As is the case every Melbourne Cup Day, Randwick will host the Sydney program, with nine races to be run and won. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:00) Task Retail Plate 1800m
8 All Too Soon (Bet Now: $2.45) looks a good bet to start the day. David Payne trained filly who ran over 1400m here a couple of Saturdays back and worked home very strongly against the tempo when third to Warranty. Up to 1800m looks perfect, she has the form on the board and this is a significant drop in depth.
7 Zeppelin (Bet Now: $4.00) attempted to lead all the way over the 1550m at Canterbury on October 27 under Tim Clark and the gelding did give a good kick but was no match late for Destiny’s Own. Smashed the rest though which helps. 1800m is the query, but he maps super and Josh Parr is riding very well at the moment.
Expecting some improvement from 6 Undaunted (Bet Now: $16.00). This son of Snitzel was ridden far too aggressively last time out at Wyong and didn’t pull up 100% post race behind Flying Rose. Has since trialled to show he has recovered, which he has. Angland takes over, should roll forward and be thereabouts.
Race 2. (12:35) APN Outdoor Plate 1200m
I think 11 Oleksandra (Bet Now: $6.00) will get the job done. Beautifully bred filly who debuted over 1000m at Hawkesbury and just found the trip too short I thought but her effort late was very good to run second. She’ll up a solid Randwick 1200m, has the upside, stable low flying and she should do no work from the draw.
10 Epidemic (Bet Now: $2.800) was given an absolute slaughter by Schofield first up at Canterbury. Four wide no cover throughout in a field of six…hardly ideal. She did a great job to get as close as she did to Madonnica. Draws much better here and gets the 1.5kg off with the claim for gun apprentice Andrew Adkins.
12 Peretti (Bet Now: $16.00) is a daughter of Hussonet first up for the Tim Martin yard. This girl has only had one career outing, which came in early July at Canterbury when finishing midfield behind Tennessee Tango in a race which has produced three subsequent winners. Trialled up well a couple of weeks back at Hawkesbury and stable should always be respected fresh.
Race 3. (13:10) Right2Drive Handicap 1400m
Pretty keen here on 1 Higher Ground (Bet Now: $2.80). He debuted over 1300m at the Warwick Farm midweeks and I loved his effort, especially over the final 150m. The well backed Cuba had the race done and dusted but he kept attacking the line and got really close. The Randwick 1400m at start two looks perfect for this colt.
5 So You Win (Bet Now: $7.00) is a So You Think trained gelding that debuted over 1300m at Kembla Grange and I liked the way he closed his race off late in the piece when third to Good Weather. Should take enormous benefit from that outing and I can see him loving the rise to 1400m, especially here at Randwick.
3 Mustafa (Bet Now: $8.00) was set a task on debut, contesting the Brian Crowley, and he did probably what was expected, finishing out the back, but in the parade he certainly more than held his own looks wise against some classy types. Clearly will appreciate the drop back to maiden grade and I can see him running a beauty.
Race 4. (13:45) McGrath Estate Agents Handicap (75) 2400m
He’s an enigma but I think 4 Wine Bush (Bet Now: $4.80) can get the job done here. Four year old for Chris Waller who can be a bit hit and miss at times but he’s put it together quite nicely in recent times. Was close up/mildly lame two back behind Thewayweare in a blanket finish before racing over the 2400m at Warwick Farm where he did a good job to run second to Ready For Success. Think he can turn the tables here.
3 Ready For Success (Bet Now: $4.80) did win that race mentioned above and I think you can put it down to a lovely front running ride from Innes Jr. Just controlled things to suit himself on speed, quickened at the right time, got them off the bit and from the home turn onwards, it was painless. Has to do it on the big track now.
11 Fencourt (Bet Now: $20.00) looks massive odds here for John Sargent. He was three weeks between runs when racing over 2350m in a Newcastle maiden. Penza gave him every possible hope and he hit the front for a few strides but his condition just gave way late. Should come right on from that, and at $21+, I could entertain him each way.
Race 5. (14:25) McGrath Estate Agents QLD Handicap (80) 1200m
4 Drachenfels (Bet Now: $3.40) looks the way to go here, but with hesitation. He’s the best horse in the race by a mile, but there is a few loose screws upstairs which gets him to switch off/turn it up most times. That was the case last Wednesday at Canterbury. Just took forever to get going but charged late to just miss. Randwick 1200m with a genuine tempo looks perfect.
6 Savvan (Bet Now: $3.50) is a month between runs since resuming over this track/distance where he was one of the runs of the day I thought, charging home from the back against the track pattern to run fifth to Chalk. Form out of that race looks very strong, and it’s been proven, plus he looked to trial well last Tuesday.
