The iconic Warrnambool Carnival wraps up on Wednesday with a nine race program of flat racing, highlighted of course by the Warrnambool Cup and Wangoom Handicap. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Warrnambool Cup 🏆: View the Field for the Warrnambool Cup
Wangoom Handicap 🏆: View the Field for the Wangoom Handicap
Race 1. (12:00) TAB 2YO Handicap 1100m
Potentially tricky draw to overcome but off the recent jumpout win, have to be with 6 Icantoo (Bet Now: $3.20) for Team Corstens. Latest jumpout at Flemington saw her show really good early toe to lead the field and under no real riding, went on to spank her rivals, admittedly not in sharp time, but sometimes just have to trust your eye. Williams on a good lead as well.
4 The Billionaire (Bet Now: $5.00) is a son of Written Tycoon for Anthony Freedman that had jumped out like a good horse prior to his debut at Bendigo and after getting over to lead comfortably, I thought his finale was quite weak and have to mark him down as disappointing. Has since had a jumpout at Flemington and looked good again. Just needs to do it on raceday now.
9 Belle Tiara (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Matty Williams trained Sepoy filly that was unwanted in betting when debuting on Terang Cup Day but I thought she was alright from the back albeit never a winning threat when fourth to Our Playboy, who has franked that form by winning again. Home track, Yendall on, she has room to improve.
Race 2. (12:30) Magic Millions National Sale Hcp 1200m
The market will tell you who wins this race I think. If you watch the April 14 Camperdown jumpout from 8 Kepi Blanc (Bet Now: $8.00), plus keeping in mind Craig Williams is booked to steer, he just wins. He led throughout in that jumpout and looked to travel very sweetly in front, with the Blinkers on, and they come off for race day, so that’s why I think the last 10-15 minutes of betting will tell you if this guy is ready or not.
You can’t ignore anything the Payne/Egan combo is dishing up at the moment so have to respect 7 Street Tough (Bet Now: $3.80), who resumed over 1100m at Geelong and was really warming to the task late in an eye catching resumption behind Written Gem. Noteworthy was friendless in betting despite a good fresh record so interesting to see what the market does with him here.
5 Rolling Moss (Bet Now: $9.50) is one I wouldn’t entirely rule out. On the quick back up after racing last Friday night on the Pakenham Synthetic where she took on four rivals and for mine, she didn’t appear 100% happy on the surface, plus the winner Alfa Oro looks city class. Back on the turf, hard fit and good tick that Dunn sticks.
Race 3. (13:00) VOBIS Gold Strike 1000m
Leaning the way of the Hayes/Dabernig first starter 7 Pocket Goddess (Bet Now: $4.60), a beautifully bred filly on debut. She’s by Written Tycoon out of the Magic Millions winner Karuta Queen. Had a Flemington jumpout on April 24 and looked pretty sharp to my eye in leading throughout, running okay time and doing it with something in hand. Don’t think she has to be a star to win this.
Want to give 2 Chrome Angel (Bet Now: $3.90) another chance. Was big odds on debut at Bendigo but knuckled down strongly to get the job done before contesting The Showdown at Caulfield and on that sticky track, plus drawing wide, she couldn’t get involved. Off the debut performance, think she’s hard to beat here.
4 In Hot Water (Bet Now: $12.00) is a daughter of Headwater for Matty Williams that opened hard in the market prior to debuting on Terang Cup Day where she was tardy to begin with, back near last in the run, and finished off strongly behind Our Playboy, who won at Sandown last Saturday to tick that form off. On her home track and did show early speed in jumpouts.
Race 4. (13:35) Sinclair Wilson BM70 Hcp 1400m
1 Salorsci (Bet Now: $6.50) has had Warrnambool written all over him since the start of the prep. Was good late first up at Bendigo before going to Geelong where he had the suck run behind the speed and closed off well nearer the inside when second to Power O’Hata. He looks like he will eat up 1400m and is well in after the claim for Will Price.
11 Wheal Grace (Bet Now: $3.40) is a Paul Preusker trained mare that was somewhat out of form before going to Geelong over 1400m where she was ridden aggressively in front, running along at a decent clip and just kept going for a strong win. More depth here and not sure those tactics will work, but now she has a win under the belt, keen to see how she goes.
9 Mai Shiny Choice (Bet Now: $8.00) saves her best for Warrnambool, her home track, so keen to see how she goes here off an ordinary run at Caulfield, but in saying that, not sure she was happy on the wet track and did bump into Buffalo River, who looks a Stakes class galloper. Subsequent jumpout at Camperdown was okay, but loves this track and back on firmer footing is a big tick.
Race 5. (14:10) Silvan Ridge 3YO Hcp 1400m
2 Stand To Attention (Bet Now: $8.00) gets the nod for me. Team Corstens trains this three year old, who was an impressive first up winner at Kilmore before going to the VOBIS Dash at Caulfield, remaining at 1100m, when back in the run, never really a winning threat, but did make up ground late. He looks suited up to 1400m, draws to get three wide cover and launch late.
