Saturday racing makes a rare appearance at Warwick Farm this weekend for a nine race program and as you’d expect, the local trainers are well represented. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:40) : Happy 2017 Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Single Bullet (Bet Now: $1.45)is on the brink of gaining a start in the Magic Millions next week, but he needs to win here, and I think he will. His debut effort in the Wyong Magic Millions was very good when a narrow second to the above average filly Madeenaty. He got back to last in the run and despite wobbling around the turn, he finished off with real purpose. Trained on the track and the extra 100m…just looks the one.
Big Danger: 4 Radiant Choice (Bet Now: $3.50)is a Team Hawkes trained colt that also comes through the Wyong Magic Millions where he too was on debut and did a pretty good job in defeat, running fourth. He showed really good early toe to carve over from the wide gate, then sit outside Madeenaty, and that filly was just too nippy. He has the run under the belt and should take some beating here.
Long Shot: 3 Colesberg (Bet Now: $15.00) is a nice looking gelding that debuts here for the David Payne stable. He has been in work a couple of times but is yet to race until now, but did look to trial up well on December 20 at Rosehill when running a narrow second. He will develop into a nice three year old I suspect, but he is bred to handle a wet track and Shinn steers.
Race Two (13:20) : TAB Rewards Handicap (70) 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Redouble (Bet Now: $3.70)is a talented three year old colt for Team Hawkes that resumed on a bog track at Canterbury where he didn’t quite appear to handle the track but stuck on quite well behind Raiment. Had some really good form from his first prep and the fresh effort indicates he is in for a good Summer campaign.
Big Danger: 7 Arbeitsam (Bet Now: $6.00) got the job done narrowly but impressively when resuming at Wyong before placing in town at his next two starts, firstly behind the above average filly Zumbelina and then at Canterbury behind Cannot Be Serios. That last start was 1550m on a heavy track so back to 1400m should suit and he looks as if he will get a very soft lead, and at the Warwick Farm 1400m, that is such a huge advantage.
Long Shot: 4 Cellarman (Bet Now: $8.00) was touted as a horse who could develop into a Caulfield Guineas/Derby type after a promising Winter prep, but he just couldn’t reproduce it in the Spring and for the most part was quite disappointing. Resumes here off a nice easy trial last week at Rosehill and first up at 1400m does give an indication that he might be forward enough to sprint well fresh.
Race Three (13:55) : ATC Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Harlem Lady (Bet Now: $2.70) looks close to one of the better bets on the program. Just looked in need of the run fresh behind Dee Nine Elle before being much better next start when closing in strongly late when a narrow second to Bonny O’Reilly. Got a really good record third up, stable is just starting to find some form and this is such a winnable race. Keen.
Big Danger: 3 Magicaz (Bet Now: $4.80) showed an electric turn of foot to bolt up here fresh over 1000m before going to Randwick on Boxing Day where she settled back and wide but came with a strong run to run second to in form mare Waitandwatch. Unbeaten at Warwick Farm, unbeaten at 1400m, fit, ready…ticks alot of boxes for me and is the key threat.
Long Shot: 5 Lycia (Bet Now: $4.80) had late market support when racing on Boxing Day at Randwick where she sat around midfield in the run and stuck to the task okay without threatening behind the above average Invincible Knight. Back to her own sex now and she did score a sharp win in her lone start at this track/distance.
Race Four (14:30) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Chosen Prayer (Bet Now: $2.70) is a talented mare with really good city form behind her, so she goes clearly on top for me. She ran over this track/distance last Wednesday where she chased the speed before getting the splits late and bursting through but was nabbed in the last hop by Modha. Horses with genuine city form more often than not win these Highway races, so she’s the one I want to be with.
Big Danger: 1 Yasnat (Bet Now: $3.90) is a talented mare that resumes for the Matty Dale yard. She was a real find during the Winter, winning three on the bounce, including a win at Moonee Valley, before failing at Caulfield. I am sure she would have had a jump out or two at Canberra, and if she is anywhere near right, she’ll give this a shake.
Long Shot: 12 Lady Ioness (Bet Now: $12.00) is a smart looking filly that resumes here for the Todd Howlett yard. She made her debut at Tamworth on a bog track in August and let down strongly from the back to score a narrow but decisive win. She has been tuned up for her return to racing with a couple of nice trials behind proven city performers. That should hold her in good stead for this.
Race Five (15:05) : Schweppes Handicap (92) 1400m:
Back Me: 4 Imposing Lass (Bet Now: $2.40) resumed over 1200m at Randwick on Villiers Day and she just got a mile out of her ground but worked home strongly late to run sixth to Kinsachi, beaten three lengths. That mare came out and won at Stakes level last week, so that form reads well, Imposing Lass does run well second up and 1400/firm track is a nice recipe.
Big Danger: 5 Girl Sunday (Bet Now: $1.95) strung together three on the bounce to kick off the prep before racing over 1350m at Rosehill a fortnight back where she had a nice sit just near the speed and fought on quite well but just couldn’t quite finish it off and ran a close up third to Bonny O’Reilly. Gets really good map favours here and leaders are very hard to beat at the 1400m start here.
