The race that stops a nation is of course the Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) and the 2017 edition, filled with such intrigue and fascination, highlights a superb ten race card at Flemington on Tuesday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Melbourne Cup 🏆: View the Melbourne Cup Field
Race 1. (11:00) Emirates 100th A380 Stakes 1000m
1 Setsuna (Bet Now: $4.60) looks the safe play here. Waterhouse/Bott trained filly who ran in the Inglis Banner on Cox Plate and while I doubt she beat little opposition, she was wide throughout yet still rounded them up. Gate one for the babies is perfect down the straight because they have the rail to guide them. She will do me fine.
2 Qafila (Bet Now: $3.10) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained filly who had market support and was very safe on debut in the Debutant at Caulfield and she was most impressive in winning, coming with a well timed run under Damien Oliver to get the win. Trained on the track, so no doubt would have had a look down the straight previously.
11 Roobeena (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Tony McEvoy first starter who should be respected as his runners are always very good in the early 2YO’s in Melbourne. She jumped out at Flemington on October 27 and did a bit wrong, having the head to the side, but still, she was pretty sharp. Stable/Jock combo have had good success in this race in the past and she is a definite yard/market watch.
7 Kara’s Hope (Bet Now: $10.00) is another who should be watched closely in this race. Tim Martin filly having her first start off the back of just one trial at Rosehill where she was going very well behind them and was clicked up to dash, but had no room. Find it very interesting that she comes here for the debut where she could have easily found a race back home.
Trifecta Bet: 1, 2/1, 2/1, 2, 7, 11/1, 2, 7, 11
Race 2. (11:40) Tab.com.au Trophy 1700m
9 Spanner Head (Bet Now: $16.00) looks a great each-way gamble in this race for mine. Loved her win at Flemington fresh over 1400m at the midweeks, beating home a couple of subsequent winners, before going to the Ladies Day Vase at Caulfield where she just raced that touch flat out the back and couldn’t come on. Goes really well third up and the Flemington 1700m looks ideal.
3 Invincibella (Bet Now: $2.60) strung together a couple of sharp wins back home in Sydney before going to the Tesio last Saturday at the Valley where she was gassed chasing Lubiton with that mare proving far too strong, aided by the track bias. That run should toughen her right up for this assignment and she has run well up to 2200m previously.
1 Hell Or Highwater (Bet Now: $9.00) is a tough, tough mare for the Hayes/Dabernig team that also comes through the Ladies Day Vase at Caulfield where she just did overdid on speed and tired to finish down the track behind Quilate. Bit of headgear off to relax her, she maps well, and her prior form reads well for this.
She’s a bit suspect at the trip, but I think 2 Rocket Commander (Bet Now: $14.00) looks good overs in this race. She comes through the Tesio, the same race as Invincibella, and did a very good job to stick on like she did given the tempo of the race and given that was her first run at the mile for some time. Now she has had that hard run under the belt, she’ll be better off, and she draws to get a lovely sit.
Trifecta Bet: Boxed 1, 2, 3, 8, 9
Race 3. (12:15) Lavazza Short Black (90) 1400m
6 New Universe (Bet Now: $4.20) is the best horse in the race here. But, if you were on him when resuming at Randwick two weeks ago, your ticket was probably done before they jumped. He was flighty in the yard, he was a handful behind the gates. Still, he ran on strongly for third. If he can quiet down and settle, he’ll be awfully hard to beat.
12 Divine Quality (Bet Now: $9.00) trialled up really well before giving them windburn fresh at Ballarat before racing on Sale Cup Day where she just got too far back in a slowly run affair and had too much to do when second to Milwaukee. Convinced she will get 1400m no drama and she draws to settle much closer in the run.
11 Un De Sceaux (Bet Now: $46.00) will be around $101 but I could easily make a case for him as a place chance and an exotic contender. Hasn’t raced for around six weeks since sitting out the back at Cranbourne and failing to come on behind Sword Of Justice in a race where the form has held up okay. Goes really well at Flemington and he is drawn out to sit back and launch late.
Trifecta Bet: Boxed 3, 4, 6, 11, 12, 13
Race 4. (12:50) Ronald McDonald House Charities Plate (96) 2800m
16 Ubin Thunderstruck…(Bet Now: $8.00) well, sorry for bringing up the nightmare that was last start at Geelong. Quite frankly, he should have bolted in, but he was just given no hope by Williams, hoping for luck that wasn’t there and he ran a desperately unlucky third. 2800m on the big track down in the weights looks an ideal recipe for success.
6 Sin To Win (Bet Now: $6.00) stepped up beyond 2000m for the first time on Blue Sapphire Day at Caulfield and it worked out beautifully as he controlled things on speed, sprinted at the right time and then kicked hard when he needed to. 2800m is an unknown, but he should be out of trouble on speed and is in ripping form.
