8/12/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill

Nine races will be run and won at Rosehill this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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3 Kiamichi…(Bet Now: $4.50) I’m not sold on her. Visually, she was a very tough debut winner here over 1100m four weeks ago, narrowly beating the well performed Sebrakate. The depth there though I’m not sure about and the subsequent trial was just fair, so there are a few question marks, but the stable is really firing with their youngsters and should be respected on that fact.

2 Memphis Rock (Bet Now: $5.00) is a well bred colt who is three weeks between runs since contesting the Merson Cooper at Sandown where he didn’t stop chasing and was game in defeat behind Steal My Kisses, who looks above average. Has the hard race fitness under the belt, and overall, I don’t think this is a strong juvenile contest.

5 Creator (Bet Now: $3.50) is the interesting runner. Redoute’s Choice colt having his first start for the Snowden camp. Has had two trials in readiness for his debut and each time has been decent. Closed off well in the first trial behind stablemate Jonah before going to Canterbury where like the first trial, he was niggled but responded and was good late behind Eleven Eleven, who ran well at Doomben. Interesting to see what the market does.

6 Zalatte (Bet Now: $3.30) for me. Chris Waller trains this filly, who was well supported when debuting on the Kensington track at Randwick and under hard riding from Avdulla, she lifted late and proved too for the more fancied stablemate. Time she ran was sharp relative to the day and she should be even better up in trip on a bigger track.

2 Baller (Bet Now: $2.70) is a Team Cummings trained colt who could well be heading to the Magic Millions if he runs up to expectations here. He made a mess of them last start on the Kensington track at Randwick, sitting on speed before being clicked up by Tommy and in a couple of strides the race was all over. Looks a really nice type and should go close.

1 Ronstar (Bet Now: $8.00) looks the one at value. I think he’ll be suited up to 1400m and back in depth after bumping into a couple of handy ones to start the prep, firstly behind Roheryn before finishing down the track behind Chess Star. Should do no work from the inside gate and if he brought his best form here, a win certainly wouldn’t surprise.

2 Chewbacca (Bet Now: $2.70) looks the good thing on the program. Danny Williams has this horse as his best chance for the Country Championships and it’s hard to argue against given what he has done to date. He ran on Goulburn Cup Day last time where he looked an absolute moral and right up to that with a spank job of his rivals. Up to 1400m looks perfect, and he should be hard fit.

5 Only Choice (Bet Now: $21.00) is a Kurt Goldman trained gelding who was confidently supported when resuming during the Snake Gully Carnival at Gundagai but couldn’t get the job done when fourth to Bank Of Erin, but did clock some okay late splits. Has run well at a decent level in the past and he has a really good second up record.

7 Bridyn May (Bet Now: $16.00) is a daughter of Snitzel for the Danny Williams stable who bumped into a really good one two back in the shape of Noble Boy before racing on Goulburn Cup Day where she was on speed, well supported and just lasted to win. More depth here, but she’s a mare in good form and I’m really respecting that Noble Boy form.

He’s a bit of a non winner, but this does look an ideal race for 3 Etymology (Bet Now: $3.40) to finally get a win on the board for the campaign. He has been racing well this time in but can’t quite crack it for the larger portion of the prizemoney. Ran over 1800m here two weeks ago and tried really hard when second to Sky Boy. Back up to 2000m, and slightly back in depth, he appeals big time.

8 Merovee…(Bet Now: $4.80) gee I couldn’t back him to win, but the market says he’s right in the game. He ran over 1800m here last time where he got well back off the pace but finished off with purpose though well beaten by Sky Boy. Up to 2000m looks idea, this isn’t a strong race and he’s right down in the weights. Can win, but could I back him? No.

5 Green Sweet (Bet Now: $13.00) should love the rise to 2000m. Formerly with Jean Dubois, he’s had a few runs now for Danny Williams and on a couple of occasions he has caught the eye, including last time in the Goulburn Cup when a closing fourth to Interlocuter. Is a winner at 2000m and he certainly won’t mind a firm surface at the trip.

Maybe one more run away, but just have to take the gamble with 5 Smartedge (Bet Now: $4.80). I thought his run here first up two weeks ago behind Cradle Mountain was outstanding. Produced really good splits between the 800-200 but the final furlong his condition just gave way. Usually comes into his own later on in the prep but just can’t ignore him.

3 New Universe (Bet Now: $9.00) isn’t far off a win. He’s a perennial tease for Chris Waller but his run behind Cradle Mountain wasn’t too bad. He got too far back in a leader dominated affair but stuck to the task well in defeat. Record at this track/distance is very good and he does seem most effective on a rock hard track, which is what he’ll get.

