The Belmont Winter Carnival continues on Saturday where it is Beaufine Stakes Day. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (14:09) Pickles Memorial Plate 1300m
Hard to see 1 Kelvin (Bet Now: $1.50) get rolled here. Fred Kersley is having a really good run with his juveniles at the moment and this Heritage gelding should take some beating after getting the job done at this track/distance two weeks ago under McNaught, who remains on and with her 3kg claim, only has to carry 55kg, 1kg over the minimum. Wet track no issue either if the rain comes.
7 Eye Of The Day (Bet Now: $4.80) is on the quick back up for Paul Jordan stable after breaking the maiden status at Pinjarra on Sunday, leading throughout under Craig Staples and finding plenty late when challenged and seemingly getting the staggers. That leaves me with doubts at 1300m, but should get a soft lead and on breeding, give in the track should be no drama.
9 Rhythm Star (Bet Now: $21.00) is on the six day back up for Colin Webster after debuting over 1200m at Pinjarra on Sunday when wide no cover on speed and just feeling the pinch late behind Eye Of The Day. Does get a better barrier this time around and had trialled okay prior to that. Not sure she wins, but in a tricky race outside Kelvin, she’s one to throw in multiples.
Race 2. (14:49) Tabtouch Better Your Bet Handicap 1400m
I like the way 7 Forgotten Star (Bet Now: $8.00) has gone about her business this time in. Put together a couple of really sharp wins before just missing out on picking up Sophie’s Song, then running a close up third to Flower Of War here two weeks ago. Was coming back in trip that day which probably wasn’t idea so now back up to 1400m, she does look one of the hardest to beat.
All you can do is win and that is what 2 Flower Of War (Bet Now: $5.50) has done in her career to date, winning 4/4, the latest over 1300m here a fortnight ago when leading all the way. What I liked about the win is that halfway down the straight, she looked in trouble, but she knuckled down strongly late and was holding her rivals on the line so the 1400m should be fine for her.
5 Kakadu (Bet Now: $19.00) is a Vernon Brockman trained gelding who does save his best for wet tracks so if the forecast for decent rain is correct, then he comes right into play. He ran over 1200m here last Wednesday where he sat last in the small field and was never likely given the slow tempo but he did make ground and his run wasn’t too bad. 1400m should suit and is a clear knockout chance, especially if we’re dealing with a rain affected surface.
Race 3. (15:29) Free Entry @Belmont Handicap (1MW) 1400m
5 Gates Of Babylon (Bet Now: $3.20) is in a real purple patch of form at the moment for Brett Pope. Bolted up two back at Ascot, beating State Attorney, who won last Saturday. Then went to this track/distance at the midweeks where he absolutely spanked his rivals once again, leading throughout and bolting in under an in form Brodie Kirby. Just has to repeat that and he’ll go close once again.
11 Western Pride (Bet Now: $2.50) looks one of the hardest to beat for Team Williams. Was a prohibitive odds on pop over 1400m at Pinjarra last time but under a confident steer from Pike, the filly was much too good for her rivals. The query will be what will Pike do from the gate. If he drags back to last, likely spots Gates Of Babylon near double digit lengths at some stage and that horse is flying. Still, a leading chance given the Williams/Pike/Peters factor.
A bit of give in the track will really suit the Team Harvey trained 6 Gifted Warrior (Bet Now: $23.00). Was very good first up on a wet track at Ascot on Good Friday before going through the Provincial Series, placing in a Heat at Northam before finishing down the track in the Final. He’s better than that last start showed, so have to give him another look, especially with rain about.
Race 4. (16:09) Weddings @ Ascot Handicap (70+) 1600m
11 Mystery Miss (Bet Now: $3.00) on top. Team Williams trains this talented filly, who resumed over 1400m here a fortnight ago where she got off the speed and was there to threaten around 250m out but her condition just gave out late behind The Velvet King. Up to the mile and slightly back in depth with Pike remaining on, she looks hard to beat. Give in the track will be okay.
2 Battle Torque…(Bet Now: $8.50) bugger he is. Been on him in the first three runs for the prep where he did nothing. Jumped off, he came to his favourite track at Belmont, was heavily backed and some Pike magic got him home, well and truly confirming that he hates Ascot and is much better suited at Belmont, and now that he has found form, he could well go on with it.
Stepping back up to the mile will suit the Fred Kersley trained 6 Debellatio (Bet Now: $15.00). Ran at the trip two back when good behind Touch Of Silver before stepping back to 1400m when back and making ground late behind The Velvet King. Like him back up in trip and his efforts on wet ground are better than what the form guide says so I give him a decent outside winning hope.
