Eight races will be run and won at Belmont this Saturday where it is Aquanita Stakes Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (14:38) 207 Freshman Sires Plate 1400m
9 Ocean Jewel (Bet Now: $3.00) clearly on top for me here. This filly debuted for the Miller cam over 1200m here last Wednesday where she started prohibitive odds and lived right up to the trials with a superb fresh win. Up to 1400m looks no issue and she is bred to handle possible give in the track. Keen.
2 The Shoe (Bet Now: $4.60) is a handy gelding for the Stephen Miller camp who ran well in the WA Magic Millions during the Summer before being spelled. Resumed over 1300m here four weeks back off one easy trial on soft ground and did look in need of the run behind the talented Art Series. Draws a lovely gate and gets a senior rider steering now.
6 Al Capitano (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Neville Parnham trained gelding who debuted over 1200m here last Wednesday where he had the box seat run and loomed to win when getting the split but was picked off late to run third. Won’t get the same run here, and tougher, but always respect the stable and their babies.
Race 2. (15:18) Awesome Rock Handicap (1MW) 1400m
10 Pinball Wizard (Bet Now: $3.50) is a pretty promising galloper for the Williams camp. Ran over 1200m here a couple of Wednesdays back where he had the charmed run behind the tempo and when asked by Maddison Brown, he dashed and went right away. Up to 1400m is no issue, Pike jumps on and he did bolt up in a trial on soft ground prior to resuming.
3 Checkers (Bet Now: $6.00) is a very consistent and reliable galloper for the Parnham camp. He ran over 1300m here last Wednesday where he looked to have every chance behind the speed and looked the winner for a few strides but was outgunned late by Detango. Maps superbly, handles wet ground and is hard fit/in form.
4 Harry Thomas (Bet Now: $14.00) has been in pretty good form this campaign for the Ross Price yard. This gelding last raced on June 15 at Pinjarra over 1400m where he was on speed most of the way and fought on strongly though no match for the winner and city performer Cruachan. Looks to map okay here, hard fit and rates highly.
Race 3. (15:58) Kings Troop @ Taunton Vale Handicap (1MW) 1000m
3 Two Silver Trees (Bet Now: $4.80) on top for me but only just. This mare was a bit hit and miss prior to the start of this campaign but she has turned things around this prep, winning two of two. The latest of those came five weeks back at this track/distance when ridden a treat by Kersley. Draws a touch awkwardly and creeping up in the weights, but I’m trusting the eye.
2 Pop Hero (Bet Now: $5.50) looks the toughest to beat. He ran over this track/distance a fortnight back where he had three wide cover and loomed large to win the race but he just ran out of condition late in the piece when a close up fifth to Vandemonian. Should only come on from that and rates highly.
11 You Watching Me (Bet Now: $51.00) might be one to include in wider exotics. He ran over this track/distance last Wednesday where he got a mile back off them in a leader dominated affair and couldn’t really come on behind Zeinite. He has run well in Saturday grade before and draws a soft gate. Not sure he can win, but one for multiples.
Race 4. (16:33) Lucky Street @ Darling View Thoroughbreds Handicap (72+) 1200m
Siding with 4 Ripper Rio (Bet Now: $6.00). Talented gelding for the Williams camp who is 56 days between runs since racing over 1800m at Ascot where Brad Parnham rode him a treat and the horse clung on to get the win. Goes really well fresh and the 3kg claim for Casey Hunter is a big tick for mine.
2 Majinika (Bet Now: $3.00) is a really tough but above average gelding for the Durrant/Miller stable who is 28 days between runs since racing over this track/distance where he was ridden a treat by Johnston-Porter and dug deep over the final 150m to get the win. He has a great winning strike rate and always busts his gut.
10 The Celt (Bet Now: $6.00) was on the seven day turnaround when racing at this track/distance a fortnight back and he was a beaten horse on the turn, with the trainer stating that he didn’t handle the back up. Looks much better placed here and on his best form, he is right in this for sure.
