The Magic Millions Carnival at the Gold Coast kicks off this Saturday with a bumper eight race card, filled with huge field sizes. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (13:27) : First National Broadbeach Handicap 1800m:
Back Me: Not really a race I’m keen on but I’ll lean with 1 Hostwin Vintage (Bet Now: $3.70). This Gary Moore trained stayer ran over 2200m at Beaumont-Newcastle last time out on Boxing Day where he ran along in front and to his credit he gave a really good kick but was nabbed near the peg by the heavily backed The Getaway, who franked the form by winning last Saturday at Gosford. He’s hard fit, back to 1800m suits, maps well, hard to beat.
Big Danger: 3 Good Luck Malela (Bet Now: $4.40) had market support at odds when racing over the mile at Doomben a fortnight back and the support was somewhat justified as he got back in the run and was one of only a couple to make significant ground to run fourth to Volpino. Looks ideally suited up to 1800m and is on his home track.
Long Shot: 2 Bold Heart (Bet Now: $7.50) is another that should be suited by the distance increase after racing over 1400m on his home track at the Sunny Coast a tick under three weeks back where he chased hard from off the speed to run a close up second to Treasure Gallery. Ran well at the mile last prep so I think the 1800m will be okay.
Race Two (14:02) : First National Real Estate Gold Coast Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 1 Houtzen (Bet Now: $1.30) just picks herself here. Trialled like a star prior to debuting at Doomben two weeks back where she showed super early toe to lead and from there, it was pretty painless and she ended up bolting in. Not sure if she can win the Magic Millions given she will run here due to the fact she is a borderline starter, but she should take care of this lot.
Big Danger: 9 Umawinner (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Real Saga filly that debuts for the Vandyke yard. She comes here off the back of two barrier trials, the latest coming at the Sunshine Coast a couple of weeks back when bolting up by four lengths and running sizzling time. Tough race to debut in, but she looks above average.
Long Shot: 5 Never In Doubt (Bet Now: $23.00) was kept quite safe in the market when debuting at Doomben in October and he did make up some ground without threatening the winner Ours To Keep, who has turned out to be one of the better juveniles Queensland has produced this season. If the track remains wet, this horse is bred to swim, plus he gets the services of Avdulla.
Race Three (14:37) : Smoke Alarm Solutions Handicap (75) 2200m:
Back Me: 7 Explosive One (Bet Now: $20.00) is a stayer with a little bit of promise for the low flying Matty Dunn yard. He ran on his home track at Murwillumbah last time out and stuck to the task really well I thought when running third to Push The Sky Away. Up to 2200m looks perfect, he has upside and is in the right stable.
Big Danger: 8 Game Pie (Bet Now: $9.50) has been a real enigma for some time but perhaps stepping up in trip will help his cause. He ran over the mile at Ipswich last Friday and was very one paced in the run but he did pick up late and was good through the line. Ability wise, he has lengths on these. Just needs to remind us again.
Long Shot: 9 Jimmy Hoffa (Bet Now: $17.00) is a tough one bat stayed who will go all day at the same speed, which is what he did over 2200m at Doomben last time out when starting bolteds odds and defying those to run fourth to Fuerza. Trained on the track and that is a definite advantage, especially when it comes to metro programs.
Race Four (15:12) : First National Real Estate Gold Coast Handicap 1800m:
Back Me: 7 Black Jet (Bet Now: $5.00) had teased in a couple of runs prior to racing over the Doomben mile a fortnight back where he hugged the rails after getting a long way back in the run and finished off strongly but was no match late for L’Entrecote, who had all the momentum out wide. 1800m on the bigger track looks ideal and to my eye looks one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: 4 Panno Rossa (Bet Now: $3.70) was one of the real staying finds of the Winter this way before being tipped out for a break. Resumed over 1500m at Eagle Farm in a Quality and rattled home late behind Friendly Dragon before going to that L’Entrecote race where he just gave away too much of a head start and perhaps was just a touch flat after a ripping fresh effort. Ready to bounce back hard third up.
Long Shot: 10 Halls Creek (Bet Now: $19.00) has a horrible winning record and is an absolute nightmare to trust, but I am going to go with him at a price here. He ran over 1400m here a fortnight back and was very good in defeat behind city winner Social Vampire given that horse walked them in front and gave nothing a chance, with Halls Creek running sub 34 for his final 600m. He is is hard to trust, but he is down in the weights and Hellyer is riding the Gold Coast very well at the moment.