Race 5. (16:49) Pink Ladies Luncheon July 6 Handicap (1MW) 1000m
Very interesting runner here is 7 Battle Storm (Bet Now: $2.10), an Adam Durrant trained gelding that resumes. Started his career in the early part of the Spring, both runs coming over this track/distance and each time he produced a brilliant finale to get the win. Looks a rather exciting prospect but intriguing he resumes without a trial, so market will be the guide, but if he’s right, he should be winning.
10 Vital Blast (Bet Now: $8.00) is a handy gelding for Justine Erkelens resuming. This bloke had four runs last time in and won a couple of races, including first up in a race which has produced four winners, which does read well for this. Does go well fresh and despite no barrier trials leading in, he has the runs on the board to be respected. Knockout chance to beat the fav.
14 Duck Duck Goose (Bet Now: $17.00) is a Dick Turpin mare resuming for Lindsey Smith. This girl hasn’t raced since March 27 at Ascot over 1200m when on speed throughout and trying hard but just faded out of the finish late behind Over There. Resumes without a trial but does sprint well fresh, saves her best for Belmont and has placed in her lone run at the track/distance. Wet track should be fine also.
Race 6. (17:25) Beaufine Stakes 1000m
Fast speed, wet track…looks a good set up for the Adam Durrant trained 6 Electric Light (Bet Now: $3.00), who is on the quick back up after racing over 1400m in the Belmont Sprint last start where she was outclassed but far from disgraced behind star mare Galaxy Star. Concede back to 1000m is a query, but the tempo will be very strong, she thrives on a wet track and Pike is back on.
1 Rock Magic (Bet Now: $4.80) is the class runner of the field and that will take him a long way towards victory. Ran in the Roma Cup three weeks ago where he tried hard but just lacked the turn of foot to go with them when fifth to Vital Silver, and that form was clearly ticked off in the Belmont Sprint last week. Back to 1000m looks ideal and despite the impost, will take some beating.
3 Rebel King (Bet Now: $5.00) a definite threat for me. Talented sprinter that is first up and looks set to run a beauty here fresh. Hasn’t raced since March 17 when contesting the Mungrup Sprint at Mount Barker when midfield behind the then in form Reykjavik. Been given a good break and thought he was pretty sharp in his trial win at Lark Hill last week. Looks ready to rock and roll first up.
Race 7. (17:55) Amelia Park Handicap (64+) 2000m
With a wet track in mind, going the way of 13 Lavistarr (Bet Now: $5.00), just. This Viscount filly for Adam Durrant has done a really god job this time in, but in saying that has let punters down at her past two. Just missed out two back when beaten a lip by Eye Art before last start at Pinjarra again where she was held up before eventually getting clear and charging late to just miss. Wet track no issue, hard fit and in form.
Enormous respect to the in form mare 4 Eye Art (Bet Now: $4.60). Was on her when she raced here two weeks ago and under a sweet steer from Pike, she was much too good for her rivals and continued her purple patch. The reason why I’m not with her is that her run on wet ground two back was average and off that, she would seem a much better horse on top of the ground. Wouldn’t want it too wet IMO.
One horse who will love rain hitting the track is the Michael Lane trained 1 Beg To Differ (Bet Now: $14.00) given he’s a three time winner on wet ground and has placed in the other three starts. Brilliant steer from Brodie Kirby got him home two back at Ascot before racing here a fortnight ago where not much went right for him early in the straight but at the same time, he had his chance. Wet track brings him right into the mix.
Race 8. (18:25) Kirin Megumi Handicap (76+) 1300m
Looks a really good race for the handy three year old, 6 The Velvet King (Bet Now: $2.50). Just found Special Reward a touch too strong first up before racing over 1400m here a fortnight ago where he dominated proceedings from the front and gave nothing else a look in. 2/2 on wet ground, both wins being at this track, and he does have a bit of class on most of these.
10 Diablerie (Bet Now: $14.00) is knocking on the door to win a race and I think he gets a great chance here. Ran over 1400m here two weeks ago where he was back, wide with cover, and finished off strongly late to run second to The Velvet King. Been a decent run of outs for this gelding but is working up another win I suspect and the bit of give in the track certainly won’t hurt his chances.
5 Great Again (Bet Now: $12.00) is a son of Viscount for Lindsey Smith that resumes. This bloke hasn’t raced since March 30 at Ascot where he was first up and rather plain behind River Dance and was tipped out soon after. Been given a good break and though pushed out, didn’t mind the way he went in a recent Lark Hill trial. If he brings his best, clearly in the mix.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 6 The Velvet King
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Kelvin
LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 7 Forgotten Star
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 7
Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 13
Leg Four: 6
$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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