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Eight races will be run and won at Belmont this Saturday where it is Birthday Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

Race 1. (16:14) Budget Car & Truck Rental Maiden 1400m

Back Me

Fair dinkum lottery this. Siding with 5 Sovereign Trade (Bet Now: $8.00). Bernie Miller trained gelding who resumed over 1200m here last Saturday where he got well back off the pace but worked home okay late without threatening behind Another Story. Meets a very ordinary bunch and with the upside, he’s the way to go.

Danger

7 Technical Limit (Bet Now: $12.00) is a son of Heritage first up for Tameeka Brown. This gelding raced twice in the Autumn, with the second race being at Ascot when finishing midfield in a race which has produced four subsequent winners. Looked sharp in a trial at Lark Hill last week and gets Mitch Pateman steering.

Long Shot

11 Red Bananas (Bet Now: $7.00) is the very interesting runner here. Justin Warwick trained mare who resumes here after a 27 week break. Has done very little in three career outings to date but did look quite sharp in a Lark Hill trial win last week, and time. If she brings that here, she’ll go close.

Race 2. (16:54) Lavazza Handicap (72+) 1650m

Back Me

Only bad luck should beat 1 Pinzu (Bet Now: $2.50) here. On the seven day back up for the Durrant camp after showing an electric turn of foot off a slow pace to win over 1400m here last Saturday. He looks as if he will only get better over further so the rise to the 1650m is no issue and gets in really well after the claim.

Danger

3 Pushin’ Shapes (Bet Now: $10.00) has been freshened up back to the mile after racing over 2100m in the Boulder Cup last time out at Kalgoorlie where he got back in a race which didn’t really suit his racing pattern and I think he was a forgive. Draws to get a suck run behind them and does have a bit of class/quality.

Long Shot

6 Come On Board (Bet Now: $5.50) was three weeks between runs when racing at this track/distance a fortnight back where he attempted to lead all the way at a decent clip and he gave a good kick but was outgunned late in the piece behind Out Finest Moments. Does appear to map well here and Pike jumps on.

Race 3. (17:33) Myer Fashions On The Field Handicap (66+) 1400m

Back Me

3 Just Like Fire (Bet Now: $2.25) is a talented mare for the Julie Clements team who resumed over this track/distance a fortnight back and produced a barnstorming performance to rattle home from the back and score a super fresh win. She can only improve off that and is the clear one to beat for mine.

Danger

7 Star Value (Bet Now: $4.20) is an above average four year old gelding who had really good market support when racing over this track/distance last Wednesday where he had a suck run behind the tempo before Newman eased him to the outside and he finished best in a driving go. Looks to have upside and maps well once again.

Long Shot

2 Chasing Chaos (Bet Now: $7.00) comes back to the 1400m after racing over the mile here in recent times where he has run okay but hasn’t quite seen out the mile. Latest run was two weeks back when off the pace and whacking away behind Our Finest Moment. Maps okay here and the claim is a big tick.

Race 4. (18:08) Tabtouch Handicap (1MW) 2100m

Back Me

2 Caralabek (Bet Now: $5.50) is on the seven day back up for the Durrant camp after racing at this track/distance last Saturday where on first look, he was a flop, but I think you have to be a bit forgiving. He was held up and only got clear early in the straight, and this horse does need time to wind into his work. If that eventuates here, he can bounce back.

Danger

9 Calibra (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Teofilo mare who has been quite good since coming to WA. Got a well deserved win on the board when racing over the 1700m here last Wednesday, grinding it out best in a close go to the line. Racing as if the 2100m will suit and she does strike a thin race.

Long Shot

6 Master Magician (Bet Now: $9.00) is a progressive son of Universal Ruler who ran over teh 1850m at Toodyay a fortnight back in what looked a tidy event and aided by a lovely ride from Pateman, the four year old came with a well timed run to overhaul them late. Another that looks suited up to 2100m and has upside.

