Brisbane racing heads to Doomben this Saturday for a strong program. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:10pm) : Boston Salon Handicap (75) 1050m: Form Guide
Back Me: Hard to go past Young Fun (Best Odds: $5.00) here. He was given a beaut steer from Luke Dittman to get the job done here last time out over this track/distance, beating home an in form galloper in Sony Legend. This looks no harder, and on current form, he is the clear horse to beat.
Roughie: Passatorio (Best Odds: $4.40) worked home strongly from near last to finish seventh to Young Fun, beaten just over three lengths. That was his first run in four months, so I thought there was merit in the performance. There should be natural improvement here, and if the speed is on, he’ll be thundering home better than anything else here.
Big Danger: State Of Wealth (Best Odds: $10.00) resumed over this track/distance three weeks back and copped serious heat on speed, so I thought he did a great job to finish fourth to Treatmelikealady, who had the charmed run behind it. Provided he hasn’t taken too much harm from that run, and perhaps with an easier time on speed here, he can threaten.
Race Two (12:48pm) : UMS Handicap (75) 1050m: Form Guide
Back Me: Epsilon (Best Odds: $6.50) scored a gritty all the way win over 1110m here three weeks back where she toughed it out very strongly after getting pressure in front yet fended off her rivals to win well. Harder here, but with the rail out here, leaders are advantaged and back to 1050m should suit her perfectly in what looks a very even race.
Big Danger: Red Diamonds (Best Odds: $9.00) is a talented mare that resumes for Toby Edmonds. She hasn’t raced since early June where she led all the way to win over 1200m at Ipswich, and though she didn’t beat much, the manner in which she did was solid. Given a quiet time in a recent Gold Coast trial, but she has placed in all three first up attempts and loves racing at this distance range.
Roughie: Lilly The Filly (Best Odds: $13.00) is on the quick back up after racing over 900m last Sunday at the Gold Coast and it was the win of the day given she was last with 200m to go yet unleashed a powerful finishing burst to get the win in the last couple of strides. Harder here, but the speed will be on, like last Sunday, and she has a booming finish on her.
Race Three (1:23pm) : Madison Cleaning Handicap (75) 2200m: Form Guide
Back Me: More Energy (Best Odds: $2.90) could not have been ridden any better last start over this track/distance and it really deserved a win, but the horse was simply outstayed by Honey Toast, who kicked on very strongly to get the job done. Little query on the horse running the trip out here, but he is in form and is the class factor.
Big Danger: Outstrip (Best Odds: $15.00) is just bursting to win a race, but he just can’t quite crack it. Pengelly gave him every chance last start at the Sunshine Coast but he didn’t finish it off and had to settle for third. Maybe he was on the worst part of the track. Rises in depth, but he drops 6.5kg from last start and will get a very soft trip from the gate.
Roughie: Solo Saga (Best Odds: $17.00) could be another improver here at odds. Remember during his three year old year he ran in the Australian Derby behind Criterion, and though he finished tailed off last, he was a starter. His four runs this time in have been alright, and I thought there was merit in his last start effort behind Lauterbrunnen when making up ground late. Up in trip looks ideal and he is another who has a stack of upside.
Race Four (2:00pm) : Pure Jali Handicap 1615m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with Bodega Negra (Best Odds: $9.00). He can be very frustrating to follow given his racing pattern of getting back to last and running on, and that style cost him again last start when he flashed home from last to run a close up fourth to Epic. Gets the weight pull on that horse now, and the small field is very suitable again, so he really gets his chance here.
Big Danger: Lock’s Legend (Best Odds: $2.40) was smashed in betting to win just under a month back over this track/distance when sitting off the speed and he just powered clear to win with a fair bit of ease. That was his third up run from a spell, so he should be ready now to show his best. He looks the main threat here given that upside factor.
Roughie: Double Impact (Best Odds: $11.00) ran over 1350m here a couple of weeks and was well backed to win the race at odds. He didn’t win, but he did make up ground in a leader dominated race to finish fifth to Cum Dividend, beaten just over three lengths. Up to the mile suits this horse and he is the knockout runner here at good odds.
