An absolute ripping card has been assembled for Randwick this Saturday, where the feature race is the $250,000 Group ll Chelmsford Stakes (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:40pm) : TAB Rewards Handicap (83) 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Chris Waller to kick off the program on a winning note IMO in the shape of Loophole (Best Odds: $4.80), who was given a Jimmy Cassidy special to get the job done over this track/distance last time out, getting lifted late and beating home Artibai. This race looks no harder, so he is the clear horse to beat.
Big Danger: Forget Astronomos (Best Odds: $2.80) went around last time out over 1500m at Rosehill given the race was dominated by leader and eventual winner Dylan’s Rojo, who was gifted the lead and kicked on too well. Up to 2000m suits Astronomos and two back he scored a very impressive win at this track/distance.
Roughie: Orion Love (Best Odds: $6.50) seems to be loving life under the care of French trainer Louis Baudron. The mare ran in the Premier’s Cup Prelude at Rosehill last start and almost got the job done, but was beaten in a three/four way photo finish and had to settle for third to Beyond Thankful. This looks much easier and she should prove hard to beat.
Race Two (1:15pm) : LUCRF Jockeys Trust Handicap (80) 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Farolitos (Best Odds: $4.40) ran over 1350m at Rosehill three weeks back and stuck to the task gamely when fifth to future Stakes winner Start Wondering, beaten 2.5L. He scored a dominant win second up last time in before running strong races behind the top tip, as well as recent Group l performer Hi World. He can improve sharply here.
Big Danger: Mr One Eleven (Best Odds: $4.80) was kept safe in betting when resuming at Rosehill three weeks back, and he almost got the job done, but couldn’t quite peg the leader Dylan’s Rojo, who had a dream in front and kicked on too strongly. He hasn’t won for a long time, but the run at Rosehill was just too good to ignore and he is a serious threat.
Roughie: Scratch Me Lucky (Best Odds: $15.00) is racing in very consistent fashion of late without winning. He ran last Saturday at Rosehill and closed off well late to finish fourth to Berrimilla, beaten 2.5L. 18 months ago he ran second to Peggy Jean in the Sires over 1400m here, so he has the talent to win. It’s just a matter of where his confidence is at.
Race Three (1:50pm) : J B Cummings AM Tribute Ming Dynasty Quality 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Voilier (Best Odds: $6.00) has been excellent in three runs back from a spell, including a strong second last time out behind Shards where he was given every possible hope by Blake Shinn but couldn’t quite hold out the Godolphin runner. Given that horse has more upside, I doubt Voilier can turn the tables, but he should go close.
Big Danger: Cannyescent (Best Odds: $3.40) was the desperately unlucky runner in the Up And Coming. He was going to burst through and loom as a winning chance, but the run got cut out and got badly checked, losing all momentum and all chance of winning. With normal luck, he definitely runs second and probably challenges Shards as the winner, so he is right in this race.
Roughie: Metallic Crown (Best Odds: $7.50) was unwanted in betting last Wednesday at Warwick Farm, but he travelled beautifully in the lead and never looked like getting beat, winning by three lengths and doing it pretty comfortably. Harder here, but his form lines are excellent and is certainly capable of beating this, especially with Pumper riding.
Race Four (2:30pm) : Coolmore Furious Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: I’m going to stick solid with Lake Geneva (Best Odds: $9.00). She took care of her maiden in easy style when resuming at Hawkesbury before running in the Silver Shadow (1200m) here and I thought she had her chance when third to all the way winner Speak Fondly, but I will put that down to the second up syndrome. Third up now, so she should be cherry ripe fitness wise and looks one of the hardest to beat. I am leaving out English from the tips, because I thought her second trial was just fair compared to her eye catching first trial.
Big Danger: As I said prior to the Silver Shadow , the horse at Randwick that has come on the most from the Autumn has been Speak Fondly (Best Odds: $2.30) and she justified that with a dominant win in the feature. She should only improve from that outing, looks the leader again and should once again prove very tough to run down.
Roughie: Perignon (Best Odds: $6.50) resumes here for Gerald Ryan after a pretty strong Autumn prep, which ended with a close second to Speak Fondly in the Magic Night. Hasn’t raced since then, but her recent trial at Rosehill was outstanding where she led everywhere bar the post but was under triple wraps from Hugh Bowman.
