Queensland’s Winter Racing Carnival’s grand final will be run on Saturday at Eagle Farm were we see the running of the Stradbroke Handicap which is a fantastic field this year with Doomben 10,000 winner Your Song holding favouritism narrowly.
Apart from the Stradbroke Handicap there are two other Group 1 races on the day which are the JJ Atkins Stakes for two year olds and the Queensland Derby for three year olds.
The current track condition is a Dead 5 with some showers predicted in the next day although nothing too heavy and we should be racing on a Dead track come race time.
Luxbet Free BetSportsbet Free BetBookmaker Free Bet
Race One: Ambassador Travel Hampden Stks 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Missy Longstocking was disappointing last start although i am happy to put a line through that race and give her another chance in this race. She is against an easier field and looks hard to beat at what i think are decent odds.
Don’t Back Me: Cosmic Endeavour won well on debut although the horses behind her in that race have come out without doing much which makes her look under the odds in this race with Sportsbet having her at $1.95 in betting.
Big Danger: Vienna Queen is the likely leader in the race and if she can get a soft run in front she should be able to provide a good kick in the straight.
Roughie: Chilwero was green on debut and took a lot of riding to pick-up the bit. Should improve from that run and looks a good long shot chance.
$500 Missy Longstocking Free Bet
Race Two: Xxxx Gold Strawberry Road Hcp 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Someday i thought ran a very good race last start when making up a stack of ground. Looks to be more speed in this race which will definitely suit and has the class to beat this field, gets into the weights well and should be winning.
Don’t Back Me: Diademe ran alright at his first Australian start although it didn’t impress me enough to say he would be winning next start and i was surprised at the odds he opened at.
Big Danger: Transporter was very galant last start when running second in the Lord Mayor’s Cup last start which was a WFA race meaning he is better suited here and will take a lot of beating.
Roughie: Venture On i thought was excellent and i had to double check Sportsbet had the correct odds of $21 for her in this race. Hit the line well in a strong race last time and has to be included in your multiples.
$500 Someday Free Bet
Race Three: Mcgrath Daybreak Lover 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Lilliburlero had a tough run on the speed last start when never given a rest and wasn’t beaten far by the back markers. This race doesn’t seem like it has a lot of speed in it, so she should get some decent sectionals and be tough to run down.
Don’t Back Me: Limes has had two starts over the mile without placing. I think he is better over a shorter distance were he can use his turn of foot more effectively.
Big Danger: Academus had nothing go right for him last start and still managed to run fourth. Has drawn barrier 1 so will get a good run in transit and with a bit of luck he will be in the finish.
Roughie: Saint Or Sinner went close in what i feel will be a good form race at Flemington last start. Has been given time since that start and the drop in distance will most likely suit him better. Looks a good long shot at $34.
$500 Lilliburlero Free Bet
Race Four: Evergreen Turf Lightning Hcp 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: I’m Cool was very gallant when winning last start. He was left in front along way out and wasn’t entitled to win that race but was too good. Should be able to sit with cover mid field and with the drop in weights will be hard to beat at $13.
Don’t Back Me: Howmuchdoyouloveme is yet to fire in his past few runs and i dont think that will change on Saturday were he has 59.5kg and barrier 16 to overcome.
Big Danger: Pentasia has a very goos strike rate and gets in well in the weights despite a good win last start. Will get a good run from barrier 7 and back to back wins wouldn’t surprise.
Roughie: Rocker hit the line strongly last start won by the favourite in this race. I think he will be better over the 1000m and will be finishing hard late at good odds.
$500 I’m Cool Free Bet
Race Five: Patinack Farm Dane Ripper Stks 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Fire Up Fifi will be having her toughest test in this race although i feel she is up to it especially with the conditions. With her main dangers drawing wide she will get a much better run in transit and having a 4kg weight relief on them should help.
Don’t Back Me: Red Tracer likes to race handy although she wont be given that opportunity on Saturday after drawing barrier 18. She will also carry 59.5kg and despite having the class to win doesn’t have the conditions to suit so the $5.50 looks unders.
