Public holiday racing in Sydney this Monday heads to Warwick Farm for an eight race card. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (13:25) TAB Handicap (70) 1200m
Good race, tricky race to start the day. There was a bit of style about the debut win of 7 Mirra Vision (Bet Now: $4.20) at Newcastle. Jumped well, landed on speed, where they really walked the first half, turning it into a dash home, but she was safely holding her rivals and on the line was edging clear. I think she’ll jump and lead these comfortably, proving hard to run down.
2 Catwalk (Bet Now: $4.20) is a fascinating runner. She was potentially a Princess Series filly but a setback or two has seen her miss that and instead resume here with an eye towards Melbourne. Showed good progression in two career outings during the Winter before being spelled. Trials leading in have been quite good and she is proven on rain affected ground.
1 Grand Piano (Bet Now: $13.00) will be strong late if this turns into a slog. He was good first up behind Fiery Red before remaining at the 1100m on a bog here and he was strongest late in winning, beating Hulk, which isn’t a difficult task, so that form does look suspect, but on face value, he’s been good in two runs back from a spell and up to 1200m looks a definite positive.
Race 2. (14:00) Bowermans Office Furniture Plate 1600m
Want to give 2 Kirwan’s Lane (Bet Now: $13.00) another look. Was really keen on him winning last Saturday at Kembla off the back of an excellent run at Canterbury against the bias, but gee he was disappointing. Thought he had every chance but found little when asked for an effort. Nothing said in the Stewards Report, so either he had an off day, or he’s not that good. At the double figures, I’m happy to find out.
6 Relucent (Bet Now: $1.70) looks one of the hardest to beat. Chris Waller trained three year old who was a few weeks between runs when racing over the 1550m at Canterbury last time where he was forced to make a sustained run from the back against the track pattern and loomed to win, but he bottomed out the final 200m and couldn’t finish it off when third to stablemate Lewis. Better luck here and he can clearly win.
5 Pincer (Bet Now: $7.00) could be an improver at odds for the WaterBott team. Thought he was good on debut behind Blesk over 1300m at Goulburn before stepping up to the mile at the same track where he was forced to make his run nearer the inside and I don’t think that was the A1 ground. I think he’ll get across comfortably from the gate, land near the speed and be hard to run down.
Race 3. (14:35) Kia Handicap (78) 1400m
Surely 1 Into The Abyss (Bet Now: $2.20) beats these? If she can’t…then I’m not sure she’ll be winning in town ever again. Has contested blacktype races in 14 of her 15 career outings, with the lone non blacktype race being her debut where she bolted up. Her three runs this time in have been solid enough without threatening. She gets gate one, the claim, hard fit…surely she wins.
3 Lilith (Bet Now: $3.40) is in a purple patch at the moment for Allan Denham. This mare sprouted wings late to win two back at Newcastle before going to the 1250m at Canterbury, when wide throughout yet kept finding and got pretty close to beating Quadrica, with that form being ticked off thanks to Erno. Like her up to 1400m and a big tick is Nash taking the ride.
6 Touch Of Mink (Bet Now: $4.20) isn’t going too bad this time in and with the small field, I think she can be dangerous and her racing pattern won’t be such a disadvantage. Ran over 1400m at Randwick last time and closed off okay against the pattern of the race behind an in form Cuba. Back on her home track and she is bred to appreciate some cut in the ground.
Race 4. (15:10) Vinery Stallions Handicap (78) 1600m
Nothing flash re price, but 5 Erno (Bet Now: $3.10) is on top. Progressive gelding for Kim Waugh that was very unlucky two back at Canterbury, largely thanks to an ordinary steer from J Mac. Backed up a week later on a bog Warwick Farm surface when getting clear run early and surging in the mud best to win narrowly. Think the 1600m will be fine for him, he’ll be better on firmer footing and lands on speed rather comfortably from the gate.
Just how good is 7 Tricky Gal? (Bet Now: $3.30) You could make a case that she should be 4/4 and not 3/4. Threw the race away two back at Wyong after wandering towards the outside fence in the straight. Then went to the mile at Newcastle when wide with cover before taking the lead soon after straightening and she held a safe margin to the line in a dominant win. Confident she measures up.
4 Condor (Bet Now: $9.00) is the knockout hope. He’s had the Blinkers off the past two when ridden with cover, more patience, and has run okay without really threatening, the latest behind Cuba. Couple of significant factors here. He gets the Blinkers back on, with firmer footing, and the booking of Tim Clark tells me that they’ll be pushing forward, which was the tactics that got him the win first up.
