Normality somewhat returns to Victorian racing this Saturday with a nine race card at Caulfield, highlighted by the Galilee Series Final (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:12) : Wellington RC Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Banish (Bet Now: $3.20) for me here in the opener. Smart looking filly for Godolphin and John O’Shea who debuted at Randwick on Boxing Day where she had a nice sit just off the speed and chased hard but was no match late for One More Honey, who of course went on to win at Stakes grade. Trial at Cranbourne was very good, draws well and Mallyon is having a fab run with the Blue Army.
Big Danger: 1 Plutocracy (Bet Now: $2.70) was somewhat unwanted in betting when debuting on the Parks track at Morphettville but gee I thought he was quite impressive when settling off the pace and producing a lovely turn of foot to win impressively. Clearly more depth here, but a likely type and should measure up.
Long Shot: 3 Give (Bet Now: $8.00) was given no hope in the betting when running at Ballarat but he got very close when a narrow second to Platinum after getting back to near last in the run and coming home hard late. Trained on the track and looks a knockout hope here.
Race Two (13:00) : Hyderabad RC Handicap (78) 1800m:
Back Me: Pretty confident here on 11 Stone Warrior (Bet Now: $4.00). He had been bursting to win a race for some time but it finally came on the board over 1800m at Morphettville last time out when ridden a treat by Moor and rightfully bolted up. Remains at 1800m of a little freshen up, but despite the break between runs, he is one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: 13 Rockstar Rebel (Bet Now: $3.20) is a talented three year old for Darren Weir who has a stack of upside under his belt and will love the rise to 1800m. He ran over the mile at Sandown last time out where he just got too far back in the run yet made up a stack of ground to run fourth to Alrouz. Crying out for further, which he gets here and this is a very winnable assignment.
Long Shot: 9 Thermogenic (Bet Now: $21.00) could be the big improver here at odds. He is on the quick back up after racing last Saturday at Bairsndale where he had to lump 61.5kg and come from a wide gate, and that effort just took away his finish when eventually running fourth. You go through his form, and there are some nice types there. Knockout chance with only 51kg on his back.
Race Three (13:35) : Buyaracehorse.com.au Handicap 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Sebring Dream (Bet Now: $9.00) for me here. She comes here off the back of a placing in the Alexandra Stakes at the Valley where she got back in the run and closed off nicely late behind Oregons Day. She is a filly with really good promise and her efforts this time in indicate she is ready to run a beauty here.
Big Danger: 7 Fudged (Bet Now: $21.00) resumed over 1400m at Sandown last Wednesday and she was most unlucky behind Gold Fontein. Got badly held up behind the leaders when appearing to have plenty to offer. She will love the step up to the mile and with the run under the belt, she will only improve.
Long Shot: 11 Bettyrae Ruby (Bet Now: $61.00) had some really good form behind her from the Spring prior to resuming over 1400m at Cranbourne last Friday night where I thought she did a really good job against the older horses, sitting back off the speed and chasing hard all the way when second to Dry Biscuit. Should improve with the run under the belt now and draws the inside gate with the claim for Bayliss.
Race Four (14:15) : Ladbrokes Galilee Series Final 2400m:
Back Me: Most of these come through a 2000m race at Ballarat and I think 4 Fontein Lad (Bet Now: $3.30) is the one to beat from that event that runs here. He did a bit of work from the gate early on in that race and that probably told on him late when grabbed by Baykool. I think with a more economical run here, he can turn the tables and be a force.
Big Danger: I think this race is all about 1 Wine Bush (Bet Now: $4.60). If he brings anything near his best form, he just wins. But if he doesn’t, it’s a lottery. I’ll take the gamble that he will improve on the firmer surface. He comes through the Tulloch where he pulled his head off and hated the mud when behind subsequent Derby winner Jon Snow. His efforts on dry ground have been quite pleasing, and this is a very weak race compared to what he has been facing.
Long Shot: 13 Bint El Bedu (Bet Now: $16.00) comes through the Ballarat race and I thought her effort was quite good, sitting back in the ruck and finishing off with purpose to run fifth, beaten three lengths. She is crying out for further, which she gets here, on her home track, and the run prior behind Farson in the Autumn Classic was a beauty so she has some form next to her name.
Race Five (14:55) : Sandown Park (UK) Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: Considering the noms this race had, it’s a poor race now. Landed with 6 Gun Case (Bet Now: $4.50), but with not much confidence. Talented yet frustrating galloper that was formerly with Liam Birchely but had a prep with the Weir camp last time out. The highlight came at the Valley when he won over 955m. Very good fresh horse and draws well with the claim for Allen.
Big Danger: 4 Malibu Style (Bet Now: $8.50) is the very interesting runner here. First up for the Parnham yard who was a bit hit and miss during the Summer Carnival over there but did win the Crawford to confirm he is a quality galloper when right. Comes here off the back of no trials, but has avery good fresh record and draws to get the suck run behind the speed.