Race Five (3:05pm) : Concorde Stakes 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really keen here on the Joe Pride trainer Craftiness (Best Odds: $4.80). He had three runs in the Autumn, starting off with a win at Doomben before a second to Our Boy Malachi in the Hall Mark. He then ran at Rosehill and was simply dreadful when last to You’ll Never. He trialled last Friday at Warwick Farm and looked awesome when a narrow second to stablemate Ball Of Muscle. He should take some beating here.
Big Danger: Atmospherical (Best Odds: $4.80) is a classy mare who resumes here for David Pfieffer. She ran very well during the Autumn without winning, highlighted by her last run when a fast finishing third to That’s A Good Idea in the Ortensia during the Scone Carnival. She also looked great in a Warwick Farm trial last Friday and she flies when produced fresh.
Roughie: The watch horse here IMO is Group l performer Aeronautical (Best Odds: $4.80), who is now with David Payne after formerly being with Lionel Cohen. You look back through his form and it is outstanding for a race like this, with horse like Lumosty and Brazen Beau included. No trials, but gate one and McDonald on board, which is a good lead.
Race Six (3:45pm) : Tattersalls Club Chelmsford Stakes 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: It’s really hard to tip against Hartnell (Best Odds: $3.60) here. He created a huge impression in his first Australian prep, highlighted by a win in the BMW (2400m). He is being aimed towards the Melbourne Cup, and he looks to be set for a big Spring based on his two trials here, where he has just looked all class, and has trialled similar to that of Fiorente around this time in 2013 before he went on to win the Melbourne Cup, and at this stage, I am tipping Hartnell to do the same.
Big Danger: Pornichet (Best Odds: $5.00) was great in defeat when resuming in the Warwick Stakes (1400m), sitting outside speedster Zaratone before putting that horse away but was grabbed late by Royal Descent, who had the charmed run just off the strong tempo. He is a two time second up winner, and though his grand final is the Cox Plate, he should take a power of beating here.
Roughie: Beaten Up (Best Odds: $19.00) had trialled really well prior to resuming in the Warwick Stakes, and I thought he was fantastic in running fourth, and only the bob of the head beat him for third spot. He looks to have come back in great order, and looks one of the more forward Chris Waller runners engaged here, so he bears close watching here in a cracking race.
Race Seven (4:25pm) : Tattersalls Club Tramway Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Classy mare Lucia Valentina (Best Odds: $6.00) resumes here for Kris Lees. Despite not winning during the Autumn, she was very good in defeat I thought, with strong efforts in the Ranvet and Queen Elizabeth the highlights. She went beautifully in her latest trial at Newcastle and she produced a barnstorming finish to win this race last year.
Big Danger: Big watch on Hauraki (Best Odds: $7.50) here for Godolphin. He really came of age towards the end of the Autumn, which finished with a narrow second to Mongolian Khan in the Derby. His trials leading up to the first up run here have been fantastic, and the stable has publicly stated their confidence in this horse for the prep.
Roughie: Queensland star Rudy (Best Odds: $13.00) immediately comes to Sydney after just one run back home. He resumed in a 1350m Open Handicap at Doomben a couple of weeks back and he was excellent in defeat given he was wide no cover for the entire trip in a race dominated by those on speed. If the track is soft or worse, he comes right into the mix and his two Randwick runs have resulted in a Villiers win and a fourth in the Doncaster.
Race Eight (5:05pm) : TAB Supports Jockey Trust Handicap (85) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Bohemian Lily (Best Odds: $3.60) is a classy mare that resumes here for Gai after a stellar Winter prep in Queensland, highlighted by sparkling all the way win in the Doomben Roses, and she would have gone around as a leading chance in the Oaks had she not been injured. Recent trials have been pretty good and first up last time in she ran very strongly to finish second.
Roughie: Bold Circle (Best Odds: $4.60) is a definite winning chance here. His two runs back from a break have been excellent, including last start over this track/distance where he was given every chance from Bossy, but was nabbed in the last hop by Forget. He should be ready to show his best now, and despite more depth here, he should be right in the thick of things.
Roughie: Ballet Suite (Best Odds: $6.50) is a talented mare that also resumes after a Brisbane Winter prep, which ended with a disappointing seventh to stablemate Winx in the Oaks. Her two trials leading up to her return to racing have been quite solid, and I like the fact she resumes at 1400m. Definitely one to watch.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Hartnell
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 7 Craftiness
VALUE: Race Four Number 3 Lake Geneva
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 14, 16
Leg Three: 3, 6, 7, 8, 13, 16
Leg Four: Field
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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