7/2/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Hobart, Hobart Cup day

A bumper ten race card has been assembled for Hobart Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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Going with 11 Princess Mataoka (Bet Now: $2.90) in the opener. This girl debuted at Launceston over 1220m where she was tardy away and back near last in the run. Was never really a winning threat but liked the way she finished her race off. If she can sit closer in the run, she will take some beating.

7 Miss Enthusiasm (Bet Now: $3.80) is bursting to break her maiden tag and good lead for her is that Froggy sticks from last time, which was at this track/distance and battled away strongly from on speed to run second. Provided she doesn’t have to do too much work from the gate, she will be dangerous.

A rise in trip should suit 4 Society Bill (Bet Now: $7.50). He ran over 1100m at Launceston last start and worked home okay in what looked a pretty strong maiden. Racing as if a rise to 1200m will suit and the depth here is nowhere near as strong as what he faced last time out.

10 Noteably (Bet Now: $11.00) on top. Adam Trinder rides with Anthony Darmanin and a rise to 1400m looks ideal. Just looked in need of the run fresh before stepping up to 1200m and really liked the way she found the line late. Both runs this prep have seen her well backed so third up at 1400m looks a good recipe.

6 Merv Decides (Bet Now: $2.90) has done little wrong in two career outings, placing in both runs. Ran over 1200m here last start and warmed to the task late between runners when third. Off that effort, 1400m should suit and he does have less convictions than most engaged here.

14 Rockymountainhigh (Bet Now: $11.00) should improve back to maiden company. Thrown in the deep end in the Thousand Guineas last start and just found the class a bit much. Better suited here and is in the right stable to produce a sharp bounce back. Hard to beat.

On top is 2 Need A Gin (Bet Now: $1.80). Progressive son of Needs Further for Adam Trinder that was an impressive maiden winner two back before working home strongly from off the pace to finish second. Has less convictions than most and should prove hard to beat against this lot.

1 Dinga’s Delight (Bet Now: $5.50) has upside to come and has a good second up record so think he can be dangerous here at odds. Resumed over 1400m and was never really a winning threat but liked the way he finished his race off. Gets Declan Bates to steer and can definitely take this out.

3 Spirit Of Wiora (Bet Now: $10.00) hasn’t done a great deal throughout his career, but in a thin race, he could well run an improved race. Didn’t really fire a shot last time out at Launceston after getting back in the run but I do think back to the mile suits given his lone run at the trip resulted in his lone win.

I’ll take a punt with 7 Needs Toasting (Bet Now: $8.50), a lightly raced son of Needs Further for Adam Trinder who gets Blinkers first time, hopefully to sharpen him up. I think he has shown enough to suggest he can take a race like this out and he has more upside than most engaged.

2 So Astounding (Bet Now: $3.10) looks one of the hardest to beat on exposed form and does get leading rider David Pires to steer. He worked to the line pretty well last time out, running second in what looked solid enough race. Bursting to win a race and he gets his chance.

11 Our Rossa (Bet Now: $17.00) can be an improver at odds. Both runs back from a spell have come at 1400m. First up had little luck but didn’t mind her effort last time out, working home nicely from the back. If she can use gate one to advantage with Froggy steering, she can cause problems at a price.

Like 8 Our Shinkansen (Bet Now: $13.00) here for that man again, Adam Trinder, who I am tipping to have a fat day. This mare was very good in defeat over 1200m at Launceston last time out, sitting back last before making a mid race move without cover. Loomed to win but just missed in a blanket finish. More economical run this time around and she can take this out.

You don’t know how good a horse is til they are beaten so have to respect 2 And Beyond (Bet Now: $2.15), who is 2/2 to start his career. Both starts/wins have come at Launceston and he has been strong to the line in winning each time, the latest being a few weeks ago over 1200m. Hard to beat.

3 Maroch (Bet Now: $7.00) is an interesting runner. Former NSW galloper that was with Mark Newnham and did show promise when racing there but consistency was lacking. Has had one run for new trainer Steven Davis, which came over 1200m at Launceston when leading and tiring late. Tick over trial was sharp and his best is good enough.

A bit surprised that $1.45 is on offer for 5 Mystic Journey (Bet Now: $1.45) because I do feel she should be shorter. To the eye, she was disappointing first up at Launceston, but the leader/winner got complete control in front and her late splits were very sharp but she would have to been Winx to go faster. Fitter, 1400m, inside gate, unbeaten at Hobart…should win.

