Eight races will be run and won at Belmont this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (14:03) Tabtouch Maiden 1000m
5 Battle Storm (Bet Now: $1.50) for me here. Adam Durrant trains this four year old gelding, who is on debut. Has only had the one public trial, which came a few weeks back at Lark Hill where he was most impressive in winning and though the time was nothing flash, the manner in which he did it was sharp. Happy to be with him.
1 Gessato (Bet Now: $2.90) is a Sean Casey trained son of Dick Turpin who was hard in the market when resuming over 1200m here a fortnight back where he was wide no cover on speed yet kept fighting and was only beaten off late by Patristic. Just needs better luck this time around and he’ll be a definite threat.
8 Duck Duck Goose (Bet Now: $14.00) is a daughter of Dick Turpin on debut for the Lindsey Smith stable. This girl had a couple of trials at the end of the season in July and to the eye went pretty good, the latest seeing her place behind Bruny Island, who has performed well at Pinjarra in a couple of runs. Definitely one to watch from a market perspective.
Race 2. (14:38) Magic Millions Handicap (78+) 2200m
I’ll give 5 State Prosecutor (Bet Now: $2.40) another chance up in trip. Talented four year old for the Williams team who was five weeks between runs when racing over the mile here a fortnight ago and he just seemed to lack the dash to finish off when down the track behind Prize Catch. Gate one, up in trip, fitter, he can bounce back.
3 Prying Tom (Bet Now: $2.40) is a Sharon Miller trained gelding who is racing in near career best form at the moment. He was given an absolute peach by Kennedy to win over the 2100m here two weeks ago, trucking up beautifully behind the speed before angling clear and dashing too well for his rivals. Bit harder here, but have to like the way he’s going about it.
2 Dark Musket (Bet Now: $8.50) could be one to include in exotics. He comes through the Prize Catch race mentioned above where he got well back off the speed and actually didn’t do a bad job to get as close as he did behind the Lindsey Smith runner. He’ll eat up the extra trip this time around and does have plenty of upside.
Race 3. (15:18) Argonaut Corporate Advisers & Stockbrokers Plate 1400m
2 True Defender (Bet Now: $1.55) looks a promising gelding for the Williams camp who was an even money chance when resuming here last Thursday and despite doing a bit wrong pre race and during the race, he proved far too good for his rivals. Think he can measure up to this level and prove hard to beat.
1 Pagan Image (Bet Now: $2.60) is two weeks between runs for Adam Durrant since racing over 1300m here where he settled last in the run before Knuckey peeled him widest on the turn and he let down strongly but couldn’t quite get there when running a narrow third to Classic Pro. Up to 1400m should suit and won’t be giving away too big of a start.
7 Lady Ameera (Bet Now: $35.00) is a daughter of Playing God on debut for the Neville Parnham stable. This girl didn’t show too much in her first two trials to date but looked much better last week at Lark Hill when placing behind Dancing Jack. Good depth to this field so I doubt she can win but perhaps she’s one for exotics.
Race 4. (15:58) Amelia Park Lodge Handicap (66+) 1400m
4 Electric Light, (Bet Now: $2.10) if she handles the back up, should be winning this. Ran last Saturday over 1200m here where I thought she was a near good thing due to the rain affected track and even though it was only in the last stride, she got there. If the track does dry, that won’t hurt her chances and she’s backed up in ten days pretty well.
7 Rockon Tommy (Bet Now: $3.80) is two weeks between runs for the Bill Doughty team after racing over 1200m here where he ran well just off the speed but was no match for the brilliance produced by Crystal Spirit. Has run well at 1400m before, albeit in easier grade. Well found in the market, but can win with the right trip.
9 Turbo Power (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Neville Parnham trained gelding who was dynamite when winning over 1300m here two back before stepping back to 1200m where he was a bit tardy away and that sealed his chances behind Crystal Spirit. His best chances will be if he jumps, leads and runs at a decent clip. Can be a threat if that eventuates.
