The two day Canberra Carnival concludes on Monday where it is Canberra Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Canberra Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Canberra Cup
Race 1. (13:10) Ncg Services (bm65) 1000m
This race just looks to set up perfectly for 3 Washington Towers (Bet Now: $2.25). Todd Smart trained gelding that was second up off a long break when racing in a Highway at Randwick last Saturday where he was back, wide with cover, and spotted those in front a decent start, but loved the way he attacked the line. Can sit closer in the run from the good draw and will take a power of beating.
4 Nobody’s Puppet (Bet Now: $3.80) is a speedy customer for Nick Olive that should be respected on her home track. Short course racing is her go in life and that was evident when winning over 900m at Queanbeyan last time out, and she was strong to the line. Likely sits outside Delacour and will look the winner at some stage.
1 Delacour (Bet Now: $5.00) finds a very winnable race to find some positive form once again. Since her first up win at Wagga, she hasn’t done a great deal, but a combination of wide gates and hard races has been the reasoning for that dip in form. Should hold the front from the gate and give a bold sight.
Race 2. (13:50) North Canberra Bears (bm75) 1600m
Going with 7 Propose To Me (Bet Now: $4.50). Matty Dale trained mare that contested a Country Championship Qualifier at Goulburn and she just got too far back in the run. Never a winning threat from where she was but was good late behind Art Cadeau. Off that, 1600m here should be fine and gets Collett steering.
4 Exotic Deel (Bet Now: $2.25) looks hard to beat for Nick Olive. Resumed with a close up third under the lights at Canterbury before going to the Art Cadeau race mentioned above. She seemed to have her chance but didn’t finish it off and was disappointing. Like her up to the mile and can bounce back in a big way.
Back up to the mile should suit 9 Loafing (Bet Now: $14.00). Impressive winner two back at this track/distance before going to a Highway at Rosehill over 1500m and just found them a bit sharp. This looks more his go and does get McDougall to steer from a good draw, so an improved showing is on the cards.
Race 3. (14:30) Turfcare Australia Mdn Hcp 1400m
If the last start hasn’t busted him, 1 Phearson (Bet Now: $2.10) will look the winner. He was absolutely enormous over 1300m here last time, sitting four wide no cover chasing a very strong speed and was still hitting the line when second. It was a massive effort. Hopefully he hasn’t taken too much harm from the effort.
6 Zouflu (Bet Now: $3.90) is a Maher/Eustace trained gelding that ran third in the race mentioned above that Phearson ran second in. Nass rode that afternoon and to my eye, he had his chance to win but couldn’t quite get there. Was a few weeks between runs though so perhaps improvement is on the cards.
A rise to 1400m should suit 10 The Deepest Secret (Bet Now: $10.00). Was 1300m to 1200m last time out at Wagga where she was chasing from the outset but kept finding the line and was pretty good in defeat I thought behind Fourmadec, who was heavily backed and looks talented. Does no work from the gate and should be strong at the end.
Race 4. (15:05) Senpos Hcp (c2) 1200m
4 Hasty Duchess (Bet Now: $1.75) just needs luck from the wide draw and she’ll win like a $1.50 pop. Trials aren’t everything, but gee it’s been hard to ignore the way she has moved in both trials to get ready for her return. Been trucking and under a hold, seemingly with plenty under the hood. Wide gate is the only thing stopping her being $1.50.
1 Blazing Mac (Bet Now: $4.00) can bounce back. Joe Pride trained mare that resumed over 1000m at Goulburn where she was in a tricky spot from a wide gate but seemed to get a decent enough run and thought she had her chance. Market wanted to be with her, which was encouraging, so think she deserves another look.
8 Embeller (Bet Now: $9.50) is an interesting runner. This mare for John Thompson resumed in a 900m scamper at Newcastle where she was caught wide throughout and battled late behind impressive winner Miss Bosetti. Does no work from the gate this time around and keen to see how she goes at 1200m.