10 Plot Twist (Bet Now: $26.00) also comes through that race mentioned above won by Sin To Win. Just forget he went around there. That horse walked them up in front and he really had no chance given he was a one paced stayer. He has really good form beyond 2400m and if it’s last man standing, he’ll be a contender.
4 Swacadelic (Bet Now: $11.00) scored a gutsy win two back in the Ansett Classic at Mornington on Grand Final Day before going to the Sin To Win race at Caulfield where he was another not suited by the tempo at all but he found the line alright late in the piece against the tempo. 2800m is no issue for him and he will be there if it’s a slog.
Trifecta Bet: Boxed 4, 6, 10, 12, 14, 16
Race 5. (13:25) Schweppes Flemington Fling 1000m
1 Property (Bet Now: $4.80) does look the obvious way to go in this race. Very smart three year old for Robert Smerdon who dodged the Coolmore and instead tackles the softer option here. Ran very well against the older horses fresh in the Caulfield Sprint behind Snitty Kitty against the track bias. Yet to run at headquarters, but he has the class and 1000m is ideal.
9 Paret (Bet Now: $4.60) is the best horse by a mile here for mine but might need a bit more time. I think he could be a Group l horse. Won like a star on debut at Canterbury before going to Rosehill where he did everything he could to lose the race and that is what happened when third to Beau Geste. Form out of that has been solid enough and despite the break between runs, he’s the big watch.
4 Madeenaty (Bet Now: $6.50) is a straight track specialist and she has to be included in all multiples. Just forget she went around a couple of Friday nights back at the Valley. Just did too much work on speed and tired late when fourth to Sam’s Image. Saves her best for the straight and Zahra does get on really well with her.
He rises in grade, but I think a big watch in this race is 12 William Thomas (Bet Now: $18.00). He was the street corner tip prior to his debut at Ararat and despite doing plenty wrong, he was too good in a race that has produced winners. Trialled up brilliantly at Cranbourne a couple of weeks back and stable should always be respected when they come to town.
Trifecta Bet: Boxed 1, 4, 9, 12
Race 6. (14:00) Lexus Hybrid Plate 1400m
3 Counterplay (Bet Now: $6.00) finally draws a gate so she has to be seriously considered against this field. Just got too far back over 1400m last time out on Caulfield Cup Day but her closing splits were outstanding again behind Our Crown Mistress. She should sit much closer in the run from the good draw and she gets Moreira steering.
2 Our Crown Mistress (Bet Now: $3.10) is a filly showing really good promise at the moment for the Waterhouse/Bott stable. Plenty to like about her win in that race mentioned above. She sat on a pretty hot speed and was there to be beaten but she showed really good fight in the straight to get the win. Maps super again and rates highly.
12 Boorooj (Bet Now: $7.00) is a progressive filly for the Snowden camp who should handle the rise in grade no bother. Broke the maiden status in a maiden on Seymour Cup Day but she won with a lot of class/authority and ran sizzling time relative to the meeting. Should come over quite comfortably and has upside. Key threat for sure.
4 River Jewel (Bet Now: $16.00) also comes through that Caulfield race won by Our Crown Mistress. This filly had a suck run behind the speed and seemingly had her chance to win but she stuck to the task pretty well in defeat to run fourth, beaten two lengths. Form around her is suspect but she maps alright again and is on her home track.
Trifecta Bet: Boxed 1, 4, 9, 12
Race 7. (15:00) Emirates Melbourne Cup 3200m
It’s rare to get confident about a Melbourne Cup, but I am beaming with confidence about 5 Marmelo (Bet Now: $9.00 ODDS BOOST). I am not sure why some are dismissing his run in the Caulfield Cup. He was the lone backmarker to make significant ground and was only getting warm the last 150m. He will eat up the two miles here, Bowman sticks, upside, fitter…ticks the boxes.
2 Almandin (Bet Now: $12.00 ODDS BOOST) is the best Australian trained chance. Looking to defend his title from last year where he was so good in winning under McEvoy. Yes, his run in the Bart Cummings was flat, but the stable have had Cup winners do something similar in their lead up. The form prior was outstanding so he has to be included and looks very hard to beat once again.
The other international that has had a strong lead up run is 20 Wall Of Fire (Bet Now: $15.00 ODDS BOOST). Loved his effort in the Herbert Power where he came off the bit a fair way out but kept finding the line strongly behind Lord Fandango, who ran a beauty in the Caulfield Cup, so the form reads well. The key to these internationals is having a lead up run. He has had that, so he’s a big threat.
I think the big watch at a bit of odds is 22 Rekindling (Bet Now: $17.00 ODDS BOOST). Comes into the race with arguably the best form of any of the International horses. He is lightly raced and has contested some very good European staying races in his short career. Only a 4YO so he should continue to improve. Would have liked to see him have a run here before contesting the Cup but outside of that he looks a very good chance at a price.
