Sydney racing on Monday heads to Warwick Farm for an eight race program. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:15) Queen's Birthday Plate 1100m
He’s on debut in town but 1 Deep Space (Bet Now: $1.50) looks the good thing on the card. Lovely bred gelding for Kris Lees that is on debut. He was such an impressive trial winner recently at Wyong, leading throughout and when clicked up by Gibbo, the gears were there to see, winning impressively and beating up well performed horses. If he runs up to that, he’ll win here.
3 Stormy Rock (Bet Now: $4.40) is the interesting runner. Matty Dunn trained son of Fastnet Rock that was heavily backed on debut at Newcastle but just went too keen in front and was gassed with 200m to go in a total forgive I think. Just needs to harness his energy better and like that McEvoy, who rode him in the trial prior to the debut, is on.
8 Ultimate Thinker (Bet Now: $7.00) looks next best in what is now a very thin race. Resumed at Wyong when attempting to lead all the way and gave a good kick, but Tom Sherry dropped the whip with around 100m to go. Did it cost her the win? I’m saying no, but she should have finished closer. Home track, bred to handle the conditions and small field helps.
Race 2. (12:50) Iron Jack Plate 1200m
Back in trip is the knock with 9 Scenic Warrior (Bet Now: $5.50) but I thought his debut over 1250m at Canterbury was too good to ignore. Was unwanted in betting, forced out to the quicksand out wide on the turn, copped a check, lost momentum, yet still produced the best last 200m of the race. Would have loved him up to 1400m, but he’ll be strong at the end of 1200m here.
6 Ossabuco (Bet Now: $11.00) is a well bred colt for Chris Waller that is on debut. Hermitage Racing have this guy, who comes here off the back of two trials, the latest being at Canterbury on a near bottomless track where he was ridden out, but responded and was pretty good in running second. J Mac on from an inside gate, a definite market watch.
10 Segal (Bet Now: $8.50) is a son of Sebring having start one for Chris Waller. Another that trialled on that very testing Canterbury surface but he looked to go about his business nicely near the speed and wasn’t really knocked about late when running second. Tricky draw for start one, but gets Nash to steer and potentially is a knockout chance.
Race 3. (13:25) Sky Racing Active Plate 1200m
Leaning the way of 6 Miravalle (Bet Now: $2.60), a daughter of Redoute’s Choice that is on debut for the Mark Newnham team. This girl won a trial recently at Randwick over 1000m when pushed out near the front, but the response was there and she drew clear late to win quite well. Stable finds J Mac to steer for start one, so happy to be in her corner.
10 Party Lady (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Redoute’s Choice filly having start one for Team Snowden. Has had two trials this prep to get ready for her debut and she’s been pretty good each time she has stepped out, the latest seeing her run second at Canterbury to Not An Option, who was awful in the JJ Atkins, so that trial form is a tad suspect, but the way she looked, has to be included.
13 Silhouette (Bet Now: $8.00) is a James Cummings trained filly that has been pretty good in two career outings, both at Kembla, debuting with a fourth to stablemate Duenna before stepping up to 1400m when wide no cover for the trip and fighting on well when third to Zoumist. Back to 1200m is interesting, but has race experience/fitness and draws soft.
Race 4. (14:00) Press Statement @ Vinery Handicap (66) 1600m
Each way for me in the shape of 4 Broadside Amour (Bet Now: $4.50). Resumed over 1300m here where he was a notable drifter late in betting and while the market got it right, I didn’t think he ran too bad, closing off alright late in the piece behind Starla. Tick over trial on the Randwick Synthetic was good and is a horse crying out for ground, which he gets here.
2 Foxborough (Bet Now: $4.00) is the big query here. Talented filly for John Sargent that spanked them to win the Wagga Guineas two back before going to the Randwick 2000m where she finished tailed off last in a horrendous performance, with Stewards ordering her to trial. That she did at Canterbury and looked pretty good. If she’s right, she goes close.
8 Bob’s Your Uncle (Bet Now: $6.50) is a progressive three year old for Craig Carmody that was ridden warm early in a Gosford maiden last start, leading from the outset, controlled things beautifully and really, from the 1000m onwards, it was race over. Good test here, but Rachel King does ride on speed runners very well and I dare say she’ll press forward.
