Racing returns to Rosehill for the first time since the Slipper Carnival this Saturday with Lord Mayors Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (11:40) : Fresh For Kids Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 13 Blonde Intuition (Bet Now: $5.00) is a smart filly for the Waterhouse/Bott stable that debuted 23 days ago at Hawkesbury and was a sharp all the way winner. Will say she had a soft time of it in front but she did sprint when asked for the effort. Has been kept up to the mark with a soft trial last week at Hawkesbury to tick her over.
Big Danger: 12 Virdine (Bet Now: $4.80) is a well bred colt on debut for Godolphin and John O’Shea. He has had two trials to prepare for his first day at the races, the latest coming on April 21 at Warwick Farm where he sat back and though pushed out, he ran on nicely late. Draws the inside gate and should get a nice sit off a genuine tempo.
Long Shot: 5 Ipso Facto (Bet Now: $13.00) is a quality two year old that resumes for the Mark Newnham yard. Ran some pretty good races in his first prep around and behind some quality juveniles, so he has the form on the board as well as a prep under the belt, and the latest trial effort was pretty good to the eye.
Race Two (12:15) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 2) 1200m:
Back Me: 10 O’Lordy (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Danny Williams trained galloper that was backed as if unbeatable first up on his home track at Goulburn, backing him into $3 from around $10 and the plunge was landed as he sprouted wings late from near last to grab his rivals in the last couple of strides. How much improvement is left? The market will tell you, but from what I saw first up, I think he can measure up here.
Big Danger: 8 Lunar Duchess (Bet Now: $3.30) is a talented mare for the Brett Cavanough yard who comes to town for her city debut off the back of a really nice effort over 1280m at Muswellbrook where she tried hard and chased hard but had to settle for a close second to the tearaway leader/winner. This is a pretty weak Highway, and she has upside.
Long Shot: 2 Atlantic Sentinel (Bet Now: $6.50) is somewhat of a Highway veteran given he has had several starts in these races. Yet to win one, but I think he gets a great chance here. Ran three weeks back in a 1200m Highway at Rosehill in a leader dominated affair but he worked home with purpose. He is knocking hard on the door to win one of these races and he does get a great chance here.
Race Three (12:50) : Sydney Markets Foundation Handicap (78) 1800m:
Back Me: 2 Black On Gold (Bet Now: $4.20) is my early QLD Derby pick and I am keen to see what he does here. Showed a brilliant turn of foot to win first up at Newcastle before going to the Randwick mile where he was a complete forgive run, getting badly chopped out near the inside when having something to offer. Up to 1800m is a big tick and he is on his home track.
Big Danger: 4 Siren’s Fury (Bet Now: $8.50) is a talented filly for the in form Jason Coyle yard who will appreciate the rise to 1800m after racing over the mile last time out at Doomben on a leader biased track yet made up a stack of ground to run third to the high class QLD filly Candika. Crying out for further, which she gets here, and is a definite threat.
Long Shot: 8 Travancore (Bet Now: $13.00) is the big query here. The well bred colt only comes off a last start Canberra Class 1/Maiden win, but it was a big win. He was in a horrible spot on the turn and at the top of the straight, but he picked his way through the field and showed an electric turn of foot. That could be the confidence boost he needs to go on with it.
Race Four (13:25) : Freshmark Handicap (76) 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Quick Feet (Bet Now: $7.50) is a pure dry tracker, so if we do get a good track here, she’s on top. Really liked her effort first up over 1200m at Randwick where she was all over the shop on the heavy track but got wide and worked home well late behind stablemate Gibraltar Girl. Second up last time in she placed behind Group l winner Foxplay. Good enough for me.
Big Danger: 4 Calabassas (Bet Now: $6.00) is a talented three year old for Kim Waugh and is much better than what the winning record of one from 11 reads. Comes through the Gibraltar Girl race at Randwick where he had a charmed run near the speed and for the most part looked the winner but just lacked the turn of foot when asked for the effort. Came again on the line but just missed. This looks a great chance for him to win, but he has burnt one too many holes in my pocket to put him on top.
Long Shot: 14 Fifty Ways (Bet Now: $34.00) was a drifter in the market when resuming at Gosford but despite that, I thought he ran a credible race on a track which didn’t appear to suit him at all, but once he balanced up in the straight, he worked home well. Can only improve off that and is a knockout chance for mine at odds.
Race Five (14:05) : Foodbank Handicap (92) 1350m:
Back Me: 8 Roaring To Win (Bet Now: $8.00) is a hard horse to trust but he got a deserved win on the board last time out at Randwick over 1400m, albeit a dead heat win with Moss ‘N’ Dale. He looked disinterested until the last 600m where he got going and savaged the line late. Wouldn’t have my last dollar on him, but he finds a very winnable race.