Race 5. (18:45) Birthday Stakes 1200m

Back Me

Siding with 7 Meteoroid  (Bet Now: $5.50).Simon Miller trained mare who hasn’t raced for eight weeks since scoring a superb win in the Belmont Newmarket at this track/distance, sitting 1/1 throughout before peeling out and finishing best. Comes here with no trials, but she is a bomb when produced fresh.

Danger

1 Man Booker (Bet Now: $2.80) is a classy five year old that kicks off his Railway mission. He was the form horse of WA racing in the Autumn, winning a stack of feature races before ending the prep with a third to Great Shot in the Old Comrade. Looked great in a trial here on Monday and is a two time first up winner.

Long Shot

4 Rebel King (Bet Now: $13.00) is a talented six year old who had good market support at odds late when resuming at this track/distance three weeks back and aided by a lovely ride near the speed from Pike, the son of Universal Ruler kept finding under hard riding to score a narrow but impressive win. Has to raise the bar here, but he certainly can with the fitness edge.

Race 6. (19:20) D'Orsogna Handicap (72+) 1000m

Back Me

7 Salorsci (Bet Now: $2.90) looks a standout on the card. Jeff Noske trained four year old who could develop into a local contender for the Winterbotom so it will be very interesting to see how he goes here. Form around him from last prep, where he won two of three, has been great, and his trial here a tick under three weeks back was outstanding. Keen.

Danger

4 Lockroy (Bet Now: $15.00) is a very consistent type for the Gangemi team who doesn’t run a bad race and is always thereabouts. He ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he had the suck run behind the speed and loomed large to win but had to settle for second to I Am Incredible. Hard fit and maps super.

Long Shot

1 Zuccheros (Bet Now: $26.00) looks the knockout chance. Durrant trained galloper who resumed in the I Am Incredible race mentioned above and his effort from the back over an unsuitable trip was very good, clocking some fast splits late. Think he wants further, but if they go hard in front, he’s the one to watch.

Race 7. (19:55) Amelia Park Beef Plate 1300m

Back Me

Good race but have to go with 3 Rockon Tommy (Bet Now: $3.20).  Two for two to start his career and I was very impressed with his win here last Wednesday. Sat outside the speed and despite doing a bit wrong in the straight, he won with a bit of class and authority. Draws awkwardly, but I’m a fan of him.

Danger

9 Disruptive (Bet Now: $8.00) was hard in the market for Lindsey Smith when racing at Northam last Monday and while the maiden win was only narrow, it was good considering he did look as if he would improve with the run under the belt. Steps straight up to city grade, but I think he can and will handle it.

Long Shot

11 Snitzatune (Bet Now: $19.00) is a Fred Kersley trained gelding who resumes after kicking off his career in July on a heavy track here where he sat wide most of the way and stuck on well behind Lob City. Trialled up pretty well to the eye last week at Lark Hill and you always have to respect the stable.

Race 8. (20:30) Crown Towers Handicap (1MW) 1000m

Back Me

11 Undisclosed (Bet Now: $15.00) for me in the get out. Absolute speed demon for Colin Webster who ran here a fortnight back and tried hard but couldn’t quite see it out behind Sovereign Hall. Dry track and 1000m is her go, so expect her to ping the lids, lead and give them something to chase big time.

Danger

7 Glimmer Girl (Bet Now: $4.80) resumed in that race mentioned above. The Team Williams trained mare had good market support and was near fav when they jumped but on face value, she was a bit plain after receiving every chance in the run under Pike. She is a second up winner and I’m willing to give her another look.

Long Shot

1 Tenterden (Bet Now: $11.00) ran fourth in the Sovereign Hall race and I thought his effort was pretty good. Had the box seat run all the way and was held up for a brief moment in the straight but was certainly out in plenty of time. Draws wide, but the claim for Tan helps and if he can get cover, he’s a knockout chance.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Two Number 1 Pinzu

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 7 Salorsci

VALUE: Race Three Number 3 Just Like Fire

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 7

Leg Two: 7

Leg Three: 3, 9

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 7, 9, 10, 11

$50 Investment= 89.28% of the dividend if successful

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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