Race 5. (15:45) Iron Jack Handicap 1000m
I want to be on a horse that will be strong late and have clear air from the home turn, and for me, that horse is 3 Multaja (Bet Now: $2.30). Quality mare for James Cummings that resumes, having not raced since the Tatts Tiara where she was at the end of a long Autumn/Winter prep and I think by that stage, she had enough. Two trials leading in have been good, she’ll sit off a very hot speed and have last look.
In the form guide, it says that 1 Easy Eddie (Bet Now: $2.80) has the Blinkers off and on occasions, that reads as a negative, but they were off around this time last year and he was one the form horses in Sydney, so don’t be perturbed by that gear change. He’s a quality sprinter resuming on his home track and while he has to lump 61.5kg fresh, he does have class on his side.
What to do with 6 Charge (Bet Now: $7.50)? He’s got the talent to win, but his racing manners are terrible. Usually he pulls his head off and turns it up. But fresh at Newcastle, he decided to bomb the start by a few lengths and that was the end of him given it was a 900m scamper. 50kg on his back, If you want to back him, I’d be hoping the instructions are to jump and run, because that is when he’s raced best.
Race 6. (16:20) ANZ Bloodstock News Handicap (74) 2130m
I think each way, you can’t go wrong backing 3 Fairlight (Bet Now: $6.00). He had 61kg first up at this track/distance on a bog surface and struggled to pick his feet up for the most part, but the last 75-100m wasn’t too bad at all. He gets firmer footing, which I think he prefers, he won second up last prep and at the double figures, I think he’s really good value and will do me as an each way play.
It’s been a while between drinks for 5 Bajan Gold (Bet Now: $5.50) but I think Chris Waller has him going well. He was one of two desperately unlucky runners over 1900m at Canterbury last time. Badly held up behind tired horses and was never really clear of a pocket despite having something in the locker. J Mac remains on from a soft gate…he’s going well. But you’d need to be a thrill seeker to back him to win.
11 Porky Pies (Bet Now: $8.00) comes into play, especially on rain affected ground. He lapped it up last start at Nowra and bolted up, albeit it was a Class One/Maiden, but he lumped the 59kg and careered away. Gets down to 53kg for this assignment, draws soft, hard fit, in form…yes it’s a significant rise in depth/class, but that win was impressive and he might be the value.
Race 7. (16:55) Justify @ Coolmore Handicap (78) 1400m
Going each way with 7 Final Award (Bet Now: $11.00). Good to see there has been early support for him because his two runs back from a break, to my eye, haven’t been too bad. Just ran out of puff late fresh behind Rock on the Kenso track before going to the Randwick course proper and finding the line okay behind an in form Cuba, who dominated from the front. He is hard fit now from a good gate and Dolan takes the ride.
John Thompson has 1 Cuba (Bet Now: $3.50) in career best form. This bloke has won his past two, both wins seeing him in front and not giving his rivals a look in, the latest coming at Randwick over 1400m just over two weeks ago. The wide gate is no issue as Chris Williams can take his time getting over given there is only the home turn to negotiate and he’ll take some beating once again.
Fascinating runner is 11 Napoleon Solo (Bet Now: $5.50), who returns to racing for Team Snowden as a gelding. He looked to be heading in the right direction as a Queensland Derby contender but the wheels well and truly fell off towards the end and for the most part, it was a disappointing prep. Returns gelded and his recent trial behind Yitai Synergy was very encouraging.
Race 8. (17:30) Frosted @ Darley Handicap (70)
13 Sakura (Bet Now: $3.80) looks a near good thing provided the track plays fair. Definite pass mark for the Godolphin mare first up at Canterbury before going to Hawkesbury where she surged hard late to just miss out on picking up Think It Over, who is above average and a city class type, so that form shouldn’t be dismissed. Hopefully gets three wide cover from the gate and finishes over the top.
1 Bergen (Bet Now: $2.90) did nothing wrong in his first prep and returns to racing. John O’Shea trains this four year old, who won his first three starts in impressive fashion before just failing to make it four when second over the mile here. Was tipped out after that and has trialled well leading in with regular rider Billy Owen to steer and his claim is a big help first up.
The best version of 10 Maroch (Bet Now: $13.00) is certainly good enough to measure up here. Just not sure what to make of his past two after a pretty sharp first up win at Gosford when on speed and proving too good. His last two have been really poor, producing really weak finales each time. He gets Josh Parr to steer from a good gate. His best is good enough. Can he produce it?
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 13 Sakura
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Into The Abyss
LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 3 Fairlight
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 6
Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 6, 11
Leg Three: 1, 7, 9, 11
Leg Four: 13
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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