Big Danger: 7 Careless (Bet Now: $5.00) trialled up well prior to resuming over 1400m at Randwick where he had market support at longer odds but just didn’t quite like the shifty track behind Kellyville Flyer. Goes good second up and races better at Rosehill, plus getting onto a firmer surface will help his cause.
Long Shot: 2 Berry Delicious (Bet Now: $21.00) is the interesting runner here. First up for Jason Coyle after a pretty plain Spring/Summer prep which followed an encouraging Winter campaign. Will say though that she looked sharp in a recent trial win at Warwick Farm and the stable are absolutely low flying. Market watch for sure.
Race Six (14:45) : Everybody’s Body Handicap (72) 1500m:
Back Me: 2 Dreamforce (Bet Now: $7.00) was most unlucky first up at Newcastle before going to the 1400m at Randwick where he looked to be absolutely bolting at the top of the straight, but as soon as he was let down, the wheels started spinning on the wet track. He is a dry tracker and third up, he should be ready now.
Big Danger: Dirty that 4 Chandana (Bet Now: $3.70) didn’t draw a gate. This mare has plenty of ability but she can get a bit camera shy. The blinkers went on last time out at Wyong (Metro) and she absolutely trotted up under Tye Angland. Her confidence is up now and she should go on with it. Barrier is the only negative.
Long Shot: 11 Lar Courbette (Bet Now: $26.00) intrigues me here. Former French galloper making his Australian debut for the Matty Smith yard and I think he appeals at good odds. Best form is over further, but his two trials leading in have been quite good to the eye. Not asked to do much but has gone about his business nicely. Big yard/market watch.
Race Seven (15:25) : Sydney Markets Limited Lord Mayors Cup 2000m:
Back Me: 11 Happy Hannah (Bet Now: $4.40) on top for me here. She has been crying out for a dry track and she finally gets it here. Her three runs this time in have been good but not as good as we know she can produce. 2000m on a dry track is her go I think and if she brings her best here, she’ll take a power of beating.
Big Danger: 3 Allergic (Bet Now: $6.50) has been given a little freshen up since contesting the Chairmans Handicap at Randwick where he ran well but was simply no match for the low flying Big Duke. Trial since was good to the eye, he has class/quality and he does tend to save his best for Rosehill. Leading contender.
Long Shot: 12 Soviet Courage (Bet Now: $51.00) resumed over the Randwick mile a fortnight back and despite that clearly being short of his best distance, I thought he stuck on quite well in defeat behind dominant winner Grand Dreamer. Second up record isn’t great, but I saw enough in the fresh effort to include him here and chuck him in exotics.
Race Eight (16:05) : Toyota Material Handling Handicap (85) 1200m:
Back Me: 11 Torpenhow (Bet Now: $6.00) goes on top for me here in a very open race. Resumes for Godolphin. Had only two runs during the early part of the Spring, the latest coming at Randwick when second to Denpurr. He has had a couple of trials to prepare for his return to racing and he does sprint well fresh.
Big Danger: 3 Untamed Diamond (Bet Now: $5.50) is a quality mare for the Richard Collett who had good market support at odds prior to resuming at Randwick where she did work on speed but looked to travel sweetly throughout and eventually nab Sweet Serendipity on the peg. That mare went on to win a Stakes race, so that form reads well and she has upside.
Long Shot: 12 Balmain Boy (Bet Now: $19.00) is a four year old that resumes for the Les Bridge stable. He is probably the best horse in the race in terms of ability/potential, but he just does so much wrong and probably lacks the killer instinct to win. Not the best first up record and no trials, but he definitely has the class/quality to threaten.
Race Nine (16:45) : Your Local Greengrocer Handicap (78) 1100m:
Back Me: 4 Bonny O’Reilly (Bet Now: $3.10) is a talented mare first up for Bjorn Baker and I think she is the way to go here. Really came of age in the Summer with a couple of very good wins, including a win here when given a 12/10 by Avdulla. Trials leading in have been outstanding to the eye and she flies fresh.
Big Danger: 14 In Times Of War (Bet Now: $4.50) is a talented filly for Chris Waller who is knocking down the door to win a race and I think she gets her chance here. Both runs this time in have come at Canterbury and both times she has looked the winner for most of the straight but just hasn’t attacked the line. Back on her home track and perhaps with cover, she’ll be more effective.
Long Shot: 10 Rose Of Man (Bet Now: $14.00) can be a hard mare to trust, but on her best form, she is right up to these. Ran over 1000m at Randwick last time out and closed off okay late in the piece without really threatening when fifth to the high class mare Nieta. Handles all conditions, but I think firmer footing will help her, and she loves Rosehill.
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BEST BET: Race Nine Number 4 Bonny O’Reilly
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 11 Happy Hannah
VALUE: Race Four Number 3 Quick Feet
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 6, 11, 17
Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 7, 11, 12
Leg Three: 1, 3, 9, 11, 12
Leg Four: 4, 14
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