $3.10) is a son of Dawn Approach for WaterBott who had trialled up really well prior to debuting over 1000m at Randwick two weeks and he was outstanding, both visually and on the clock in the first ride back for Blake Shinn. Extra 200m should only be beneficial for him. The only little niggle I have is was he flattered at Randwick given he sat off a brutal early tempo and got the splits? This will tell us if he’s the real deal or not re Golden Slipper.

12 Pretty Brazen (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Tony McEvoy trained filly who has been quite good in two career outings. Beaten narrowly on debut down the Flemington straight by Microphone before going to the Blue Diamond Preview where she was far from disgraced behind Catch Me. That form should read alright for this and the $15+ for her earlier in the week seemed a touch of overs.

8 Gresham (Bet Now: $4.00) will do me here. He seemed to get his Birthday/Christmas/Easter all at once when winning two back on the Kensington track before racing at Randwick on the course proper and really, the ride from Blake Shinn really deserved the win but he just found New Universe too good on the day. Back down in the weights on a track he has run well at, he’ll do me.

5 Tangled (Bet Now: $2.70) is a quality animal for Chris Waller who resumed at Randwick a fortnight ago and I thought his effort, first up off a long break, was a definite pass mark when a closing third to Tom Melbourne in the Carrington. Has run well on wet tracks before, with the flop being at Eagle Farm but hardly any horse handled that track. Up to the mile, Bowman on, can see why he’s likeable.

10 Samadoubt (Bet Now: $7.00) is a tough, tough campaigner for Bjorn Baker who has been in work forever it seems but he’s racing so well and not really running a bad race. He ran in the New Universe race from two weeks ago where he was on speed, copped pressure and stuck on well, but the finale of New Universe was too much and he battled away for fourth. On his home track, he’ll be on speed again and giving his all.

7 Zidane (Bet Now: $7.00) on top. Lauri Wray has this bloke absolutely flying I think. He ran over 1500m at Rosehill three weeks ago where he got back in the run before peeling to the outside and letting down hard to just miss out on the win when a narrow third to Harmattan. On his home track, good barrier, got the right form around him…he appeals as a really good bet, hopefully at odds.

One last chance to 6 Sparky Lad (Bet Now: $10.00). Ran over 1400m at Randwick a fortnight ago where he was off the pace all the way and did chase okay, but was never really in the hunt and finish behind surprise and lucky winner in Brazen. He is a winner at Warwick Farm, Blake Shinn on, good draw…there are boxes ticked to suggest he can run well…but it’s last chance territory.

8 Animala (Bet Now: $20.00) is a former Godolphin galloper who has done a really good job since going to Matty Dale. On first look, you would think the third placing at Moruya in the Narooma Cup was poor, but bear in mind he did work early in the run and was pulling hard. Hopefully he can relax a bit better in the run this time around and is a definite chance provided he gets cover from the gate.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 2 Noble Boy

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Time To Reign

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 7 Zidane

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 7, 8, 9

Leg Two: 1, 2, 12

Leg Three: 5, 8, 9, 10

Leg Four: 6, 7, 8, 10

$50 Investment = 20.83% of the dividend if successful

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