Race 5. (17:10) Rommel @ Mogumber Park Handicap (66+) 2100m
1 Rosewood Hill (Bet Now: $3.80) is the one to beat here. Ben Pearce trained mare who has been outstanding in recent benchmark staying events. Ran over 2100m here three weeks back and got near last in the run before coming wide and building up the revs and going right on with it for a soft triumph. Claim helps and handles all conditions.
8 Cappo D’Oro (Bet Now: $6.00) is a very consistent type for the Kersley yard but he is just really struggling to crack it for a win. He has finished runner up to Rosewood Hill in two of his last three outings. The last start saw him ran a gutsy second to Not Again Ken. A win is near, and he should go close.
13 Scooner (Bet Now: $15.00) could be the knockout here. He ran in that Not Again Ken race mentioned above and I thought his effort was tidy considering he was 1600m-2000m. He did win up at 2400m when trained by Waller, so the trip will be no issue here, and is a definite threat here.
Race 6. (17:45) Aquanita Stakes 2000m
2 Gatting (Bet Now: $2.35) clearly on top for me. The WA Derby winner was a bit ordinary fresh but he bounced back to his best in the Guineas when launching late but being outmuscled late by Variation. Up to 2000m suits him better, he has the upside and don’t be surprised to see him blow them away.
1 Variation (Bet Now: $2.35) had things fall into place for him in the Guineas. He had the charmed run behind the speed and almost got caught napping by Gatting but the fitness and turn of foot kicked in late. He does look a risk at 2000m, but he does have the turn of foot/brilliance factors on his side.
4 Dusty Storm (Bet Now: $34.00) is the hard fit/in form three year old for the Paul Jordan camp. He ran over 2100m here last Wednesday where he had the 1/1 sit and tried hard but no match late for Jackpot Prince. He does have soft track form next to his name, and he showed last time he can run a trip out.
Race 7. (18:20) New Kids On The Block- Belmont Oaks 2000m
6 Imaginary (Bet Now: $19.00) for me. Team Williams trained filly who resumed a tick over two weeks back in a 1300m maiden at Northam where she sat off them but came with a brilliant finishing burst late to get the win. 1300m-2000m is never easy, but gee she looked very good in a trial on Monday.
8 Perfect Dream (Bet Now: $5.00) took a while to break the maiden, but she did do it two back before racing over 2100m here last Wednesday where she looked to have her chance but was still solid in defeat behind Jackpot Prince, who goes around as a leading contender in the Aquanita. That form reads well and Pike rides.
1 Elegant Blast (Bet Now: $6.50) could be the knockout chance here. This Warwick trained filly comes back to her own age/sex after taking on the boys in the Guineas where she was wide no cover throughout and toughed it out strongly in defeat behind Variation. On that effort, 2000m here is no issue and with a better run in transit, she’ll go close.
Race 8. (18:55) It Just Has To Be Vert De Greece Handicap (72+) 1600m
12 Saker (Bet Now: $19.00) represents value for me in the last. Fred Kersley trained galloper who is on the seven day back up after racing over 1400m here last Saturday where he was 42 days in between runs and just felt the pinch late. Got good stats on wet ground, fitter and up to the mile helps his cause.
11 Gangbuster (Bet Now: $6.00) is the big query here. He’s a really good three year old when he is right and he will welcome the drop in grade/depth after contesting the Belmont Guineas where he got back in the run and just stayed there really without ever looking likely behind Variation. Pike on is a good lead and he does have class.
10 By Decree (Bet Now: $10.00) is a handy mare for an in form stable who is four weeks between runs since racing over 1400m here where she was given a lovely sit just off the speed and tried hard but had to settle for a close up third to Blackline. Got really good form at the mile, handles wet ground and maps well.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Rosewood Hill
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 10 Pinball Wizard
VALUE: Race Eight Number 12 Saker
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6
Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 8
Leg Four: 1, 7, 10, 11, 12
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful
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