Eight races will be run and won at Ascot this Saturday, with good depth right across the board. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (14:13) : The Rotary Club Of Perth Plate 1200m:
Back Me: 4 Art Series (Bet Now: $2.00) looks the safe way to go in the opener here. This daughter of Sebring resumed over this track/distance last Wednesday where she was backed as if she was Black Caviar and got the job done, albeit narrowly. Should only improve off that and Pike sticks. Looks the way to go here.
Big Danger: 2 Vital Dancer (Bet Now: $2.30) was kept safe in the market when debuting in a five horse field down the straight at Pinjarra and he proved too nippy for his rivals in a pretty strong win. Can only see improvement from that and rates highly.
Long Shot: 3 Monash (Bet Now: $34.00) is a Commands colt on debut for the Paul Jordan yard. He has had four trials to prepare for his first start at the races and he has steadily got better each time he has stepped out. Not the strongest two year old race going around, so I think he represents value.
Race Two: Freo Group Handicap 1600m:
Back Me: 6 Jackpot Prince (Bet Now: $41.00) on top for me here. He looked a good thing on paper when racing a couple of Sundays back on Narrogin Cup Day and ran accordingly, bolting up and spacing his rivals. Think he’s looking for further, so 1700m back to 1600m is the issue, but I’ll trust the stable.
Big Danger: 7 Reveille (Bet Now: $2.60) was backed as if unbeatable when racing over this track/distance last Wednesday but she just got a tad too far back in the run when finishing second. Looks ready to go here against the better class horses and rates highly.
Long Shot: 5 Elegant Blast (Bet Now: $14.00) is loaded with potential but she just is struggling to put it all together in recent times. Ran over 1400m here a fortnight back where she had the charmed run behind the tempo and couldn’t come on behind Key To Fame, who franked the form by winning last Saturday. On her best form, she’s right in this.
Race Three: Neometals Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 3 Snow Lord (Bet Now: $3.60) looks the standout here. Talented three year old for Team Williams who has been given a month freshen up since racing over this track/distance where Pike gave him a lovely steer just off the pace and dashed right away when asked for the effort. Back to his own age here, he should take some beating.
Big Danger: 6 Trademark (Bet Now: $4.60) did a mighty job first up off a 14 month spell when racing over 1100m here three weeks back where he sat off the speed and tried hard all the way but had to settle for second to Next Generation. The query is that he may race flat second up off a long break, but the extra week between runs may help.
Long Shot: 7 Kramden (Bet Now: $26.00) resumed against the older horses at this track/distance last Wednesday where he sat off the speed and tried hard but just lacked match fitness/killer punch when third to Star Lightning. Should only improve off that and he is back to his own age now. Looms as a knockout hope.
Race Four: Ramelius Resources Trophy (72+) 2200m:
Back Me: 2 Pushin’s Shapes (Bet Now: $2.80) has really turned the corner in recent times for the Ben Pearce yard. Was known as a non winner since his two year old season but he has turn the corner this prep. Had confident market support in the Narrogin Cup and didn’t let his supporters down with a dominant win. 2200m is different gravy, but I think he will handle it.
Big Danger: 10 Sunset Superman (Bet Now: $12.00) is a horse in good form for the Brett Pope stable off the back of a really good effort a couple of weeks back in the WA Cup where he fought on strongly to run second to the classy Zarantz. Back 1000m in trip in the space of two weeks is the obvious query, but he has the form on the board.
Long Shot: 1 Dark Musket (Bet Now: $8.00) looks a knockout chance at odds here. On the quick back up after racing over the mile here last Saturday where he sat back in the run and just lacked the turn of foot. Up to 2200m is a big tick for this horse, he has upside, fresh legs and on his best form, he should go close.
Race Five: The St Vincent De Paul Society WA Handicap (1MW) 1000m:
Back Me: 1 Remember Berlin (Bet Now: $2.35) looks the clear way to go here and is one of the best programs on the card. He did a remarkable job to win here a fortnight given he bungled the start and settled last in the run but came with a brilliant finishing burst nearer the inside to claim the win. If he jumps cleanly, he’ll get the win.
