Racing will return to Randwick on Saturday for Chelmsford Stakes day in which we see a quality day of racing including five Group races headlined by the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes and the Group 2 Furious Stakes.
The current track condition at Randwick racecourse is a Good 3 and there is no rain predicted over the next 24 hours so we will more than likely be racing on a similar condition come race time.
Race One: Tab.com.au (bm80) Form Guide
Back Me: Too Hi Tek wasn’t fully test last start when running in a good form race and should have finished closer. Has been racing well without putting a win on the board this preparation and Saturday he looks very well placed. Will settle back and over the 2000m distance will be hitting the line well late at big odds of $16.
Don’t Back Me: Marden has only won once at the distance from five starts and drops 400m from his last run. Will carry 59.5kg in the race and has never won at Randwick so ill be betting around him here.
Big Danger: Spurtonic has won his last two starts and he looks very well suited to make it a hat trick of wins on Saturday. He is likely to be sent out at a short quote and looks very hard to beat.
Roughie: Junoob will be having his first Australian start on Saturday and Chris Waller has a knack of being able to win first up with his international runners so i would be keeping him safe.
Race Two: Edgar Britt Oam (bm80) Form Guide
Back Me: The Gallows was much too strong at Hawkesbury last start when winning well. He will go forward on Saturday and there doesn’t look to be a lot of speed in this race so he should get an easy lead and be hard to run down at $5.
Don’t Back Me: Photon Willie won last start but he neearly threw away the race in the straight and he won’t be able to act like that in this field. Happy to leave him out at the weights in a tougher race.
Big Danger: Masahiko looks the main danger with a good record at the distance and he will be better on top of the ground despite winning on a slow track last start. Will sit handy and will take beating.
Roughie: Punch Your Weight drops back in class here and will be much better suited in this grade. Was disappointing last start but his two runs before that i thought were very good and the $19 on offer looks great value on Saturday.
Race Three: Concorde Stakes Form Guide
Back Me: Decision Time always races well fresh which he is on Saturday and over the distance he is yet to miss a placing from three starts. Has raced in some very good races and will go close on Saturday at very good odds of $12.
Don’t Back Me: Sessions will be sent out as the short priced favourite on Saturday and his record looks good over the distance although both were only narrow victories against easier fields. I think he will be vulnerable over 1000m on Saturday.
Big Danger: Hay List doesn’t need any introduction and if he has returned near his best he will win this easily. John Mcnair has been very patient with him and wont let him run if he isn’t a chance of winning so he has to be included despite the betting drift.
Roughie: Whittington was scratched at the barriers last start against his own age so i doubt he has been set for this race although at the weights and from barrier 6 he will take a lot of beating at double figure odds.
Race Four: Coolmore Furious Stakes Form Guide
Back Me: Romantic Moon has had two starts over the 1200m on good tracks for two goo wins. He has won his only start first up and will get a good run from barrier 2. Currently at very good odds of $11 and can be backed each way.
Don’t Back Me: Forever Loved has won her only start but at $7.50 i think she is terrible value her when you take into account the horse who finished behind her was beaten by a similar margin at Canterbury in maiden grade.
Big Danger: Guelph is the best galloper in the race although first up over 1200m is a little concern seeings she is yet to place at the distance despite those runs being in tougher races. Will start under the odds which is why she isn’t on top but her quality will carry her a long way in the race.
Roughie: Twilight Royale’s run last start i thought had a lot of merit to it and i think she will be much better second up on Saturday. She is currently a $19 chance which i think is massive value.
Race Five: Jockeys Trust Ming Dynasty Form Guide
Back Me: Vilanova was a little disappointing last start although i dont think the slow speed and small field helped her cause. She will be able to settle further back on Saturday and the race should have good speed in it allowing her to race in her natural pattern. Currently a $7.50 chance and looks very good value.
Don’t Back Me: Aussies Love Sport won by a good margin last start although it wasn’t the best of races for a Saturday meeting. His two starts before that he was beaten in mid week company so at $4.20 i wouldn’t be backing him here.
Big Danger: Champagne Cath was super impressive on debut but her two runs this preparation have been very disappointing. If she returns to her best she will go very close and must be included at $8.50.
Roughie: Dowdstown Charlie has been very good in his last two starts and this looks to be an easier race than both of them. Will go back in the run and will be hitting the line well late at $15.
Race Six: Tatt’s Club Tramway Stakes Form Guide
Back Me: Shoot Out looks very well placed here and despite having to carry the top weight he will ge a very easy run from barrier 1 and with some luck in the straight he will take a lot of beating. The $6.50 on offer looks very good value for such a consistent galloper who has won over $3million in prize money.
Don’t Back Me: Royal Descent will have to overcome the wide barrier and is poorly weighted against a field like this with her having to carry 58kg. She has found a very good Group 3 field and in open class against the males she will struggle which means the $6 on offer is terrible value.
Big Danger: Sacred Falls was the only horse to beat Pierro last preparation and we will be very hard to beat on Saturday. He has a good first up record and has won his only two starts at the distance and his only start at the track he won. Has proved he isn’t just a wet tracker and will take a lot of beating.
Roughie: Sizzling’s run last start i thought had a lot of merit and he will be much better over the 1400m on Saturday. He isn’t that well weighted but i still think he will be right in the finish at big odds of $15.
Race Seven: Chelmsford Stakes Form Guide
Back Me: Veyron was huge first up winning the Warwick Stakes at good odds. He will appreciate the increase in distance and he races well second up and from barrier 3 he will get an easy run in transit and be hard to beat again. Take the $3.70 now before he gets backed late.
Don’t Back Me: Bayrir was good at his only Australian start although the quality of that race compared to this race is a massive step up. He is weighted the same from that run and in a field like this i wouldn’t be taking the $4.40 being bet for him.
Big Danger: Hawkspur had a very good winter campaign and he showed he was back at his best last start over an unsuitable trip were he hit the line well. He will get a good run from the barrier 2 and he will re assert himself as a major Spring contender today.
Roughie: Kelinni wont be suited over the trip and will be looking for further although he has a good second up record and loves Randwick racecourse so at $34 ill be including him in my multiples and i think he could surprise with a win on Saturday.
Race Eight: Australian Turf Club (bm85) Form Guide
Back Me: Never Can Tell gets very well weighted on Sunday with just 53kg on her back. Ran well first up last start and will take a lot from that outing and from barrier 6 she will get a good run throughout and it looks a very winnable race for her, i doubt the $9 on offer will last.
Don’t Back Me: Ashokan is yet to win first up from three tries and has only won once from six tries over the distance. Will have to overcome barrier 12 and without ever winning on a good track im happy to risk her on Saturday.
Big Danger: Sharnee Rose gets in the weights well with the 3kg claim meaning she will only carry 56kg. She races well fresh and will take a lot of beating in this class so the $9 on offer looks good value.
Roughie: Destruction will likely lead the field here and with the light weight on his back he will give a good kick and could cause a boil over at $51.
Best Bet: Vilanova
Next Best: Shoot Out
Best Roughie: Decision Time
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