If the track is playing towards those on speed, then 2 Irithea (Bet Now: $5.00) comes into play. Bjorn Baker trains this mare, who was unwanted in betting when resuming over 1200m here a fortnight ago but she did a super job on speed and was only bloused late by the turn of foot produced by Demerara. Tends to save her best for 1400m and if the track has a hint of bias towards the leaders, she’ll be a tough mare to get past.

I’ll take a chance on the Jason Coyle trained 9 So Magic (Bet Now: $23.00). She is absolutely flying at the moment and deserves a crack in town. Loved the way she has knuckled down to win her past couple, the first of which came at Kembla on Cup Day before going to Hawkesbury where she ran some outstanding late splits to win there over 1300m. Racing as if the 1400m will be fine and the form around reads very well.

4 Nicci’s Gold (Bet Now: $9.00) will be the pin up horse for most in this race. She resumed over 1200m here three weeks ago and was one of the runs of the day I think when closing off from off the pace to run second to a potential blacktype mare in Seasons. Three of her four career wins have come second up, the extra 200m yes, dry track yes…plenty to like.

1 Hussterical (Bet Now: $5.00) looks to lead these for fun and if the track is playing towards those on speed, she comes right into play. Comes through the Seasons race from three weeks ago where she led and ran along a touch with pressure applied which set the race up perfectly for that quality mare to bounce. Up to 1400m, she can dominate from the front and prove hard to beat.

9 Slow Burn (Bet Now: $9.50) for me at the odds. Double figures was the opening price and I took a slice because I think she’ll start shorter. It was a car crash if you were on her first up here two weeks. The run was inconclusive because she was held up for the entire straight and didn’t get a chance to let down. That should eventuate this time around with clear air and a good speed.

I think Jason Deamer has figured out 4 Bon Amis (Bet Now: $5.00) in that the gelding is a sprinter and that he does his best racing on the fresh side. Resumed at the track/distance four weeks ago in what was a much easier race than this but he won with class/authority, and the time wasn’t too bad. Creeping up in grade/depth, but has run well at this level in the past.

I think whatever 1 Albumin (Bet Now: $6.00) does here, he will improve on, but he’s got the class/quality to be around the mark. The gelding operation has really made this horse, as we saw in the Winter where he strung together three sharp wins here, two at the trip. Thought he closed off well in a trial here a few weeks ago. Likely gives away a start but will be strong at the end.

Clearly siding with 4 Asterius (Bet Now: $6.00). Was thinking maybe one more run but I just keep coming back to the resumption here a three weeks back behind Sweet Deal and it was too good to ignore. Some of the best late splits of the day despite getting held up the last little bit. Clear air this time, I’m keen on him against this bunch.

11 Nai’a (Bet Now: $5.50) is a James Cummings trained mare who might well be starting to put it all together. She was a notable drifter in betting when racing over the 1550m at Randwick last time but despite the market saying she wasn’t ready, she put them away and won with such arrogance. Takes on the boys now, but hard not to be impressed by last start.

7 Island Missile (Bet Now: $6.50) could be a closer at the end. He resumed in the Kool Vinnie race from two weeks ago where he got a fair way back off the speed and never really looked likely but was sound late when fourth. Might need one more run, and has a bad gate, but there is quality about him and a strong tempo would help his cause.

7 Arancini (Bet Now: $7.50) for me. This horse was backed as if unbeatable when resuming under the lights at Canterbury and in the run, it was no betting. He was the winner. I reckon condition just gave way late when third to Blue Tycoon. Saves his best for second up and did score a huge win second up last prep in a race which has produced seven winners.

12 Moet Rose (Bet Now: $3.80) looks an obvious threat. Arrives from Victoria for Team Hawkes and we know how good the stable is at the state switch for success. This girl ran over 1400m at Sandown last time where she was off the speed and didn’t stop chasing in a game effort behind Gold Fields, who has franked the form by winning the Wodonga Cup. That reads well for a 78 I would have thought.

13 Tiger By The Tale (Bet Now: $35.00) isn’t a horse I probably could back to beat these but perhaps for multiples I could include. He ran over 1200m here a fortnight ago and I thought his effort behind Kool Vinnie wasn’t too bad. Got held up a touch in the run and did make ground late when he had clear air. He’ll be strong at the end and could fill a first four spot.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 2 Chewbacca

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 9 Slow Burn

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 9 So Magic

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 4, 8, 9

Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 9

Leg Three: 4, 5, 6, 7, 11

Leg Four: 6, 7, 12, 13, 14

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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