Trifecta BET 💰: 2, 5, 20, 22/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 12, 15, 20, 22, 23/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 12, 15, 20, 22, 23
Easy Trifecta BET 💰: Boxed: 2, 3, 5, 7, 20, 22
Race 8. (16:05) James Boags Premium Stakes 1800m
5 Turnitaround (Bet Now: $26.00) looks a great each way play here. He has been contesting much stronger races than this in recent times and I think back to 1800m and back to Flemington suits. Race wasn’t run to suit him at all last time in the Coongy but that form held up well in the Bendigo Cup on Wednesday via Kiwia. Should get a suck run behind them and I could certainly entertain him at $15.
11 Lubiton (Bet Now: $5.50) is a mare in red hot form for the Bjorn Baker. Smashed the track record to win the Tesio on Cox Plate, leading all the way at a pretty solid tempo set by Blake Shinn. On that run, no dramas with 1800m here, especially if she finds the lead. The little niggle is now she’s taking on the big boys instead of just the mares.
10 Life Less Ordinary (Bet Now: $8.00) is a very interesting runner in the race. Chris Waller trained stayer who has been freshened up since failing in the Metropolitan behind Foundry after getting a mile back in the run. Liked the way he trialled recently at Warwick Farm and I think the 1600m-2000m caper will suit him.
4 Maurus…(Bet Now: $10.00) well, if you backed him in the Coongy Handicap, don’t read further. He simply should have won the race but got badly chopped out when full of momentum and about to burst through. The run did give a big tick to the theory he has come back in super order and the Flemington 1800m should suit him ideally.
Trifecta Bet: Boxed 4, 5, 10, 11, 19
Race 9. (16:45) MSS Security Sprint 1200m
15 I Thought So (Bet Now: $4.80) is building a little reputation as a bit of a non winner but so are most of these and he is the one with the most ability I’d suggest. Looked all over a winner last time out at Randwick but he slightly turned it up, as well as the eventual winner Fickle Folly showing good fight to kick back. If he relaxes, he wins. If he doesn’t, it’s heart in the mouth stuff.
3 Faatinah (Bet Now: $5.50) was unlucky fresh in the Group l Moir behind She Will Reign before going to the Caulfield Sprint where he had the dream run behind the speed and loomed large to win but he couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Snitty Kitty. Fab record down the straight and Bowman sticks, which is a good lead.
6 Calanda (Bet Now: $6.00) had trialled up really well on a couple of occasions for the Snowden camp prior to resuming at Caulfield on Blue Sapphire Day where he was a total forgive to my eye. Just got too far back on a day where it was important to be near the speed. No experience down the straight, but the stable are too good to ignore.
9 Ocean Embers (Bet Now: $18.00) is the big watch here. Talented mare for the Shea Eden stable who has been okay in two runs back from a break, with excuses both times. 1100m fresh back to 1000m of the Caulfield Sprint never looked an ideal scenario and that is how it panned out behind Snitty Kitty. 1200m is her trip and she’ll be charging late.
Trifecta Bet: Boxed 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 15
Race 10. (17:20) HKJC Stakes 1400m
5 White Moss (Bet Now: $4.20) is a progressive mare for the Jason Coyle who looks very hard to beat here. Scored an outstanding win fresh at Canterbury before going to the Nivison at Randwick where she was given a beaut ride on speed and dashed away late to score a most impressive win. 1400m is no issue and she maps super. Really keen e/w at the $5/$2.
1 Fuhryk (Bet Now: $5.50) had been a bit hit and miss in her first two runs this Spring but she bounced back to her brilliant best at Caulfield last time out when getting the lovely run just off the pace before getting the split and her brilliance/class came right to the fore and in the end she was dominant. One of the hardest to beat here.
11 Swampland (Bet Now: $11.00) looks crazy odds here. Henry Dwyer trained mare who drops miles in grade after contesting the Tristarc a tick over two weeks back. Got back on a leaders track, especially a leaders race, got held up, but when she did get clear, she worked home well late behind Global Glamour. Surely that form will hold up here.
16 Jamaican Rain (Bet Now: $21.00) is a talented mare for Richard Laming who has been freshened up since racing at Seynour where she was Winx odds to win but let the punters down. Seemingly had every chance under Jamie Mott but was beaten on the day. This is an obvious step up in grade/depth, but she has a lethal turn of foot when cuddled and gets conditions to suit here.
Trifecta Bet: 1, 5, 11/1, 5, 11/1, 5, 9, 11, 12, 13
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Ten Number 5 White Moss
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 1 Property
VALUE: Race Seven Number 5 Marmelo
Have a TIP? – Post your TIPS for Melbourne Cup day below.
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 2, 5, 13, 15, 17, 19, 20, 22, 23
Leg Two: 4, 5, 10, 11, 12
Leg Three: 3, 6, 8, 9, 15, 16
Leg Four: 1, 5
$50 Investment= % of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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