The high class racing continues at Ascot this Saturday where it is WA Derby Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (14:10) : Rentokil Initial Handicap (1MW) 1000m:
Back Me: Pretty keen here on 4 Snow Lord (Bet Now: $1.65) in the opener. On the back up for Team Williams after racing last Saturday at this track/distance where he was most unlucky. Got badly held up behind tired runners before eventually getting clear and savaging the line to just miss out. Only needs normal luck here to be winning.
Big Danger: 7 Just Fluke (Bet Now: $5.00) trialled up brilliantly at Pinjarra prior to resuming down the straight there where he ran right up the to the trial and blitzed them, running decent time and putting a margin on his rivals. Different gravy here, but he has the run under the belt and does look the leader.
Long Shot: 5 Cataplexic (Bet Now: $12.00) is a sparingly raced made that resumes for the Cliff Green stable. Has only had four career outings but is very promising to the eye. Hasn’t raced since October when sprouting wings late to win fresh at Geraldton. No trials leading in, but small field helps her.
Race Two (14:50) : Racing Minister Paul Papalia Trophy 1000m:
Back Me: First starters hold the key here, with the pick of those being 10 Dynamite Dream (Bet Now: $3.40) to my eye. Jim Taylor trained filly that has been given a good grounding for her debut with several trials. Won a 1000m trial in good time before a nice tune up over 400m. Draws a good gate and the blinkers are on first up.
Big Danger: 9 Danes Maree (Bet Now: $3.40) is a filly on debut for the Brett Pope yard. She is another debutante who has also looked the part at the trials, though the times haven’t been as quick as Dynamite Dream. But the big key for this filly is that Pike steers first up, so that is a lead for me.
Long Shot: 1 Sunboss (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Sebring colt on debut for the Trevor Andrews yard. He draws wide so that is the big query, but he has looked pretty good to the eye at the trials, the latest when second to Dynamite Dream. As I said, the task is made harder with the draw, but I like him.
Race Three (15:30) : Tabtouch Maiden 1500m:
Back Me: 9 Duck Feet (Bet Now: $4.60) clearly on top for me here. Handy looking gelding for the Pope yard who ran over this trip at Pinjarra last time out and was given a horror run in transit, sitting wide no cover throughout and weakening late but fighting on well. Draws a much better gate here and Pike steers. One to beat.
Big Danger: 12 Massa Mac (Bet Now: $6.50) is a nice type that will appreciate the drop in depth. He contested a no win metro race last Wednesday over the mile here where he attempted to lead all the way and to his credit he gave a really good kick but just couldn’t quite run the trip out. Maps well here and gets the claim for Randy Tan.
Long Shot: 11 Maregra (Bet Now: $8.00) was 53 days between runs when racing over 1200m at Pinjarra last time out and he lacked the necessary turn of foot but kept whacking away strongly to run third. Gives the impression he will love the step up in trip, he draws well also so he should sit closer in the run.
Race Four (16:10) : Sheila Gwynne Classic 1400m:
Back Me: Going with 5 Forever Diamonds (Bet Now: $4.20) to turn the tables on Dendee here. They both resumed over 1200m here a fortnight back and Forever Diamonds was ridden far too close to the speed and she was gassed in the straight. Much better when ridden with cover and having the last say. That should eventuate here.
Big Danger: 2 Dendee (Bet Now: $2.60) won that race and continued her excellent fresh record. Given a peach of a steer from Parnham, the mare was well positioned throughout and rightfully dashed away for a dominant win. Not quite as dynamic second up, but the small field and lack of depth will take care of that query.
Long Shot: 4 Another Vision (Bet Now: $9.50) rises in grade but is one to include in multiples for sure. She ran over this track/distance last Saturday where she got a mile back in the run and finished off with purpose to run third to Bollywood Blitz. This is a significant step up, but the small field will ensure she isn’t a long way back like she normally can be.
Race Five (16:50) : Red Shoe Society Handicap (78+) 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Conseated (Bet Now: $3.80) clearly on top for me here. She ran over this track/distance two weeks back where she attempted to lead all the way and she gave a really good kick but was nabbed near the peg by the above average Dendee. No horse of that class here, maps well and should take some beating.
Big Danger: 8 More Aces (Bet Now: $2.70) is a nippy three year old that is taking on the older horses but most importantly gets really good weight relief here. He lumped 59kg a fortnight ago at this track/distance where he copped too much pressure on speed and that told late when caught by Next Generation. He will make sure they know he’s in the race.