Big Danger: Arctic Flight will likely lead the field and depending on what some of the wider drawn runners do she may get an easy lead which could see her steal the race at $26.
Roughie: Risk Aversion did it tough last start and im willing to forgive that run. The start before that i thought she ran very well in the Coolmore Classic despite running ninth. Currently $21 in betting which looks value.
$500 Fire Up Fifi Free Bet
Race Six: Patinack Farm J.j. Atkins 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Vilanova looked as if he was looking for further last start when Zoustar had a better turn of foot but was very gallant. Wont have to make his run as early on Saturday and will out grind them over the mile.
Don’t Back Me: Romantic Touch won by seven last start but how often do you see a Gai Waterhouse runner win by a big margin then come out and fail as short priced favourite next start.
Big Danger: Zoustar has won three from three which is hard to knock and if he can run the mile will be right in the finish.
Roughie: Navelina is currently at $67 in betting which i couldn’t believe. She had a tough run last start against a decent field and wasn’t beaten far. Better suited here and looks tremendous value.
$500 Vilanova Free Bet
Race Seven: Channel Seven Queensland Derby 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: Honorius didn’t have any favours last start when jumping from barrier 12. Rodd had to go earlier than i thought he would have liked to which was made tough by a slow speed up front. Has drawn barrier 4 will get the site on the leaders and show he is one of the best 3yo stayers in the country.
Don’t Back Me: Gondokoro was too good last start against the fillies but she meets some very good colts here and doesn’t get that much of a weight allowance. This race was an after thought which i don’t like either and i feel she is a risk in the race.
Big Danger: Survived was sent out as even money favourite last start and there were plenty of excuses for him in that race and should go close here.
Roughie: Sir Denzel has been looking for more distance i feel and is bred to get the trip. Has been running well and the $51 looks very tempting for him on Saturday.
$500 Honorius Free Bet
Race Eight: Aami Stradbroke Hcp 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Epaulette is one of the best horses in Australia in my opinion and although he has drawn wide and will carry 56kg, class should prevail. The $7.50 at Sportsbet looks very good odds and i think the big money will come for him come race day.
Don’t Back Me: Your Song won well in the wet two starts ago were he got everything to suit. Ridden upside down last start and was well beaten, i think they should have retired him to stud after the BTC Cup.
Big Danger: Better Than Ready ran a very good race last start and he meets Epaulette much better in the weights here and looks the horse who will be making his run with him. Big danger.
Roughie: Spirit Of Boom’s run last start was superb when racing wide and hitting the line well. He drops 5kg from that run and will get an easy run in transit from barrier 2, he will need a bit of luck but if he does he will be in the finish.
$500 Epaulette Free Bet
Race Eight: Croser Brisbane Cup 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: Lightinthenite finds a much easier field here and he drops in weight/ Has drawn a little wide but Glen Boss is one of if not the best long distance jockeys in the country and should be able to find a good site for him. Looks massive value at $15 and should be in single figures.
Don’t Back Me: Moriarty has an easier race last start and better conditions and didn’t get the job done that makes me wonder if he can win this.
Big Danger: Margins had a lot go wrong for him last start and wasn’t beaten far. Gets into this race better in the race and has drawn a better barrier. If he can get a better run he should be right in the finish at $15.
Roughie: Zurella has shown she is a very good horse and i feel she is much better suited in this race as opposed to her last few starts and looks a great each way bet.
$500 Lightinthenite Free Bet
Best Bet: Epaulette was simply too good for them last start and i doubt the wide barrier will be a concern with what looks to be good speed in the race. Will enjoy the extra distance and i doubt the $7.50 will last.
Next Best: Fire Up Fifi is a quality runner on the up against some classy horses although the conditions she has outweigh any class advantage they may have over her (if any).
Best Roughie: Lightinthenite looks a big chance in the Brisbane Cup and at $15 is a very good each way bet to either top of a profitable day or get you out of trouble in the last of the day.
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