Race Five (2:38pm) : St Margaret’s P&F Association Handicap (1MW) 1615m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with Lauterbrunnen (Best Odds: $4.00). Colless rode him an absolute treat to win over this track/distance a couple of weeks back, sitting well off the pace before timing his run to absolute perfection, getting the job done impressively. This doesn’t look any harder, and he isn’t harshly treated at the wights.
Big Danger: Tints (Best Odds: $5.50) was a bit unlucky I thought in running second to Lauterbrunnen. She got held up a touch on the turn and couldn’t build up momentum unlike the eventual winner. With better luck here, she can turn the tables for sure.
Roughie: Fixation (Best Odds: $6.00) is too frustrating to follow as a punter, but you can forgive him I think for his failure behind Lauterbrunnen given he got chopped out badly in the straight and lost all momentum. A bit like Tints, he can win with better luck.
Race Six (3:17pm) : St Margaret’s Anglican Girls School Handicap (Class 6) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Treatmelikealady (Best Odds: $7.00) was backed as if unbeatable when resuming here a couple of weeks b ack, and she was just dominant in winning, aided by a good draw and a lovely ride from Mick Cahill. Harder here, but the first up run was impressive and too good to ignore.
Big Danger: Pinch River (Best Odds: $3.80) was once known as a pure speedster who could barely run beyond 1000m, but there was plenty to like about her first up effort over this track/distance where the bob of the head beat her when a very narrow second to Lesley’s Choice. Second up last time in he ran fifth to Nostradamus in the Gold Coast Guineas, which is really good form for a race like this.
Roughie: Friendly Dragon (Best Odds: $34.00) is a talented horse who resumes here for Les Ross after somewhat of a frustrating prep in the Summer/Autumn. He normally needs the run under the belt, but he draws well and Jeff Lloyd is riding in great form.
Race Seven (3:57pm) : Programmed Property Services Handicap 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: Keen here on the old boy Steel Zip (Best Odds: $4.20), who is really enjoying his racing at the moment. He showed a sharp turn of foot to break a long run of outs two back, before running here over his track/distance and running a game second to Cum Dividend given that horse had a picnic in front. I’m confident he can turn the tables.
Big Danger: Cum Dvidend (Best Odds: $7.50) does look the logical threat. Gun apprentice Jimmy Orman could not have ridden the horse any better last time out. He led and at a very nice tempo, and just had to kick on and win, which is what happened. It’ll be harder here, but he is in form and will prove tough to run down.
Roughie: Kempelly (Best Odds: $13.00) is a talented Toowoomba galloper who resumed over 1200m here three weeks back and worked home well late to run a close up third to in form galloper The Storeman. Fitter, up in trip suits and he will be strong late, plus he has a tidy second up record.
Race Eight (4:37pm) : Barry Nilsson Lawyers Handicap 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: I’m going to take a chance with Vaulting Ambition (Best Odds: $8.50), who created a big impression on debut last Saturday at the Sunshine Coast where he savaged the line from a midfield spot on the turn and won with a fair bit of ease, and the time was the fastest out of three races run over the distance on the same program, and that is always a good guide. He looks well above average.
Big Danger: Saga Of The Storm (Best Odds: $4.50) is a talented filly who resumed over 1110m here a couple of weeks back and worked home strongly to finish second to impressive all the way winner Blue Desert Moon. She is nominated for the Thousand Guineas and Caulfield Classic, so she will appreciate the rise in trip, she’s fitter, and she has some really good form lines around her.
Roughie: Craiglea Wandoo (Best Odds: $8.50) smashed up his stablemates last time out at Rockhampton, winning by nine lengths under a hold, but remember, he did beat up stablemates. Much, much harder here, but that win was surely confidence boosting and his form prior to that in town was excellent, so he is certainly not out of place here.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Steel Zip
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Treatmelikealady
VALUE: Race Eight Number 11 Vaulting Ambition
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 6, 10, 13
Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 8, 9
Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 6, 9
Leg Four: 3, 5, 7, 8, 11
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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