Long Shot: 8 Bullpit (Bet Now: $11.00) is a nightmare to trust, but he is quite capable on his day, and this does look a very winnable assignment for this galloper. Ran over 955m on William Reid Night at the Valley and couldn’t lead, which probably sealed his fate when sixth to Beau Rada. He is best when he can lead, and I don’t see much pressure here for him, so he could carve over. If so, he’ll take some running down.
Race Six (15:35) : Selangor Turf Club Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Ken’s Dream (Bet Now: $3.60) is a talented youngster for the Weir camp who wasn’t given much hope last time out over 1200m at the Valley given he was wide no cover for the trip and that just took away his finishing burst when running a distant second to stablemate Artie Dee Two. Confident he can turn the tables and Yendall is back on.
Big Danger: 4 Falcool (Bet Now: $8.00) had a bit of support when resuming down the straight at Flemington and he didn’t let his supporters down with a really good win, aided by a lovely steer from Bowman. Bowman then produced a howler in that Valley race mentioned above. Nothing went right and was the hard luck story. Only needs better luck here to go close.
Long Shot: 9 Verstappen (Bet Now: $10.00) has been very good in two runs back from a break for the Danny O’Brien yard. Should have won first up when a narrow second to Tigidig Tigidig at the Valley before racing down the Flemington straight where he ran second to Rich Charm. Looks ready third up from a break and should be cherry ripe fitness wise.
Race Seven (15:35) : Frank O’Brien Handicap 1800m:
Back Me: 4 French Emotion (Bet Now: $2.50) comes through the Sunline Stakes (1600m) at the Valley where I thought she did a really good job in defeat behind star filly I Am A Star because that girl walked them in front and was given the race on a platter, but French Emotion didn’t turn it up at all. The key to her is dry tracks and she gets it here. Hard to beat.
Back Me: 2 Great Esteem (Bet Now: $6.50) comes through the CS Hayes on Adelaide Cup Day where he attempted to lead all the way and he gave a really good kick but was nabbed late by Burning Front, who ran bravely in defeat last Saturday in the Golden Mile at Bendigo. Gets map favours here once again and with a cheap sectional, he will be in it for a long way for sure.
Long Shot: 3 Hazzabeel (Bet Now: $10.00) is the big improver here at odds. He worked home with purpose against the tempo fresh in the Apache Cat at Cranbourne before going to the 1400m at Flemington where he was caught wide no cover on a genuine tempo and faded out of the finish late. Suited up to 1800m and being third up, he should just about be cherry ripe fitness wise.
Race Eight (16:15) : JRA Handicap 2400m:
Back Me: 5 Hans Holbein (Bet Now: $1.80) is on the quick back up for Team Williams after racing at this trip at Bendigo last Saturday where he appreciated a fast tempo and once Rawiller gave him clear air from the 700m onwards, it was painless if you were on and he gave them a nice licking. Has been teasing to do that, and now that he has got the job done, he can go right on with it.
Big Danger: 1 Boom Time (Bet Now: $4.40) is the clear class runner and with the claim for Beau Mertens, he gets in quite well at the weights to my eye. He ran fifth in the Mornington Cup and did a really good job there I thought because the tempo/bias was against him and he just doesn’t have that turn of foot. This looks more his go and he’ll be in it for a long way.
Long Shot: 8 Lucques (Bet Now: $15.00) ran over 2000m at Mornington a fortnight back and I thought he was much better when third to Snitzelwood where he sat just off the pace and tried hard but the rock hard surface and bias probably didn’t suit him. Fourth up now, so he should just about be ready fitness wise and he does classy form from the Spring next to his name.
Race Nine (17:30) : Mick Dillon Constructions Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: Landed with 7 Lake Como (Bet Now: $4.80) in a pretty open mares race to conclude the card. Hard to ignore what she did fresh down the straight at Flemington. She absolutely spanked them and there were runners with Group form in that event, and she made them look ordinary. Can she repeat the dose? Time will tell, but I’ll take the gamble.
Big Danger: 2 Atmospherical (Bet Now: $6.00) is a quality mare that resumes for Robert Smerdon. She is definitely blacktype class but she hasn’t quite put it all together since joining the Robert Smerdon despite showing great promise. Two trials leading in have been good, the latest coming on Monday at Cranbourne behind Miss Vista. Sprints well fresh and she’ll be flashing late.
Long Shot: 5 Aegean Sea (Bet Now: $8.50) is the big watch here. Former Clarry Conners trained mare that is now with Danny O’Brien. Hasn’t raced since the Oakleigh Plate (1100m) where she was clearly outclassed behind Sheidel in a hot race. Switched stables and trialled up really nicely I thought a couple of weeks back at Cranbourne. If she can get on speed without doing much work, she’ll take some beating.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 Hans Holbein
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 4 French Emotion
VALUE: Race Two Number 11 Stone Warrior
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 9, 11, 12, 20
Leg Two: 2, 3, 4
Leg Three: 1, 5
Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7
$50 Investment= 23.80% of the dividend if successful
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