Long Shot: 3 Gold Symphony (Bet Now: $6.50) was a Stakes winner as an early three year old who really hasn’t gone on with it since but I’m willing to give him a chance here. Trialled well to my eye before resuming at Rosehill where he had three wide cover and boxed on well behind stablemate Suspense. Suited up to 1400m, fitter…hard to trust, but a winnable race here.
Race Six (15:40) : Tab.com.au Mile (81) 1600m:
Back Me: 9 Kingsguard (Bet Now: $2.25) is a gelding in super form at the moment for Team Hawkes. He toughed it out strongly to break the maiden two back at Canterbury in what has turned out to be a strong form race before coming to this track/distance where he was ridden a treat by Tommy Berry and duly saluted, beating home Burning Energy, who won last week, so he ticks all the boxes for me and is clearly the one to beat.
Big Danger: 8 Rock Mylady (Bet Now: $3.80) resumed in that messy Rosehill race won by Isorich in a race where it has stood up form wise. She then ran over 1350m at Rosehill a fortnight back and closed off with real purpose when a close up fourth to Louie Sea Kay. Third up at the mile looks perfect and she does tend to save her best for Warwick Farm.
Long Shot: 7 Cauthen’s Power (Bet Now: $6.50) was a big flop when resuming and finishing last behind Burning Passion. Looked sharp at the trials afterwards before racing in that Redoutable Heart race here three weeks ago where he got back in the ruck after receiving a nice, soft run in transit and again there was just no finish from him and he whacked away. He has shown a fair bit of talent in previous preps but this is D-Day for him IMO off the back of a nice trial last week. Last chance.
Race Seven (16:20) : Summer Sprint 1000m:
Back Me: 5 Dal Cielo (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Group l performer who kind of lost his way in the latter stages of his three year old season. Was sent to Kris Lees and he looked to trial really well prior to resuming in the Skellatar at Muswellbrook where he was pretty much run off his legs early, but you had to like his last 150m where he got the gap and savaged the peg to run second to Our Renaissance. He has class on his side and provided he doesn’t get too far back here, he’s right in the game.
Big Danger: 2 Mr Manhattan (Bet Now: $3.00)is a track specialist that is trained here and looks ready to rumble. Fought on strongly to win his first two runs this time in before going to the Starlight where he got back in the run and finished off okay late behind stablemate Kuro. Trial here a couple of weeks back looked good to the eye, and you always have to add something extra to Warwick Farm horses when they race on their home track.
Long Shot: 7 Cosmic Cameo (Bet Now: $8.50) was unwanted in betting when racing over 1000m at Randwick on Boxing Day but despite his price, I thought he ran quite well when fourth to Top Striker after getting shuffled back on the home turn. He ran really sharp time when winning at this track/distance three back and on that effort, he is a threat here.
Race Eight (17:00) : #theraces Sprint (85) 1200m:
Back Me: 13 What Could Be (Bet Now: $5.00) produced the best 13th you will ever see last time out at Rosehill where he got badly chopped out when appearing to have plenty to offer. First up he toyed with them and there was confident market support at Rosehill. Gets right down in the weights after the claim, he handles wet ground and has a lethal turn of foot.
Big Danger: 3 Invinzabeel (Bet Now: $5.50) is a gelding who really turned the corner for Chris Waller in two runs during the Spring, both times recording sharp wins in strong races. He was touted to be a possible contender for Stakes races in Melbourne but was tipped out. Trial last week was good to the eye and he does have a very good fresh record.
Long Shot: 9 Alart (Bet Now: $16.00) is similar to Lady Jivago in the sense they are racing very well without winning. She ran over 1350m at Rosehill two weeks and was game in defeat I thought behind Bonny O’Reilly in a race where I think the form will well and truly hold up. She is finding it hard to win, but I think she gets a chance here.
Race Nine (17:40) : TAB Handicap (77) 1400m:
Back Me: 13 King Darci (Bet Now: $4.20) is a pretty consistent gelding that might not have the most imposing winning record but he is rarely far away from the action. His last two efforts have come at Rosehill where he has been far from disgraced in handy races behind Hogamany and Cabeza de Vaca. Bolted up at this track/distance three starts ago and looks well placed.
Big Danger: 10 Zaunkonig (Bet Now: $6.50) sat on speed and kicked hard to win fresh at Beaumont-Newcastle before going to Randwick over 1400m where he sat off a genuine tempo and chased hard all the way but was no match for the front pair and settled for third. Looks to have come back in really good order and being third up now, he should be ready fitness wise.
Long Shot: 17 Sudden Blitz (Bet Now: $16.00) took on a very plain field over 1400m at Kembla Grange last time out and he was expected to spank them. He did that emphatically and won very impressively despite racing quite greenly in the straight. He can be hard to trust, and he has been nommed/accepted/scratched since, but I am prepared to take the chance with him.
BEST BET: Race Three Number 1 Harlem Lady
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 9 Kingsguard
VALUE: Race Seven Number 5 Dal Cielo
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 8, 9
Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7
Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 13
Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 10, 13, 17
$50 Investment= 11.90% of the dividend if successful
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