7/10/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Turnbull Stakes day

Flemington will get to experience the champion mare Winx for the first and perhaps only time this Saturday in the Group l Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and her clash with Humidor highlights a fab card at headquarters. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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11 Sunlight (Bet Now: $3.60) clearly on top and I’m pretty confident she can get the job done. Looks a real precocious type for Tony McEvoy yard who is bred in the purple being by Zoustar out of the Group l performed mare Solar Charged. Looked outstanding in her Cranbourne trial win, doing everything right and winning under a hold. Keen.

3 Grand Challenge (Bet Now: $5.50) is a son of Not A Single Doubt on debut for the Mick Price team. This Sun Bloodstock colt trialled at Cranbourne on September 4 where he looked to do everything right to my eye, showing gate speed, holding the rail, and despite being niggled, he looked to travel nicely. He can go close.

9 Nomothaj (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Snitzel filly on debut for the Hayes/Dabernig team. This trialled on September 12 at Wodonga where she looked to do everything right on speed, looked to travel well and wasn’t really under any pressure when second to stablemate Qafila. Looks talented and should run well.

11 Rellson (Bet Now: $5.00) is a very promising colt for the Aaron Purcell team who had no luck on debut at Bendigo when hard in the market before getting back in the punters good books at Wangaratta where he was backed as if he was Black Caviar and he won accordingly. Good test here but on what I’ve seen, he can measure up.

10 Hulme (Bet Now: $7.50) is a smart looking colt for the Mick Price team who resumed in the Exford here three weeks back and his effort from the back was outstanding I thought, getting well back off the pace before working home with real purpose late in the piece. Not as much depth/quality here and should be fitter.

9 Bravo Tango (Bet Now: $11.00) is the interesting one here. Mitchell Freedman trained son of Congrats who is two for two, in weaker races, but he is showing good promise. Won well on debut at Donald before taking on the older horses at Geelong where he defied a betting drift and won quite well. He’s the one who has to raise it a notch, but I think he can.

6 Animalia (Bet Now: $5.00) is a progressive three year old for Godolphin who looks hard to beat here after racing over the mile at Newcastle on Newcastle Cup Day where he took on the older horses and aided by a gun on speed ride from McEvoy, he toughed it out strongly and was good to the line and through it. Looks a great play here, especially up to 1800m.

3 Eshtiraak, (Bet Now: $6.50) like a few here, come through the mile race at Caulfield a fortnight back and he was the clear unlucky runner. Got a long way back in the run, and was held up for a fair way, before eventually getting clear and running fifth to Cliff’s Edge. Flemington 1800m looks ideal and he has upside.

4 Sunquest (Bet Now: $9.00) could have claims to being one of the best maidens in Australia. He loomed to win the Caulfield mile race two weeks ago but he couldn’t quite get the job done and had to settle for second to Cliff’s Edge. That does leave me with queries at him running 1800m, but trained on the track, and a soft ride, he can get it.

4 Spieth (Bet Now: $2.50) well and truly faces his D-Day here. He has promised so much throughout his career but his best has been an 1100m Listed race at Randwick, nearly 12 months to the day. Tempo/bias/injury against him first up in the Concorde but the form out of that has been franked of course via Redzel. If he brings his best and gets normal luck, he wins…but I couldn’t back him.

1 The Quarterback (Bet Now: $8.50) looks a great each way play for mine. High class sprinter first up for the Robbie Griffiths team who had two runs in the Autumn and just forget he went around both times. Newmarket run, the bias was against him, then he got back and had no luck in the William Reid. Been given a good break and his trial win at Cranbourne was outstanding. Has improvement to come, but has class/quality on his side.

2 Ulmann (Bet Now: $19.00) is a quality galloper that resumes for the Darren Weir yard. This bloke ran three times during the Winter, with his lone win coming first up when spanking them at the Bool in the Wangoom. From all reports, his jump outs have been very good and he is a strong first up performer.

2 Winx (Bet Now: $2.00 ODDS BOOST OFFER) to make a big statement here before the Cox Plate. Visually not going as well as what she has in the past but she is running the time and freak splits to suggest she is as good as ever. From all reports she worked the house down here on Monday, with the cushion in the track obviously being a big help for her. Should be winning.

