6/11/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Doomben

An eight race card has been set down for Doomben this Melbourne Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out 5.5 metres for the entire circuit.

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They have the potential to go nuts in front here. I am going for a speed horse on potential in the shape of 1 Tullio (Bet Now: $4.60). He showed really good promise in his first prep but wanted to get things over and done with too quickly. The Tongue Control Bit goes on to hopefully harness the energy. No trials, but on ability he’s up to these.

2 Pizonie (Bet Now: $1.85) is a tick over six weeks between runs since resuming at the Sunny Coast where she was heavily supported but just did a bit too much work on speed when a narrow third to the flying Defence Missile. Been given time to recover from that gutbuster and is clearly in the mix to win this.

3 Desert Digby (Bet Now: $5.50) is the horse who could get the drop on the speed and have last look. He ran over 1200m here a tick over two weeks back where he did work to get on speed and just folded up in the straight behind Light Up The Room. Back to 1050m and back in depth look two big ticks. Hopefully can take cover.

5 Toucan Sam (Bet Now: $3.00) for me. This son of Tavistock attempted to lead all the way over 1350m at Ipswich last time but just looked to overdo it in front and had nothing left for the straight when beaten by the stablemate Kemsrey. Being by Tavistock, the rise to the mile suits and don’t be surprised to see him ridden with cover.

1 Big Buds (Bet Now: $2.50) is a Damien Butters trained son of Barbados who has the hard miler under the belt. He ran over the mile at the Sunny Coast where he was given a lovely ride by Nathan Thomas but he couldn’t quite finish it off when bloused by Kurumba. The Nose Roll goes on top to make sure he’s genuine and Lloyd takes over.

9 Holbrook (Bet Now: $12.00) has been around the block a few times but this is certainly a race where he could surprise. Son of Ocean Park ran in the Kemsrey race at Ipswich and he just got too far back. Made ground but never threatened. Has run well at 1600m before, and if they can run on from the back, he’s in the mix.

Can’t say I’d be diving into anything here. 2 Rationale (Bet Now: $5.50)on top though for the sake of a tip. He was six weeks between runs when racing over 1350m at Ipswich where he got a touch further back than what most anticipated but he was good late behind a handy one I think in Kemsrey. I think remaining at 1350m the niggle but happy to be with.

12 Joymaker (Bet Now: $2.50) is a Kelly Schweida trained filly who ran fourth in the Frangipani Moon race at Ipswich. She had a good run just off the pace and presented at the right but couldn’t finish off. Doubt she can turn the tables of Guanaba Girl, but that does look the right form race and she should be hard fit now third up.

11 May I Say (Bet Now: $12.00) was a drifter in betting when resuming at Ipswich five weeks ago and on face value, you’d have to say she was pretty poor behind Charway in a race that has produced a winner since. Break between runs, Blinkers Off, Winkers On and Lloyd takes the ride. I’d suggest she’s a market watch.

I want to give 1 Toga Picta (Bet Now: $2.80) another look. Former Godolphin galloper who had his first run for Dianne Murphy at the Sunny Coast and I thought he was okay fresh when fourth to Triple Arrow. Gets the Tongue Tie on so perhaps there were excuses first up. He’s got these covered if he runs to anywhere near his best.

8 Pony Power (Bet Now: $3.60) is a talented filly resuming for the Chris Munce team. This girl hasn’t raced since the Winter Carnival where she contested blacktype races and while outclassed she was far from disgraced. Resumes without a trial but has gate one, Lloyd steers and first up at 1200m tells me she’s forward enough.

Can the Schweida/Orman combo continue their purple patch with 9 Hardly Touched (Bet Now: $8.00)? Impressive first up win at the Gold Coast before going to the Sunny Coast where she ran on well late behind a potential blacktype horse in Tipping. That form reads well and third up, she should be hard fit ready to go.

I’ll take a chance on 10 Rains Aplenty (Bet Now: $9.50), who is first up for John Zielke. This colt contested some decent enough races during the Autumn and ran well for the most part. Looked well enough to my eye in a trial last week and from an inside gate, Hellyer should land in a decent spot just near the speed.

3 New Horizons (Bet Now: $5.00) has really turned the corner in his career since joining the Chris Meagher team. Six weeks between runs since sitting just behind the speed at Lismore and though probably getting the staggers late, he clung on. Like him back to 1200m, fresh, and should do no work from the gate.

7 Few Too Many (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Ben Ahrens trained son of Captain Sonador who is five weeks between runs since racing over 1200m at Ipswich where he sat on speed under Anthony Allen and gave a really good kick but was pipped near the peg by Phabeni. Hopefully can take a sit from gate one and prove dangerous.

10 Kemsrey (Bet Now: $4.80) for me. Tony Gollan has a handy mare on his hands here and I think she’ll love the rise to 1600m. She was back and wide when racing over 1350m at Ipswich and despite being under pressure well before the turn, she kept finding under Lloyd and proved too good. Can sit closer in the run from gate one and Lloyd sticks.

6 Kurumba (Bet Now: $14.00) had been bursting to win a maiden for a while for Desleigh Forster and it finally came around last start at the Sunny Coast when finishing best out wide to score in a maiden which looked to have depth to it. Might get a fraction back from the tricky gate but he will be strong late.

The 1650m suit 9 Ponytales (Bet Now: $4.40), a stablemate of Kemsrey. Ran over 1350m last time at Ipswich and for mine I thought she was pretty plain behind Arterial but that was her first run in three weeks so perhaps there is room for improvement and I think up to the mile will suit this daughter of Captain Sonador.

Jump/run/win please 6 Fionnlagh (Bet Now: $4.40). Ben Currie trains this gelding, who is over six weeks between runs since copping far too much pressure in front last time on his home track at Toowoomba and he felt the pinch late when a narrow third to Proof Perfect. Gate one, expecting him to lead, roll along and give a sight.

10 Takes Time (Bet Now: $4.00) is a handy son of Dylan Thomas for Lindsay Gough who ran over 1000m at the Sunny Coast last time and I thought his run was a beauty, closing off with real purpose to run a a narrow fourth to Voulait. Form has already been franked and with a hot tempo, he’ll get his chance to launch late.

4 Muddy Rope (Bet Now: $10.00) can win this with the right run. Chris Anderson trains this gelding, who ran at the Ipswich midweeks last time and I thought he did a pretty good job in defeat given he was wide no cover for the trip but stuck on really well in defeat when third to Ahwahneechee. Has had no luck in both runs at Doomben, so disregard the track stats. He can win.

If there is no second up syndrome, 7 Rancho Montoya (Bet Now: $4.80) is the one to beat. Quality animal for Stuart Kendrick who resumed on his home track at the Sunny Coast, his first run in near nine months, and ran a mighty race in defeat when beaten narrowly by Ecker Road. Beautifully in at the weights and has class/quality.

2 Impasse (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Sepoy gelding for Chris Waller who hasn’t raced for over six weeks since scoring a sharp win at the Sunny Coast under a lovely ride from Michael McNab, defying a notable betting drift. Tick over trial at the Gold Coast last week was quite good and he should get a lovely run from the draw.

13 Subsolar (Bet Now: $71.00) is a daughter of Pendragon for the Chris Anderson team who resumed last Sunday on her home track at the Sunny Coast and looked in need of the run but was far from disgraced behind a good one in Stanley Park. Has a good second up record. Likely gives away a start but should be strong late.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 10 Kemsrey

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 10 Guanaba Girl

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 10 Rains Aplenty

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 7, 10

Leg Two: 10

Leg Three: 1, 4, 6, 10

Leg Four: 2, 7, 10, 13

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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