Race 5. (15:45) Tab Lickety Split Mdn 1000m
I tried to find something to beat 3 Formeinaway (Bet Now: $1.60), and I just can’t. Debuted over 900m at Newcastle where he tracked the speed before edging wider and hitting the front, only to be run down late by Ballistic Moon. Gets a lovely run from the inside gate and firmer footing I think will suit him better.
I have a big watch on 8 Asserting (Bet Now: $14.00) for Bjorn Baker. Was hard in the market on debut at Goulburn but was gone on the turn and dropped out to finish tailed off last. Pulled up with Cardiac Arrhythmia and these types, it goes two ways. Either they recover and win or continue to be no good. Market will be the guide.
5 Mr Plucka (Bet Now: $15.00) is an interesting runner. Lauri Parker trained son of Pluck on debut off the back of a couple of trials. Latest trial was over 1100m at Canterbury and was given a good hitout when second. He’s had a good grounding for what should be a fast run 1000m so he’s not the worst.
Race 6. (16:25) Canberra Guineas 1400m
2 Equation (Bet Now: $2.00) is short enough, but he’s progressive, heading in the right direction and should eat up 1400m. 2/2 since being with Annabel Neasham, winning first up at Gosford before giving them a spanking over 1250m at Canterbury. He’ll love the rise in trip, draws soft, upside…just points to him winning.
Staying at 1400m is the only knock with 3 High Supremacy (Bet Now: $5.50). Resumed at the trip in the Hobartville and while he was never a winning threat, liked the way he found the line late in the piece behind Aegon and his late splits were solid. If this was a mile, could have him on top. Just staying at 1400m I’m not sure.
13 Sweet Reply (Bet Now: $12.00) is a big price here. She just lost sight of the compass in the Light Fingers and was never a factor behind all the way winner Every Rose in a race where the form didn’t exactly hold up in the Surround, so that’s a little query but like her up in trip on firmer footing and Blinkers on as well.
Race 7. (17:10) Canberra Cup 2000m
3 Entente (Bet Now: $2.90) looks to have returned in good order for the WaterBott camp. Resumed in the Canberra Mile when back off the speed but kept chasing and was very good late I thought when second to Outback Diva. Gets to a suitable trip second up and if he leads without pressure, he takes running down.
It’s contender or pretender time for 7 Dadoozdart (Bet Now: $5.00). If he’s going to make a name for himself as a decent race horse, has to be going close to putting this field. Was disappointed in him two back at Flemington. Backed up a week later at Rosehill and he was okay, more so fair, behind Sacramento. Best sees him win. Just hasn’t shown it enough to back with confidence.
9 Aussie Nugget (Bet Now: $6.00) commands respect for the Freedman camp. This bloke comes through the Mornington Cup Prelude at Caulfield where he was pretty solid in defeat despite having every chance behind Defibrillate. He was several weeks between runs then and that was his first run at the trip for the prep so he should be better for the outing.
Race 8. (17:50) Opc It Hcp (c1) 1400m
Last race of the Carnival, suspect there will be a wave of support for local filly 7 Fourmadec (Bet Now: $2.30). She was the street corner tip on debut at Wagga and was backed heavily throughout the day. Looked in trouble early on in the straight but Kissick managed to get clear and she surged hard late for a big win. Eats up 1400m, Tommy on, ran time on debut…just all points to her.
1 Impressive Lass (Bet Now: $3.00) looks to have her share of talent for Clare Cunningham. Was teasing to break her maiden tag and it finally came at Wong last time out. Sat wide no cover for the trip but she was much too good for what looks like an average lot, so needs to improve, but has hard race fitness/experience.
9 Rond De Jambe (Bet Now: $23.00) might need one more but for exotics, I could certainly entertain her. Resumed over 1300m here in what was a real sit/sprint, so given she’s a stayer, she had no hope, but she was a definite pass mark I thought behind Underground Music. She’ll get back and work home.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 7 Fourmadec
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Equation
LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 7 Propose To Me
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3
Leg Two: 2
Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 9
Leg Four: 7
$50 Investment = 1250% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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