Race Five (15:50) : First National Palm Beach Plate (Class 3) 900m:
Back Me: 1 Duty Dude (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Sydney gelding trained by Gerald Ryan who looks well placed here. He was ordinary fresh at Warwick Farm before liking the drop in depth at Kembla Grange where he was given a 12/10 from Travis Wolfgram and the four year old duly saluted. 900m here looks perfect and he has the class/quality.
Big Danger: 7 Winning Supreme (Bet Now: $6.50) is a speed demon for Gary Moore who comes here in really good form. Short course specialist who ran over 1100m at Hawkesbury last start where he chased hard all the way but had to settle for second to Waitandwatch, who franked the form by winning on Boxing Day at Randwick. Draws gate one and Luke Dittman does ride the Gold Coast very well. Ticks alot of boxes.
Long Shot: 6 This Is Australia (Bet Now: $6.50) is one of the more interesting runners for the program. Well bred gelding that was formerly racing in Sydney but is now under the care of Matty Dunn. He has got some really good form behind him and his trial last week at Murwillumbah looked very good to my eye. Big market watch.
Race Six (16:30) : Nerang RSL Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 14 Eckstein (Bet Now: $2.90) for me here. Talented filly for Kurt Goldman who is heading towards the Guineas next week but she can definitely take this out. Ran last time out in the Mode Plate where the race was pretty much gifted to her on speed given she had no pressure and was allowed to dictate. Won’t get it as easy here, but there is alot to like about her and Avdulla steers.
Big Danger: 6 Believe Yourself (Bet Now: $7.50) is a former Gerald Ryan juvenile/Singpore sprinter that returned to Australia to be trained by the Waterhouse/Bott yard. Was okay fresh at Ballarat before being a flop at Rosehill. Now with Toby Edmonds and back to 1200m on the new home track, plus the trainer has a fab record with tried horses. Big market watch.
Long Shot: 2 Architect (Bet Now: $15.00) was kept quite safe in the market when resuming in the Bribie but he had no chance in the run given he was back near last throughout and forced widest on the turn on a day where it was a big advantage to be near the rail and on speed. He has some good stats on this track and if they go hard in front, this is the horse you want to be on.
Race Seven (17:10) : First National Gold Coast Origin Jockey Series Handicap (75) 1200m:
Back Me: I was quite keen on 19 Always Sacred (Bet Now: $6.50) when he resumed at Doomben a fortnight back and he looked to travel really well in the run just off the speed before Angland eased him to the outside and he let down strongly for about 150m but his condition gave out late and perhaps the bias didn’t help. Trained on the track and has a fab record here.
Big Danger: 13 Ringo’s A Rockstar (Bet Now: $3.70) was heavily backed when resuming at Doomben a fortnight ago a over 1050m in the same race mentioned above where he was caught wide no cover on speed and on a day where leaders and near the rail were near impossible to get past, that pretty much sealed his fate. Just needs better luck here to bounce back.
Long Shot: 20 Nakanai (Bet Now: $51.00) is getting on in years but has to be respected on his home track. He ran at Eagle Farm last Wednesday where he was a drifter in the market and ran accordingly when finishing down the track behind Our Lady Mac. The run prior here behind Heartford was a beauty and on that, he is one to include in exotics here.
Race Eight (17:48) : Sky Racing Origin Jockey Series Plate (Class 6) 1400m:
Back Me: 18 Princess Charm (Bet Now: $12.00) comes back to the 1400m after running over 1600m at the Sunny Coast last time out where I thought she was pretty game in defeat behind Sweet Shamrock given that horse dominated proceedings from the front end and kicked strongly when challenged. This mare will be strong late, stable in form and she is a winner at the track.
Big Danger: 15 Volpino (Bet Now: $7.00) looks ready to tackle the older horses here after running over the Doomben mile last start and was ridden an absolute treat by Browne to get the job done, and he did it quite impressively, plus he was strong on the line, so the drop back to 140m shouldn’t be an issue, and McMahon did ride this horse impressively at this track when resuming.
Long Shot: 10 Open Book (Bet Now: $6.00) is such an interesting runner here. Former Joe Pride galloper that is now with Toby Edmonds after a couple of below par efforts to start the prep in Sydney. On his best form, he’d spank these and then some, but new stable, new surroundings, patchy form…market will be the guide.
BEST BET: Race Two Number 1 Houtzen
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 7 Explosive One
VALUE: Race Eight Number 18 Princess Charm
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 7, 11, 15
Leg Two: 2, 6, 11, 13, 14, 18
Leg Three: 3, 8, 9, 13, 16, 19, 20
Leg Four: 4, 7, 8, 10, 15, 17, 18
$50 Investment= 2.12% of the dividend if successful
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