Big Danger: 2 Star Lightning (Bet Now: $17.00) is a veteran who is racing so well at the moment for the Durrant/Miller camp. She ran over this track/distance last Wednesday where she never really looked like winning but she chased hard the final 100m and grabbed victory in the last stride. Just needs lucky from the tricky draw to go close.
Long Shot: 8 Cataplexic (Bet Now: $11.00) is a sparingly raced mare who resumed over this track/distance a fortnight back in a pretty hot race and was far from disgraced I thought when running fourth to the well above average three year old Snow Lord. Had no trials leading in, so she should only improve off that and she has shown ability in recent times.
Race Six: Creating New Destinies Handicap (1MW) 1500m:
Back Me: 8 Bevel (Bet Now: $6.00) is a four year old who is putting together a nice little record and has the hard fitness under the belt. Toughed it out strongly to win on Easter Monday at York before racing here last Wednesday where he was ridden a treat by Pike and duly got the win. He can go right on with it here.
Big Danger: 10 By Decree (Bet Now: $18.00) hasn’t won for a little while but she finds a very winnable race here and is a live threat. Ran over the mile here a fortnight back where she settled near the speed and just couldn’t quite get the job done when fourth to Bollywood Blitz. That was her first run in three weeks, so perhaps she has upside.
Long Shot: 2 The Cobbla (Bet Now: $9.00) is a talented galloper who should be forgiven for his last start failure over 1400m here three weeks back where he got back off the speed and couldn’t come on at all behind Settlers Creek. He is much better than that and is looking for the mile I think, so on his best form, he’s a knockout chance.
Race Seven: Commit To Change Handicap (66+) 1800m:
Back Me: 2 Senso (Bet Now: $4.80) is only third up here, with upside, so if the top tip is off his game, then Senso could well be the horse to beat. Ran over 1400m here last Saturday where he got off the pace and was outsped before the turn, but picked up late and was very good through the line behind Key To Fame. Up in trip is a big tick and should take some holding out.
Big Danger: 5 Bergio (Bet Now: $2.80) does look the key threat now with the scratchings. He ran over this track/distance last Wednesday where he was given a peach of a steer by Pike just off the speed and the horse pounced for quite a dominant win. He is a horse who is absolutely low flying at the moment and rates highly.
Long Shot: 10 Black Freda (Bet Now: $15.00) is building up a nice little record for Bunbury trainer Gary Hitchcock. Ran on Narrogin Cup Day over 1700m where he got a mile back in the run but came with a well timed finish to win in the shadows of the post. The run prior over the mile here was very good and Autier remains on.
Race Eight: Passages Resource Centre Handicap (72+) 1200m:
Back Me: Race of the day for mine. Landed with 2 State Solicitor (Bet Now: $1.55). High class animal for Team Williams who is first up here after a sensational Summer Carnival, which ended with an eye catching effort behind Takedown in the Winterbottom. Lark Hill trial win was outstanding, and all things being equal, he’s the one to beat.
Big Danger: 8 Just Act Natural (Bet Now: $7.50) bounced back to his brilliant best last time out on Good Friday at this track/distance where he jumped cleanly to lead his rivals quite comfortably before booting clear and spanking his rivals. Smith goes back on and he rides the horse very well. Major threat for sure.
Long Shot: 11 Run Liam Run (Bet Now: $19.00) resumed in the feature sprint race on Albany Cup Day and did a really good job to get as close as he did given he was back in the ruck and slightly held up but picked his way and savaged the line to run second. Goes really well second up and Parnham is riding as good as anyone nation wide at the moment.
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BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 State Solicitor
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 1 Remember Berlin
VALUE: Race Two Number 6 Jackpot Prince
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1
Leg Two: 2, 6, 7, 8, 10
Leg Three: 2, 5
Leg Four: 2
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