Long Shot: 7 Dueton (Bet Now: $19.00) is a horror horse to follow, but he can bob up every now and then, which was the case two weeks back over 1200m here where he sat near the speed in a new role and showed some fight when third to Max Almighty. He is best when ridden cold, so if that can happen here, he will be flashing late.
Race Six (17:35) : Real Iced Tea Co Handicap (72+) 1600m:
Back Me: 3 Ripper Rio (Bet Now: $2.20) looks the way to go here. On the quick back up after racing here last Saturday where he was given a sweet steer by Pike just off the pace and once he presented with clear air he chased hard and got the win in the final couple of strides. He should come on from that and rates highly.
Big Danger: 2 Rosmartini (Bet Now: $11.00) attempted to lead all the way in that Ripper Rio race mentioned above and I think she just overdid it on the front end and was left gassed the final 250m. I think she gets a very soft lead here, small field helps and if she can indeed pinch a cheap furlong, she could take some running down.
Long Shot: 8 Pushin’ Shapes (Bet Now: $9.00) is a talented four year old for the Pearce yard who had been a bit frustrating to follow but he has found some consistency in a couple of runes this time in, the latest coming three weeks back when chasing a potential star in Galaxy Star. No horse of that calibre here, and he should just about be ready fitness wise.
Race Seven (18:15) : Raconteur Stakes 1500m:
Back Me: 5 Quilista (Bet Now: $2.00) is a high class filly who is putting together a very good line of picket fences next to her name. She comes through the Rangeview Stud at Bunbury where she was given a peach by Pike and rightfully bolted in. Looks as if she will eat up the 1500m here and Pike sticks.
Big Danger: 3 Minus Looks (Bet Now: $7.50) is a quality galloper for the Steve Wolfe yard who resumed over 1200m here where he got back in the run yet finished off quite strongly to run a close up fifth to Next Generation. Looks ideally suited up to 1500m and has a stack of upside. Knockout chance.
Long Shot: 2 Gangbuster (Bet Now: $11.00) was tried as a Derby prospect but he didn’t quite run the 2200m out last time out, but he was a mile back in the run and was asked to do too much IMHO. Back to 1500m is ideal I think and he would clearly be on top had it not been for Quilista. Still, a key threat.
Race Eight (18:50) : Schweppes WATC Derby 2400m:
Back Me: Keen to see what 9 Rock With You (Bet Now: $8.00) does here. Granted he didn’t beat much last start in breaking his maiden status at Wangaratta, but to win by 13 lengths was impressive, no matter where the race and what class it is. Looks an out and out stayer so the 2400m is perfect and I like the fact that the stable have sent him over.
Big Danger: 1 Gatting (Bet Now: $4.80) is probably the best of the local chances. Been up for a long time but has been racing so well throughout. He, like most here, come through the Melvista a fortnight back where he got a long way back in the run but sprouted wings late to grab victory near the peg. Don’t see the 2400m being an issue, and from a good draw, he can sit much closer in the run.
Long Shot: 15 Just Like Fire (Bet Now: $19.00) is another filly that comes through the Oaks from last Saturday and her effort was quite good in defeat. Clearly no match for the front pair but stuck on well in defeat. At least in confirmed that she will run the 2400m strongly and she does get the weight pull.
Race Nine (19:25) : Good Friday Raceday April 14 Handicap (66+) 1400m:
Back Me: Keen to see what 11 Royal Missile (Bet Now: $3.20) does here. Above average filly that resumes for Simon Miller after a pretty strong rope during the Summer Carnival where she ran well in a couple of Stakes races. Trial leading in was quite encouraging, she’s down in the weights and has class.
Big Danger: 1 Majinika (Bet Now: $3.20) is a talented gelding that has been given a four week freshen up since racing over 1400m here where he sat on speed and just couldn’t quite finish it off when sixth to Settlers Creek. Back to 1200m with the break between runs should do him the world of good and rates highly.
Long Shot: 4 Distant Memory (Bet Now: $10.00) is a handy mare that resumed over this track/distance a fortnight back where she was wide no for the trip and worked home okay late without threatening behind Dendee. Second up record doesn’t read to great, but she draws a soft gate and will be strong late.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 3 Ripper Rio
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 4 Snow Lord
VALUE: Race Eight Number 9 Rock With You
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 7
Leg Two: 2, 3, 5
Leg Three: 9, 13, 14, 15
Leg Four: 1, 4, 7, 8, 9, 11
$50 Investment= 34.72% of the dividend if successful
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