1 Golden Gorge (Bet Now: $4.00) is a Rob Hickmott trained three year old that is around a month between runs since racing over 1400m at Sandown Lakeside when on speed, and really, the ride from Williams won the race. He rode the track to perfection that afternoon and the ride clearly got him home. Think he’ll be more effective here with a more conservative steer.
10 Savaquin (Bet Now: $27.00) is a son of Savabeel for Lindsey Smith that resumes. He had two runs in WA last prep, winning first up at Bunbury over 1400m before stepping up to 2000m there and finishing down the track. Liked his recent Warrnambool jumpout and always have to be on guard with these Lindsey Smith runners, especially at Warrnambool.
Race 6. (14:45) Neville Wilson Series Final 1700m
11 Skyway Star (Bet Now: $6.50) on top. Symon Wilde trained mare who resumed over the mile at Terang when a notable drifter late in betting and while the market got it right, loved the way she found the line late behind Quality Approach, beaten three lengths. Second up record is good. If there is a knock, it’s that Rawiller jumps off to ride an import making his Australian debut.
A huge watch here is clearly 6 Darvin (Bet Now: $8.50), a former French galloper making his Australian debut for the Matty Williams team. His form over there wasn’t too great, but always have to respect these imports and he has looked to get better and better with each jumpout, the latest coming last week at Camperdown. An obvious market watch.
1 Patch Adams (Bet Now: $27.00) is an interesting watch here. Aaron Purcell trains this seven year old, who went jumping last year and might well be heading down that path again in due time, but I thought his resumption at Terang was quite good, warming to the task late behind Te Ata in an eye catching effort. Gets to a more suitable trip, home track, upside, and well in after the claim for an in form Campbell Rawiller.
Race 7. (15:20) Wangoom Handicap 1200m
Going for a bit of value in the shape of 10 Tahitian Dancer (Bet Now: $31.00). The best way to ride this mare I think is stone cold and save her for the last 250-300m, as we saw during her Spring/Summer prep. Ridden a tad too warm in the Bel Esprit and was okay without being great. From the gate, hope she gets dragged back to near last and launches late.
1 Order Of Command (Bet Now: $3.30) has class on his side and that will carry him a long way here. Resumed just under four weeks ago at Caulfield when wide no cover throughout but cruised to the front at the top of the straight and held a safe margin to the line in winning, making an impressive return to the track. Has the weight, but has class and is most effective at 1200m.
9 Miss Iano (Bet Now: $16.00) is a daughter of Equiano for the Mark Webb team that has been pretty good in two runs back from a break. Definite pass mark first up at Caulfield behind Diamond Effort before going to Flemington down the straight when good without much luck late behind straight track specialist Prezado. Up to 1200m is a big tick for her and should be hard fit now.
Race 8. (15:55) Warrnambool Cup 2350m
It’s not a vintage edition of the Cup but hoping some Olly magic can get 6 Sin To Win (Bet Now: $7.50) home. Ran over 2600m at Flemington last time out in what turned out to be such a fast run race and he closed off with real purpose late when second to Haky. I am hoping Inverloch and Too Close The Sun set a strong gallop, so this guy can have last look.
8 Too Close The Sun (Bet Now: $2.90) is the one on the up leading into this race and does fit the profile of recent winners of this event, rising through the grades and coming here in a purple patch. He was outstanding in winning the Terang Cup last time out, leading most of the way and beating them up. This is clearly his hardest test to date, but hard to knock the way he’s going.
2 Ventura Storm (Bet Now: $46.00) isn’t going too bad I think for a race like this. His days of going down the Melbourne Cup path are over and this looks more his right level. Comes through a fast race at Flemington won by Haky and was sound in defeat I thought despite jumping to 2600m from 2000m. Has that hard run under the belt and a dry deck is ideal for him.
Race 9. (16:30) Cally Hotel Hcp 2350m
7 Anna Mae (Bet Now: $11.00) looks the one on the up so I’ll go her way in the get out. Pat Carey trains this mare, who ran over 2400m at Bendigo last time when back in the run off a good speed before getting into her work before the turn and in the straight, really finished off her race with purpose to win and win well. Interesting if she can take advantage of gate one or does she sit back again and launch late.
8 Clementina (Bet Now: $3.90) is a Danny O’Brien trained mare that I had enough of two back when given a 12/10 steer by Olly but she didn’t want to win when third to Jack Regan. Then came back to 2100m and again, Olly produced a gem. This time, the mare had a go and got the win, just. Up in trip again looks idea, hard to beat…personally, couldn’t back her with confidence.
10 Heir To The Throne (Bet Now: $5.00) is going well for Henry Dwyer. He ran over 2400m at Geelong last time out and liked the way he closed off when fourth to a potential Andrew Ramsden contender in Dark Alley, so think that form has to read well for a race like this and that hard 2400m run should hold him in good stead.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Five Number 2 Stand To Attention
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 8 Kepi Blanc
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 10 Tahitian Dancer
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 6, 11
Leg Two: 1, 2, 9, 10, 16
Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 8
Leg Four: 7, 8, 10, 12
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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