A strong program will be run and won at Moonee Valley this Saturday, where it is Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes Day. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:25pm) : Quest Moonee Valley Handicap 1500m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with the beautifully bred colt for the Hayes/Dabernig team, Sohool (Best Odds: $6.50). The son of Street Cry out of former classy mare Rewaaya. His two career runs to date have been on the Pakenham Synthetic, starting off with a slick debut win before a third against the older horses. Back to his own age now, and up to 1500m should suit.
Big Danger: Euston Road (Best Odds: $7.00) has had two career outings also, both on the Geelong Synthetic. He fourth on debut, in an eye catching effort, before storming home to win the next start. He looks to have a fair bit of upside and looms as a definite winning chance.
Roughie: Lightning Bell (Best Odds: $9.00) comes straight to town after winning his maiden last time out at Echuca where he looked quite impressive I thought, coming home hard from well back to win with a bit of ease on the line. Darren Weir doesn’t send them straight to town unless he thinks they can perform.
Race Two (12:55pm) : Jeep Handicap (84) 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: I’m going to stick very solid with Letmedowngently (Best Odds: $7.00). She was enormous in defeat last time out when racing over this track/distance, where she copped serious heat on speed for the entire trip yet fought on so well to finish a close up third to The United States. Drops big time in class and is back to her own sex. Should be cherry ripe fitness wise now and looks one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: Spirit Of Heaven (Best Odds: $7.50) is a talented mare for Peter Moody who hasn’t been too far away in recent times, including last start at Caulfield where she made up good ground late to finish third to stablemate Dig A Pony, who ran well at Stakes level last week at Caulfield. Spirit Of Heaven has run well here in the past and should be right in the finish.
Roughie: Holy Cow (Best Odds: $10.00) has been given a seven week freshen up after resuming over this track/distance on July 15 where she got too far back on a day where it was an advantage to be near the speed or the rail. Her two career runs have come at this track, so she is a definite chance here IMO provided she gets the right trip, and she should from the good gate.
Race Three (1:30pm) : Ranvet Handicap (78) 1500m: Form Guide
Back Me: Strong Hand (Best Odds: $3.40) is a very good galloper for Darren Weir who has won his past four starts in gritty fashion, including last start over the mile here a couple of weeks back, having a lovely run near the speed and holding on grimly. Harder here, but he is rock hard fit and he knows where the post is.
Big Danger: Leveraction (Best Odds: $6.50) attempted to lead all the way in that race mentioned above, and for a few strides he looked as though he was going to kick on and win, but Strong Hand dived and proved too good. Gets a slight weight pull on Strong Hand. Negative is the wide gate, but if he can get over and lead, he’ll take some stopping.
Roughie: Bikila (Best Odds: $15.00) is the interesting runner. Pat Carey doesn’t mind throwing them in the deep end, and he did that in the Autumn where he ran in the Australian Derby, and he was far from disgraced when fourth to Mongolian Khan. He will be better with the run under the belt, but he could run home strongly late and perhaps sneak a place.
Race Four (2:10pm) : 1PRINT Craig Opie Cup 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: The United States (Best Odds: $3.80) has been well backed to win the Caulfield Cup and rightfully so after a barnstorming win here over the mile a fortnight back, coming home from near last and just savaging the line to win in the last stride. He will be better when he steps up in trip, but gee that win was sharp and his record at the Valley is pretty good.
Big Danger: Abbasso (Best Odds: $7.50) was given every chance by Ollie last time out and on the turn he looked the winner, but he couldn’t quite finish the race off and had to settle for a last stride loss at the hands of The United States. He does get a significant weight pull on that horse now, and gets every chance from gate one. He can definitely turn the tables.
Roughie: Chance To Dance (Best Odds: $18.00) is a former Irish galloper who is now with Lloyd Williams. He had one run in the Autumn, on Anzac Day at Flemington when working home well to finish sixth to The Bowler. He looks a Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup type, and that first up run in the Autumn was eye catching, so it will be interesting to see what he does here.
Race Five (2:45pm) : Telstra Phonewords Atlantic Jewel Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Stay With Me (Best Odds: $4.80) is a beautifully bred filly by Street Cry out of former champion filly Miss Finland. She resumed a few weeks back on the Pakenham Synthetic and though she wasn’t 100% on the track, she was just far too good for her rivals. A win here, and her price tag goes up ten fold, so this is an important race, and I am confident she can get the job done. Big watch also on Pasadena Girl, who has looked sharp at the jump outs. Just little query on her winning at 1200m first up around the Valley.