It’s been a while since we have had the discussion of a horse that could beat Winx but 1 Humidor (Bet Now: $4.80) certainly has the potential to do so. His Makybe Diva win here was just unbelievable. He won the race, and not just won, he spanked his rivals, which included Hartnell, regarded as a world class horse at his best. Humidor will eat up the 2000m and really, a win over the great mare wouldn’t shock me at all.

3 Ventura Storm (Bet Now: $26.00) does look next best. His run in the Makybe Diva was outstanding without any kind of good luck. Should haev finished much closer but was never really clear. He is ticking over beautifully for the Cups and this should be an ideal clean out leading. Should run third.

Hard to knock a winner and that is what 4 Leather’N’Lace (Bet Now: $3.20) is for Darren Weir. Shes puts herself on speed, fights and keeps kicking, like she did when victorious over 1400m at Caulfield last time out when leading all the way under Damien Lane. Bred to eat up the mile and looks the safe play.

Giving the Darren Weir trained 3 Anchor Bid (Bet Now: $7.00) another chance here. Impressive first up win at Bendigo before going to the Oaks trial over 1800m here last Wednesday and I think she was a total forgive. Had to make a long and searching run from the back, on a day where making significant ground was difficult, and by the time she got to the 300m, she was gassed. Better run here, she can bounce back.

5 Watchmespin (Bet Now: $23.00) strung together a couple of nice wins before racing over the mile at Caulfield where she sat back off the pace and presented wider to close off really well late and was a definite eye catcher behind Cliff’s Edge. Back to her own age/sex, home track and does have upside.

1 Almandin (Bet Now: $1.85) just has to be included. What I will say is that he was flattered a bit by his win in the JRA Trophy last time out, but visually, it was spectacular and he won as if it was a barrier trial. He’s on top, I like him, but I couldn’t take anything silly like even money or thereabouts. He’s not up against scrubs here. There are quality gallopers.

3 Harlem (Bet Now: $3.90) clearly has to be respected here. Bit flattered by the race shape and ride, but still, his win in the Naturalism was dominant and he won with alot of class and authority. He will only be better over further, so the 2500m here is ideal and he can definitely knock off Almandin.

4 Amelie’s Star (Bet Now: $6.00) is one of those that can be classed as a quality galloper. Her effort in the Naturalism was unbelievable. Had to go back to last from the wide gate and it was a day/race where those on speed and near the rail were seriously advantaged. If she is within striking range on the turn, she’ll go awfully close here.

10 Ellicazoom (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Neville Parnham trained mare who also was first up in the How Now and her effort wasn’t too bad I thought. Had to do work from the wide gate and was gone 250m out but she stuck on really well. Now draws to get a suck run off the pace and she can rattle off a split when cuddled.

1 Prompt Response (Bet Now: $8.00) is a quality mare for the Waterhouse/Bott team who also resumed in the How Now and did a good job after doing a bit of work early to run a close up fifth to Savanna Amour. Likes racing at Flemington, maps well, should lead and take a power of beating I think.

5 Eckstein (Bet Now: $15.00) Looks the value in the race. She is two from two second up which she is today and she has drawn a gate to get an easy run midfield. Despite running last in the Shorts she wasn’t beaten far and this looks a lot easier.

I reckon the 1400m of Flemington will really suit 8 New Tipperary (Bet Now: $5.00). Joe Pride trained galloper who is three weeks between runs since resuming in the Bill Ritchie where the tempo/bias was clearly against him but I loved the way he closed off late behind Comin’ Through. Should get a good speed in front of him here and he is a bomb when produced second up.

11 Mongolian Wolf (Bet Now: $13.00) is a smart horse that resumes for the Weir camp and Australian Bloodstock. He had a few runs for Weir from NZ and his efforts were solid without being spectacular. 1400m is clearly short of his best but he does have a bit of class/quality about him and should be respected.

16 Saint Valorem (Bet Now: $15.00) could be the sleeper here at odds. His run a fortnight back over 1400m at Caulfield was outstanding I thought given he was back in a crawl and really had no right to finish off like he did, but his splits behind Sircconi were excellent. Draws to get good cover here and launch late.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Almandin

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 11 Sunlight

VALUE: Race Eight Number 10 Ellicazoom

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 9, 12

Leg Two: 1, 3, 4

Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 9, 10, 16

Leg Four: 8, 11, 14, 16

$50 Investment= 13.88% of the dividend if successful

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