Race 5. (16:38) Tabtouch Masters Handicap (1MW) 1000m
Really keen to see what 7 Route Eighty Eight (Bet Now: $3.00) does here first up for Justin Warwick. Took her a fair while to break the maiden tag but put it together towards the end of last prep, winning a couple of races on the bounce before placing at this track/distance behind Stageman. Two trials leading in have been pretty good and can sprint well fresh.
10 State Attorney (Bet Now: $2.40) is four weeks between runs for Adam Durrant since resuming at this track/distance on a bog where he took his time to get going but once he got going, he was pretty good late in the piece when second to It’s Got It All. Been given time to recover from that and can definitely win.
2 Niccatrice (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Nicconi gelding resuming for the Mark Bairstow team. This bloke won the Regional Championship during the Ascot Carnival last year and for the most part raced quite consistently. Can sprint well fresh and gee he’s been an eye catcher in a couple of trials, showing real zip and intent that he’ll run well first up.
Race 6. (17:18) Glenroy Chaff Handicap (1MW) 1300m
I think 3 Patapus (Bet Now: $3.70) is the bet of the meeting. Holly Locke has this mare flying I think and she finds a very winnable race. Three weeks between runs since running second to the above average Pym’s Royale over 1200m here. 1300m certainly no issue and the speed map says she’ll get over quite comfortably.
4 Bold Success (Bet Now: $2.45) is a definite threat and the fact he is says that the race doesn’t have much depth. Ran over 1400m here a fortnight back and once he popped into clear air in the straight, he once again looked the winner and once again turned it up, being held into second. One day he’ll win, could be here…but it’ll be without my coin.
7 Rogan Scent (Bet Now: $15.00) could be a sleeper. She resumed in the race mentioned above that Bold Success ran second in. She was pretty disappointing I thought. Sat up outside the speed and looked to travel well but as soon as the pressure was applied, she folded and was the first horse beat. Better than that so give her another look.
Race 7. (17:52) Metal West Recycling Handicap (72+) 1600m
Now he’s got a win on the board, I think 3 Luke’s Gold (Bet Now: $6.50) can repeat the dose. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago and I thought it was a ripping ride from Carbery, getting him close enough on the turn and with clear air. Took his time to get there but he eventually got the bob in. Hopefully he can go on with it.
7 Fair Sonari (Bet Now: $3.70) is a son of Trade Fair for Stephen Miller who ran fourth in the race won by Luke’s Gold and I thought his effort was pretty good given he was wide no cover on speed so he really had every right to drop out but he kept finding and was only bloused late. Just needs better luck and he can win.
5 Charlestown (Bet Now: $15.00) could be an improver at odds. He comes through the Luke’s Gold race where he started $101 but ran well above those expectations with a close up sixth after doing work from the wide gate. Draws much better this time around and does have more upside than most. $15+ looks overs.
Race 8. (18:30) David Grays Aglink Handicap (72+) 1200m
6 Big Caroline (Bet Now: $5.00) for me in the get out in a race between two for mine. This girl ran over this track/distance a fortnight ago where she got back to last in the run from the wide gate and let down strongly late but gave away too much start behind Crystal Spirit. Gets a weight pull on that horse here and draws much better.
4 Crystal Spirit (Bet Now: $1.75) is a former Victorian who seems to be loving life in WA under Chris Gangemi, winning 2/2, both at this track/distance, the latest being the race mentioned above where he absolutely bolted in and landed some big bets. Can definitely win again, but I couldn’t take anything silly short.
I reckon 9 Helms Gate (Bet Now: $17.00) is definitely one for exotics. He finished midfield in the Crystal Spirit race mentioned above and I thought he should have finished a touch closer, but he raced tight between runners without much room. Will get room from the wide gate and does drop big time in weight after the claim.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 3 Patapus
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 6 Big Caroline
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 3 Luke’s Gold
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 4, 7, 10
Leg Two: 3
Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 7
Leg Four: 4, 6
$50 Investment= 156.25% of the dividend if successful
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