The Adelaide Racing Carnival warms right up this Saturday at Morphettville with a cracking program filled with several blacktype events. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; Out five metres for the remainder.
Race One (13:08) : UBET SA Derby May 13 Handicap 1050m:
Back Me: 6 Mr So And So (Bet Now: $2.70) is a So You Think gelding on debut for the Freedman camp. They must think this horse has some ability for him to be on the road for his first start and he has looked the part at the Flemington jump outs, showing really good promise from what I’ve seen. I think he can beat these first up.
Big Danger: 3 Royal Effort (Bet Now: $4.80) trialled up okay prior to debuting on the Parks track a fortnight back where he sat just off the speed and chased hard all the way but was clearly no match for the above average Spiritual Girl, who will go around as a leading chance in the Dequetteville. Should come on from the debut run and stable rider takes over now.
Long Shot: 1 Tabbing (Bet Now: $5.50) is the best performed of the race brigade, so he has to go in. He ran over 1200m on the Parks track a fortnight back where he led all the way and beat the very promising youngster Danger Deal. I think back to the 1050m is a big tick, I think he’ll lead and take some stopping given he’s hard fit and will be strong late.
Race Two (13:43) : MAC Drink Driving? GROW UP Dequetteville Stakes 1050m:
Back Me: 3 Freeze Over (Bet Now: $1.80) was the first runner for John Sadler and Contract Racing at Sandown and the filly was heavily backed off the back of some impressive jump outs and she didn’t let the punters down with a superb on speed win and the time was clearly after than the other 1000m winner that day, Nasdex. Very promising filly who should take some beating.
Big Danger: 2 Spiritual Girl (Bet Now: $3.60) for me here in a really good edition of the Gold Rush. She resumed on the Parks track last Saturday where she was backed as if unbeatable and justified that quote with a cruisy win. Clearly more depth here, but looks above average and stable should always be respected on the road.
Long Shot: 5 Split Lip (Bet Now: $18.00) rises in grade here but she is one of the better local runners engaged here. Resumed over 1000m on the Parks track where she had a charmed run off the speed and once she presented, she dashed and scored quite a dominant win. Clearly more depth here, and lacks the class of stablemate Spiritual Girl, but she does appear overs.
Race Three (14:23) : Graeme Conron Handicap 1600m:
Back Me: I think 11 Evangelist (Bet Now: $6.50) can get the job done here. Had his first run for Will Clarken last Saturday over 1400m on the Parks track where he got a mile back in the run but chimed in nicely and looked the winner, but was no match for the blousing finish of Here To There. Much better suited on the course proper and up to 1600m, plus Will Clarken has a fab record with tried horses as well as runners on the seven day turnaround.
Big Danger: 2 Dubai Escapade (Bet Now: $11.00) is the big watch here. Former WA stayer that is having his first run for Darren Weir. Best form is over 2000m+, but we know what Weir can do with these tried horses, especially those from WA eg Black Heart Bart, Real Love. He does have a good record first up record and stable rider picks this one.
Long Shot: 3 Excites Zelady (Bet Now: $8.50) is also on the seven day back up. He ran over 1550m on the Parks track last week and did a very good job to get the win given he was held up a touch in the straight when appearing to have plenty to offer then when he got clear, he finished off hard to win, and with 59kg. Tumbles down to 54kg now, draws well and Caboche sticks.
Race Four (15:03) : Schweppes Oaks May 6 Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 11 Gogo Grace (Bet Now: $4.20) is a talented filly for the Maconald/Gluyas team who performed quite well in a couple of runs during the Melbourne Spring without winning. Tipped out and resumed over this track/distance on March 4 where she absolutely spanked them under Lindop and won like a good horse. Can only improve off that and rates highly.
Long Shot: 12 Invisible Girl (Bet Now: $7.00) rises sharply in grade but there is a bit to like about this horse and the way she goes about it. Gave them a spanking two back at Balaklava to break the maiden tag before going to the Parks track where she was held up a touch but once she got clear air, it was game over and she came right away. Confident she can measure up here.
Long Shot: 7 Desert Lashes (Bet Now: $12.00) is a star filly from Alice Springs who is six from six. Won first five starts on her home track in the red centre before dipping her toe into the water in the big smoke over 1200m here and fighting on superbly to get the job done. Despite drawing wide, she maps well here and I think she’ll be leading.
