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The Belmont Winter Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Belmont Oaks Day. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

Race 1. (14:38) Kirin Megumi Plate 1000m

Back Me

I think 2 Kiss The Breeze (Bet Now: $4.60) can turn the tables on Fire And Rain. This pair clashed and resumed a fortnight back at this track/distance, with the latter leading most of the way while this girl did work in the run and didn’t do a bad job to finish as close as she did. Should get the ideal cart over via Fire And Rain and prove tough to hold out.

Danger

1 Fire And Rain (Bet Now: $2.60) was a well backed odds on pop when first up in that race mentioned above and I think the race was won via the intent for Staples, who burnt the candle to find the front and once he did, he was always in control. Probably finds the lead again, but will give the Durrant filly the drag across. Needs to hold her out.

Long Shot

10 Zephyr Queen (Bet Now: $16.00) is the wildcard. Universal Ruler filly on debut for Jim Taylor and looks wound up to run well on debut off the back of a couple of trial wins here in pretty good fashion, the latest coming last week over 1000m. Blinkers on…and the bar plates, the dreaded bar plates. But still, she’s in an astute team and should be respected.

Race 2. (15:18) Tabtouch Handicap (1MW) 1200m

Back Me

2 Great Again (Bet Now: $1.80) should be winning again. Lindsey Smith has this gelding going great guns this time in.Resumed with a tough win over 1300m at Northam before racing at that trip here last Saturday where he did work to find the front but despite that early burn, he gave a tremendous kick and proved too good. Less depth here and looks to get over comfortably.

Danger

1 Kramden (Bet Now: $5.00) was an alarming drifter in betting when resuming at this track/distance last Wednesday but he continued his fab first up record with a barnstorming finish out wide to win. Not as dynamic second up, but hard to ignore the way he won the resumption and interesting that the stable finds Pike to steer.

Long Shot

9 Comparative (Bet Now: $23.00) is a gutsy horse for Neville Parnham who has only won the two races from 27 outings but is rarely far away. That was the case last Wednesday at this track/distance when poking his way through nearer the inside to run a game second to Kramden. Gets a 1kg weight swing and if we do get a wet track, he comes right into play.

Race 3. (15:58) Mumm Champagne Handicap (1MW) 1200m

Back Me

Siding with 5 Nashville Cat (Bet Now: $13.00) in a tough race. Adam Durrant trains this filly, who ran over this track/distance a couple of weeks back and defied a notable drift in betting, out to $18 after opening $6, but came with a well timed run under Peter Knuckey to score. Weight relief, possible rain affected track, good gate…ticks enough boxes for mine.

Danger

6 Thunderstrut (Bet Now: $3.20) is on the seven day back up for the Lindsey Smith team after scoring a tough on speed win over 1000m here last Saturday, getting tired late but fighting hard late to cling on and fend off the above average Street Fury. Just has to stretch it to 1200m now, but the depth isn’t strong.

Long Shot

1 Big Caroline (Bet Now: $10.00) is three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where she spotted them a huge start but produced a brilliant finale to run third to Enticing Star, the boom horse of WA racing. That form probably should see her win this, but she may have to give away too much head start from the draw.

Race 4. (16:33) Crown Sports Bar Handicap (72+) 1000m

Back Me

4 Ambience (Bet Now: $2.45) looks the good thing on the program. He was absolutely smashed in betting when racing at this track/distance two weeks ago and the punters got it absolutely spot on as he got the suck run behind the hot speed, peeled, got clear air and raced away. He’ll get a near identical run this time. Should win again.

Danger

3 Mad Brad (Bet Now: $14.00) is a handy sprinter resuming for the Pearce team. This seven year old hasn’t raced since mid Feb at Albany in the Fitzpatrick Plate where he was a good thing beaten behind Long Knife, getting no luck in the straight. Resumes with no trials, but Pike rides, good fresh record and another that will love the hot tempo.

Long Shot

6 I Am Incredible (Bet Now: $15.00) comes through the race won by Ambiente mentioned above. He had a relatively good run in transit that afternoon but just lacked the turn of foot when it mattered. He’s probably better suited at the midweeks, but should get a soft sit off the speed and he can perhaps fill a first four spot.