2 Newhart (Bet Now: $6.50) is the unknown. Tends to save his best for Devonport Synthetic, where he has won the past two Devonport Cups, his last start being his second win. Fresh legs back to 1400m I find interesting and will be intriguing to see if they ride him conservatively with an eye towards Launceston or do they ride aggressively and turn this into a real 1400m test.

4 Dark Wanderer (Bet Now: $16.00) is suited back in trip. They tried to stretch him out in trip towards the Devonport Cup but I think it proved that beyond 1400m, at this sort of level, sees him out. Like him back to 1400m and should lead these for fun. If that eventuates, can sneak a top four spot.

Hard to get away from 2 Hela (Bet Now: $1.60), unbeaten for Scott Brunton and think that will continue here. She was dominant in the Thousand Guineas, spanking her rivals from on speed by over four lengths with a further four lengths back to third. Short enough, but hard seeing her getting beat.

Maher/Eustace in 2000m+ races is a good recipe so have to respect 4 Mystique Falcon (Bet Now: $6.00), who comes here third up with upside to come. She comes through a really fast run race at Flemington over 2000m when near the speed and battling away okay. That tough run should hold her in good stead.

6 Lady Of Fortune (Bet Now: $11.00) can sneak a first four spot. Was big odds in the Thousand Guineas but liked the way she finished her race off from the back behind Helma, running second, beaten four lengths but she beat the rest by four lengths, so in terms of the locals, she sits behind Helma.

With the run under the belt, I’m just leaning towards 1 Deroche (Bet Now: $1.20). High quality local mare that resumed in the Lady Lynette at Launceston where she was off the speed before McCoull eased her wider and her class came to the fore, finishing over the top for a dominant win. Froggy jumps back on and should have won this race last year. Gets her chance to atone.

3 Street Icon (Bet Now: $7.00) doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates, but she has contested some pretty strong races throughout her career. Resumes for Kevin Corstens to have another crack at this race. Was on her in this race last year and led at a decent clip before just feeling the pinch late. Liked a recent jumpout and can run well fresh.

9 Red Letter Lady (Bet Now: $15.00) doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates, but she has contested some pretty strong races throughout her career. Resumes for Kevin Corstens to have another crack at this race. Was on her in this race last year and led at a decent clip before just feeling the pinch late. Liked a recent jumpout and can run well fresh.

Going for some each way value in the Cup in the shape of 14 Classic Weiwei (Bet Now: $9.50). Gee he was enormous in defeat last Saturday at Caulfield, sitting wide no cover for the 2400m trip yet kept finding under pressure to run a game fourth to Long Arm. Gets down in the weights, Vorster takes over and is hard fit, racing well.

6 Barade (Bet Now: $5.00) looks hard to beat for an in form Archie Alexander team. Has been given a mini freshen up since taking out the Shoot Out at Eagle Farm, landing some decent bets at odds. Dare say he has eyes on the Adelaide Cup hence the freshen up and running here then the Launceston Cup, but he looked great in a tick over Geelong trial.

12 Sir Simon (Bet Now: $16.00) has always shown good talent for Scott Brunton so keen to see how he goes at 2400m. He led throughout and gave them a galloping lesson over 2100m last time out, carrying 62kg and just proving way too good for them. Tumbles in weight and will give a sight. Last bit may test.

4 Elisavet (Bet Now: $9.50) in the get out. Leanne Gaffney has this mare racing very well at the moment, predominantly on the Devonport Synthetic but her last start effort at this track/distance was quite good, working home well from off the speed to run third to dominant winner Sir Simon. If she’s within range on the turn, she’ll take some beating.

Market will be fascinating with 1 Odin’s Folly (Bet Now: $3.70). Scott Brunton trained mare that is a few weeks between runs since contesting the Brighton Cup where the market said she had three legs and she ran accordingly when a beaten horse on the turn. She’s better than that and back to this grade, on prior form, clearly the one to beat.

3 Rhode Away (Bet Now: $6.00) will put himself on speed and give his all, which is what he did over the mile at Launceston a few weeks ago and fought on strongly, fending them off to win and win well. Gets in well after the claim, should set a solid tempo and give a bold sight for his supporters.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 5 Mystic Journey

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Hela

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 14 Classic Weiwei

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 4, 5, 6, 12, 14

Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 8

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