Race 5. (14:35) TAB Handicap (74) 2130m
Hoping that this track improves for the sake of 6 Lord Gododdin (Bet Now: $5.00). Convinced this horse is going well. His effort at Randwick last time out had merit to it, closing off okay on a testing Randwick track behind High Opinion. He seems to be a horse much better suited on firmer footing, so hopefully we can get to a Soft 5 come jump time here and like that Bowman steers.
8 Stockman (Bet Now: $2.15) is the one on the up. Joe Pride trained three year old that showed really good ticker to win over 2000m at Randwick last start, surging the last 150m to wear down a gallant Reinvest. He’s on his home track and you always have to add something on to Warwick Farm gallopers when they’re on their home track.
$30+ for 4 Brazen (Bet Now: $31.00) looks a touch on the silly side IMO. Thought his effort last time out in the Nowra Cup at Goulburn was very good. Loomed to win when he presented, but just couldn’t quite see it through given those in front really dashed from the 600m. He’ll love the rise to this trip, and back on firmer footing certainly helps.
Race 6. (15:10) Calyx @ Coolmore Handicap (70) 1000m
6 Bella Rosa (Bet Now: $9.50) for me. The Maher/Eustace stable trains this filly, who resumed in the Denise’s Joy and while she ran last, she did produce a good split between the 800m-400m, but couldn’t sustain it. Finds a very winnable city race and only have to go back to Cup Day 2018 at Flemington where she won on a very testing track.
10 Spaceboy (Bet Now: $2.05) can be hard to trust, but he’s a talent and 1000m does look his ideal trip. Resumed with a maiden win over the trip at Kembla before stepping up to 1100m and running a game second to Wandabaa, who won on Saturday to frank the form. Stable finds J Mac to steer and will give a great sight on speed.
11 Star Of Harada (Bet Now: $16.00) is a very interesting runner. Was formerly with Terry McCarthy, but with him being disqualified, the horse is now with Wendy Roche. Last run came came on May 25 at Gosford where he would have just about been a good thing beaten had he not got clear, but Penza was able to get clear and the horse did the rest. Clearly harder here, but is another with home track advantage.
Race 7. (15:45) Ranvet Handicap (70) 1300m
6 Threeood (Bet Now: $2.40) looks the only other winning hope. Where has this mare come from. I remember backing her in provincial maidens in Victoria and she couldn’t get the job done. This prep with Joe Pride, she’s becoming a Saturday class horse. Latest run came at Rosehill last Saturday and I loved the way she fought on in defeat behind a smart one in Bound To Win. J Mac goes on, hard fit with home track advantage, very likeable.
16 Invincible Diva (Bet Now: $9.00) is the one with upside that I’m watching closely. Former Irish mare that was kept very safe in betting when resuming on the Kenso track and she was there to do something at the top of the straight but couldn’t quite finish it off. Wet track form is okay, draws the right part of the track and Avdulla has finally found form.
If the track is playing fair, 1 Miss Redoble (Bet Now: $7.50) can win but a wet Warwick Farm surface generally means the inside is off, so gate one is tricky, but her run in the same race Threeood contested behind Bound To Win was very good and a sign that she’s back on. I’d have her as a winning chance if the track is playing fair, but inside at this track when wet, I have her as a place chance only.
Race 8. (16:20) Microphone @ Darley Handicap (70) 1300m
I’m going to take a slice of the $20+ each way available at the time of writing for 4 Boomtown Rat (Bet Now: $10.00). He’s well named from a betting perspective because he has been a rat, but I’ve been a sucker for his two trials, the second of those seeing him win very impressively at Canterbury, and without the Blinkers. They’re on for raceday, he draws the right part of the track and launches late.
1 Hit The Target (Bet Now: $3.60) is a Stephen Jones trained gelding that gave them an absolute spanking two back at Bathurst before going to the Country Cup at Scone when near the speed and battled away strongly to finish a close up second to Luna Mia. Gets the claim for Chris Williams, puts himself on speed and will try hard.
Biggest query on the program is
3 Cristal Breeze (Bet Now: $8.50), a former UK galloper making his Australian debut for Kris Lees and Australian Bloodstock. His form from overseas isn’t A1, but certainly solid enough. He had a rating over there of 83, and comes to Australia with a rating of 70, so in that regard, he’s so well in. Trials have been solid, Blinkers on and Bowman to steer.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race One Number 1 Deep Space
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 4 Boomtown Rat
LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 9 Scenic Warrior
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 8, 13
Leg Two: 3, 6, 7, 10, 11
Leg Three: 1, 6, 7, 16
Leg Four: 1, 4, 10, 18
$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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