Race 5. (17:10) Argonaut Corporate Advisers & Stockbrokers Handicap (66+) 2000m

Back Me

10 Red Army (Bet Now: $3.20) at 2000m will do me. Was all over him last Saturday here at the mile but just found the trip too short. His last 150m though nearer the inside was outstanding, just missing out. Seven day back up, out to the ideal trip and from a good draw…New Age does look the only serious threat.

Danger

9 New Age, (Bet Now: $3.40) unlike Red Army, does have the 2000m run under the belt, with that run resulting in a pretty slick win at Pinjarra last Thursday under a confident ride from Pike. Looks to have a bit of upside to come and Pike sticks with her. She’s got the staying ability…does she have the brilliance to go with Red Army?

Long Shot

4 Kokopu (Bet Now: $15.00) is on the quick back up for the Matthews team after racing over the mile here last Saturday and if you were on, it was just one ugly watch, getting badly held up when appearing to be full of running and should have finished much closer behind Tellem We’re Comin. Has placed at 2000m when racing in NSW, though first go in WA.

Race 6. (17:45) Aquanita Stakes 2000m

Back Me

2 Come Play With Me (Bet Now: $2.00) is a beauty for the Adam Durrant team and he does have that hard staying prep under the belt. He has taken on the older horses at his last two outings over the staying trip and has proven too good for them, which is always a big tick for a young horse. Should get run of the race stuff and prove hard to beat.

Danger

3 State Prosecutor (Bet Now: $2.00) was a somewhat surprising winner of the Belmont Guineas a fortnight back but visually it was a spectacular win, charging home from last and savaging the line to win under a ripping steer from Pike. If he can stretch that brilliance to 2000m, he’s clearly the horse to beat.

Long Shot

1 Debellatio (Bet Now: $9.50) is racing as if the 2000m will be perfect for him. He ran in the Belmont Guineas where he had the suck run behind the speed and was a touch held up when trying to build momentum, but was held by State Prosecutor. He’s racing as if 2000m will be ideal and he’s of course in the right stable.

Race 7. (18:20) Belmont Oaks 2000m

Back Me

I think 8 Kelly’s Gem (Bet Now: $8.00) can run well here. On the quick back up for Adam Durrant after winning last Wednesday over 1700m here, coming with a beautifully timed run under Pike and that Pike vigour was the difference between winning and losing in the end. Has placed at 2000m previously, has upside and she’ll be strong late.

Danger

5 Send My Love (Bet Now: $5.00) is an Azamour filly for the Matthews team who has plenty of upside and she’ll have no trouble with the trip. Ran over the mile here three weeks back where she got the job done, aided by a lovely ride from Carbery, finishing best over the final 100m and running to the line and through it with purpose. Definite respect for her.

Long Shot

2 Truly Belong (Bet Now: $12.00) is one of the class runners of the field, and she drops a bit in depth after contesting the Belmont Guineas where she raced a bit tight between runners in the straight and she seemed to somewhat resent that when trying to build the revs. Will get clear running from the wide gate and Pike jumps on.

Race 8. (18:55) Vale Peter Miguel Handicap (78+) 1400m

Back Me

Hoping for a wet track, because I’m keen to have something each way on 10 Gunnago (Bet Now: $4.20). Was three weeks between runs when racing over 1300m here a fortnight ago and just ran out of condition late in the piece behind Tellem We’re Comin. Gets weight relief, Bar Plates off, give in the ground…the set up is there for him to run well.

Danger

7 Touch Of Silver (Bet Now: $10.00) is a talented gelding for Adam Durrant who resumed three weeks back at this track/distance where he got a mile off them in the run but you had to like the way he closed off behind One Short in a blanket finish. He is a second up winner and should improve off that…just wish it was 1600m.

Long Shot

I think this race will tell us where 2 Meteoroid (Bet Now: $15.00) is at. She has contested blacktype races for a long time now, and drops back to benchmark company after two poor runs to kick off the prep, admittedly in much harder races than this. Bolts in if she runs up to her best…but it seems she’s nowhere near that. Drop in grade may help.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Four Number 4 Ambiente

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 10 Red Army

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 5 Nashville Cat

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 9, 10

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6

Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 8

Leg Four: 2, 7, 8, 10, 13

$50 Investment= 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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