Big Danger: Badawiya (Best Odds: $7.00) resumed with a solid second at Sale before taking care of an average lot a couple of weeks back in a Murtoa maiden, but it was a really good confidence boost and one that could see her go right on with it here. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Haybah (Best Odds: $51.00) is a quality filly for the Hayes/Dabernig yard who resumed over 1000m here and didn’t do a great deal when finishing last to Petitis Filou, who came out and won the Quezette last weekend. No Petits Filous here, so the depth isn’t as strong, and on her best form, Haybah can certainly bounce back into the winners list.
Race Six (3:25pm) : The Cup Club Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back me: Chivalry (Best Odds: $8.50) has been an absolute nightmare to follow throughout his entire career after such great early promise. He charged home to win first up in the Spring last year, before he didn’t really fire a shot afterwards. He resumes here, but he is another who has caught the eye at the Flemington jump outs, and he does tend to save his best when produced fresh.
Big Danger: Galaxy Pegasus (Best Odds: $5.50) is a talented sprinter who resumes here for the Hayes/Dabernig yard. He was outclassed in the William Reid in the Autumn, but he looks capable of performing better at that level after impressive jump outs at Flemington. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Solsay (Best Odds: $26.00) is an absolute bomb when racing over this track/distance, and he proved that last start when whacking away strongly near the inside to run third to tearaway winner Churchill Dancer, and though beaten five lengths, his effort was alright IMO. Drops down to a half kilo over the minimum now, and horses who are specialists at the Valley are advantaged.
Race Seven (4:05pm) : Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really keen here on The Cleaner (Best Odds: $6.50). He was fantastic when resuming in the P.B. Lawrence when attempting to lead all the way, and he looked home with about 150m to go, but was grabbed in the last stride by the old warrior Mourinho. The Cleaner is one of the better gallopers in recent times when it comes to racing at the Valley, and he won this race in superb fashion last year.
Big Danger: Mourinho (Best Odds: $5.50) does look the logical threat. He is another Moonee Valley specialist who was given a peach from Vlad Duric to get the job done in the P.B. Lawrence, grabbing The Cleaner in the last couple of strides. He ran third to Dissident at Group l level second up last time in, and he looks very well placed here.
Roughie: Foreteller (Best Odds: $14.00) comes immediately to Melbourne after resuming in the Warwick Stakes (1400m) a couple of weeks back where he made up good ground late to finish seventh to stablemate Royal Descent. His form at the Valley is fantastic, including last years Cox Plate where he was unlucky behind Adelaide. He can beat these with the right trip.
Race Eight (4:45pm) : Mitty’s McEwen Stakes 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Chautauqua (Best Odds: $2.50) picks himself here. He is currently Australia’s best sprinter who resumes here for another tilt at the VRC Sprint Classic. He last raced in the T J Smith Stakes (1200m) and produced the win of the entire Sydney Autumn Carnival IMO, overcoming a dynamite on pace bias to charge home from last and get the win. His jump out last Friday was excellent, and despite making his Valley debut, he should be prove far too good for this lot. Big watch on Sistonic also, who has been trialling like a star.
Roughie: Flamberge (Best Odds: $5.00) resumes here for Peter Moody after scoring a somewhat surprising win in the Goodwood when not really fancied. It’s hard seeing him as a Group l winner, but he is, and he did look sharp in a recent Caulfield jump out. He has won three from five fresh and his class will carry him a long way towards victory.
Big Danger: Kuro (Best Odds: $7.00) resumes under the care of Team Freedman after formerly being with the Joe Pride yard. He performed well in two runs during the Brisbane Winter, with a win in the Mick Dittman followed by a close second to Ball Of Muscle. He also had a jump out last Friday at Flemington and looked outstanding also. Big watch here.
Race Nine (5:20pm) : Follow the @WillHillWolf Handicap 2040m: Form Guide
Roughie: Almoonqith (Best Odds: $6.00) made his Australian debut over the mile here and was a real eye catcher I thought when a close up fifth to The United States, beaten just over a length. Up in trip, fitter, claim for an in form apprentice and will get every chance from gate one.
Big Danger: Former Perth star Ihtsahymn (Best Odds: $7.50) has had two runs in Melbourne for Patrick Payne, and he has been quite solid at each outing. He ran fourth to in form galloper Charmed Harmony at Flemington before coming here and working home well to finish just over two lengths away from The United States. This looks a bit easier, and the step up in trip will be perfect.
Roughie: Prizum (Best Odds: $14.00) is a consistent type who is never far away from the action. He ran over this track/distance last time out and worked home well late to finish a close up third to Shenzhou Steeds, beaten just over a length. Similar field here, but he tumbles in weight after the claim for Pat Moloney.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Chautauqua
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 5 The Cleaner
VALUE: Race Two Number 2 Letmedowngently
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 6, 8, 9, 10, 15
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 12
Leg Four: 1, 3, 7, 11, 16
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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