3 The Gavel (Bet Now: $21.00) is an interesting runner here. Ron Quinton trained stayer who might need the run but we have seen recently in Sydney that these stayers can pull out a decent run fresh, and as I said, this isn’t the strongest race going on. Trial was nothing pretty, but he’s trained on the track and a testing 1200m will suit.
Race 6. (15:40) McGrath Estate Agents VIC Handicap (76) 1300m
6 Kawaikini (Bet Now: $3.80) looks the main threat. Plenty to like about her win fresh at Nowra. She was chasing on the turn, under hard riding, but she kept finding under O’Hara and surged hard late to finish best. Randwick 1300m looks ideal second up from a break and she has the upside to come. Definite threat.
11 Star Sensation (Bet Now: $5.00) is a smart filly for the Mark Newnham team who resumed with a good third to Za Zi Ba before taking on a field of four under the lights at Canterbury and bolting up. If you go back to her Autumn form, gee it reads well with names like Frolic, She Will Reign, Serena Bay…reads very well for this.
1 Rosa Carolina (Bet Now: $7.50) could be the big improver here at odds. Smart mare for Tye Angland who will love the drop in depth. Ran at Canterbury last time out and didn’t get a great deal of luck in the straight when appearing to have plenty to offer behind Osborn Bulls. Should get a sweet run from the gate and a bit of give in the track is a big tick.
Race 7. (16:25) Schweppes Choisir Handicap 1100m
12 To Excess (Bet Now: $2.30) looks the only threat to him. Just had to do much work in the run last time out here over 1200m. Loomed large to win, hit the front but a had 1200m saw him out and he was bloused late. Back to 1100m and only 50kg on his back, I can see why he will be popular. Just think there is more upside with the top tip.
Look out for a bold fresh showing from 2 Big Money (Bet Now: $5.50). He is eight years of age but I think he is absolutely flying at the moment. First up, but he does go well fresh and his two trials in preparation have been outstanding, both in fast time. To my eye, he’s wound up to win and the claim for McDougall only helps.
Look for an improved run from 10 Accepted (Bet Now: $8.00), who has had a couple of runs since coming from Hong Kong and has been okay each time. Complete forgive last time behind Fickle Folly given he was five wide no cover for the trip. If he can slot in and get cover here, gee I think he’s right in this at odds to fill a hole.
Race 8. (17:05) Girvan Waugh Handicap (71) 1600m
I’m going to make a case here for 9 Moqueen (Bet Now: $10.00) at around $21. Had her first run for the Waller camp at the Warwick Farm midweeks and for mine the run didn’t give us much guide. Held up, never really clear and couldn’t build momentum. She is a Stakes winner at the track/distance and she will be strong late, with upside.
12 Smooth Whiskey (Bet Now: $3.40) broke a long run of outs with a dominant win at Wyong two back before going to Warwick Farm where he got a mile back off them but savaged the line late to just miss out on Our Belisa in a deceptive finish. He’ll eat up the Randwick mile here and is a definite leading contender.
4 Allzin (Bet Now: $18.00) is a talented stayer first up for the Graham Hoy yard. This bloke performed very well right throughout the Autumn/Winter, ending the prep with a gutsy midfield effort in the Grafton Cup behind Supply And Demand. Trialled up nicely at Tuncurry last week and he is a noted first up performer.
Race 9. (17:40) Prcise Air Handicap (73) 1400m
4 Istria (Bet Now: $3.20) for me in the get out. Godolphin mare who ran over 1400m at Newcastle last time out and while I doubt she beat much, I thought she was very impressive and her turn of foot was what caught my attention. Ran a beauty start prior behind Slow Burn, who came out and won at Rosehill on Saturday so the form reads well.
8 Gitan (Bet Now: $4.20) is a promising galloper for the Jean Dubois team who resumed over 1250m at Canterbury where he did a bit of work on speed, fought hard but condition gave out late when fifth to the very promising Star Of Africa. Won’t mind a track with a bit of give in it and this does look a thin race.
Keep an eye on 10 The Grandson (Bet Now: $19.00). first up here for John Thompson. He didn’t do a great deal in two runs last prep but there were clear excuses both times for him. He does race well on the fresh and he did show a bit of zip in a recent trial behind Cabeza de Vaca, who came out and won a couple of Saturdays back here.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 12 To Excess
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Higher Ground
VALUE: Race Eight Number 9 Moqueen
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 6, 11, 12
Leg Two: 2, 12
Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 12
Leg Four: 4, 7, 8, 10, 14
$50 Investment= 16.66% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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