Race Five (15:43) : Darley Goodwood May 20 Handicap (75) 1600m:
Back Me: 6 Battlecamp (Bet Now: $3.30) was one of the runs of the day when racing over 1400m at Flemington three weeks back. That was the day where it was impossible to make up ground, but he did and was very good late behind Top Me Up. Back up to the mile is a big tick, and the genuine tempo will suit him perfectly here.
Big Danger: 5 Fastnet Latina (Bet Now: $4.00) is a former American galloper who is three from three down under with Archie Alexander. His latest win came under the lights at Moonee Valley where he was a short priced elect and didn’t let his supporters down with a tough all the way win. Different gravy here, but he did show in the previous two runs that he is versatile in terms of racing pattern.
Long Shot: 18 Cyclone Thomas (Bet Now: $16.00) has been given a five week freshen up since racing over 1800m where he got a mile back in the run and closed off strongly as he always does when third to the Team Freedman trained Stone Warrior. I think back to the mile will really suit him, and if they go hard in front, he’s the one to watch late.
Race Six (16:23) : Chad Hancock Foundation Handicap (82) 1200m:
Back Me: 18 Call Me Curtis.. (Bet Now: $11.00) yes, I have a death wish putting him on top, but I will. He is such a good horse with an enormous amount of ability, but he just does so much wrong and costs himself victory, as we have seen his past couple, including a fortnight back on the Parks track where he hit the front but turned it up. Just needs to show 1% more desire and he’ll just about beat these.
Big Danger: 7 Tidy Prophet (Bet Now: $31.00) is a talented mare that resumes here for Will Clarken. She ran some ripping races during the Spring and you could say she was a touch unlucky not to win a race or two when campaigning in Victoria. Best form is over further, and has a horror fresh record, but she did trial up well recently.
Long Shot: 17 Double Pockets (Bet Now: $61.00) is a talented type that resumes for the Sue Nolan yard. Normally takes a run or two to find his best, but he is capable when right. Performed quite well during the Spring/Summer and was always thereabouts. Needs the speed on, but if it is, look for him late.
Race Seven (17:03) : See South Australia Laelia Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Kenedna (Bet Now: $2.80) hasn’t raced for four weeks since racing in the Kewney where she did a mighty job to run third to I Am A Star given the bias and tempo was against her yet she still savaged the line. She’s been up for a long time, but she’s in the right stable for that scenario to do that successfully.
Big Danger: 3 Zunbaqa (Bet Now: $3.60) was a surprise drifter in the market when racing over the mile at Sandown last start given she looked the sole speed in the race and that is how it panned out. She dominated from the front and spanked them. That should do her confidence the world of good and she will take some beating here if she can lead.
Long Shot: 2 Pretty Punk (Bet Now: $12.00) is the local filly with upside and promise. She ran over 1400m on the Parks track a fortnight back against the older horses and she was desperately unlucky when third to Tycoon Queen given she was badly held up in the straight when looking the winner. If the breaks go her way here, she’s a knockout hope.
Race Eight (17:40) : The Junction Port Adelaide Guineas 1800m:
Back Me: 3 Odeon (Bet Now: $2.75) is a progressive three year old for the Ellerton/Zahra camp who comes here in ripping form. Came with a well timed run to win fresh at Bendigo before going to the Mornington Guineas where he was given a peach from Jamie Mott and the horse gave back in return with a dominant win. Ran well up to 2000m in the Spring, so the 1800m here looks ideal and he has upside.
Big Danger: 11 Volatile Mix (Bet Now: $13.00) had confident market support late when taking on the older horses over the mile at Ballarat and despite a few anxious moments, as well as a slow tempo, he came with a very well timed run out wide and really attacked the line with purpose to get the win. He is one horse who will eat up the extra trip, he is only third up and has the Darren Weir polish.
Long Shot: 7 Lord Macau (Bet Now: $18.00), on face value, was disappointing last time out behind Odeon in the Mornington Guineas, but I think perhaps Baster got the tactics wrong on the horse. He tried to stack them up in in front and this horse just doesn’t really have a turn of foot and when they sprinted around him, he couldn’t match it. I think if he is allowed to roll along here, he’ll take some beating.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Kenedna
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 6 Battlecamp
VALUE: Race Six Number 18 Call Me Curtis
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 5, 6
Leg Two: 5, 7, 9, 12, 14, 15, 17, 18
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 7, 11
$50 Investment= 15.62% of the dividend if successful
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