The Rosehill part of the Sydney Autumn Carnival concludes this Saturday with an absolute cracking afternoon of racing, probably second to Derby Day in terms of the top class racing assembled. Peter Snowden will look to end his time with Darley in the best way possible with a second Golden Slipper win courtesy of superstar filly Earthquake, who has a stranglehold on betting. The reputations of Fiorente and It’s A Dundeel go on the line when they clash for round two this Autumn in the BMW (2400m), while the fillies tune up for the Oaks when they contest the Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m).
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Race One (12:35) : Schweppervescence Quality (T L Baillieu Handicap) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Be mindful that the rail is out for this meeting because in recent meetings, when the rail has been out, leaders or those close to the inside have dominated. It was hard not to be impressed by the spank job Veuvelicious (Best Odds: $6.50) did to her rivals last start at Sportingbet Park, leading comfortably and winning with ridiculous ease, and running decent time. Heading towards the Sires, and she has more upside than this bunch.
Big Danger: Hampton Court (Best Odds: $11.00) had a picnic in front at Newcastle and found plenty when asked by Tommy Berry and when challenged by Tashbeeh. Should get a gun run either in front or in the box seat and looms as the threat.
Roughie: Golden Slipper emergency Scratch Me Lucky (Best Odds: $6.00) showed a sharp turn of foot to win two back at Canterbury then got caught wide in the Todman and battled on late for sixth. Handles the wet, and the form around him reads very well for this.
Race Two (13:10) : Neville Sellwood Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Well if ever Moriarty (Best Odds: $4.40) is going to win, this is it. Four runs this time in against the best of the best have been excellent, and was only beaten just under four lengths in the Ranvet by Silent Achiever. In terms of his handicap rating, he is just thrown here at the weights, and provided he can handle the rain affected surface, he should prove too good for these.
Big Danger: Entirely Platinum (Best Odds: $4.20) has been fantastic in three runs this time in, winning on each occasion in impressive fashion. He was left in front a bit earlier than anticipated in the Sky High, but he handled it easily. Ticks all the boxes, and is a danger if the top tip is off his game.
Roughie: Less Is More (Best Odds: $26.00) is starting to get out to an ideal distance now after two runs back from a spell. Worked home well behind Terravista in the Liverpool Cup then was last in a slowly run Ajax yet worked to the line nicely again behind a future Group l winner in Messene. He loves the sting out of the track and should be close to peak fitness.
Race Three (13:45) : Sebring Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Going to stick solid with That’s A Good Idea (Best Odds: $3.20) because he just looks so well placed here in terms of the speed. Was unlucky last start here when he missed the kick before picking himself up to run third to Kencella. With a clean jump, he’ll lead, comfortably, and on the minimum, he will take a power of beating.
Big Danger: I know both Tony Gollan and Hugh Bowman were quite disappointed with the performance of Temple Of Boom (Best Odds: $12.00) in the Galaxy last week given how well he ran prior and that he looked well placed in the Group l, so it’s interesting that he is on the quick back up and tumbles in grade. On class alone, he’ll go close to winning.
Roughie: Lilliburlero (Best Odds: $8.00) was a top first up winner in the Triscay before being gunned down in the last few strides by A Time For Julia in the Roy Higgins Tribute Stakes where she led. Better ridden off the pace, but should punch up and get the dream sit off That’s A Good Idea.
Race Four (14:20) : Emancipation Stakes 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: On weights, Catkins (Best Odds: $1.60) looks the way to go. I thought she was outstanding in defeat when third in the Coolmore. Pumper on Steps In Time made sure the others, in particular Catkins, earned their day out, and Catkins just couldn’t sprint with the big weight, but she stuck on very well. Remains at the track/distance, drops in depth, drops 2kg in weight, loves the wet, I think she wins.
Big Danger: Floria (Best Odds: $11.00) was good first up in the Tressady at Flemington, then forget she went around at the Valley given she got dragged back by the tiring leader and just had nowhere to go. Her best runs have come racing clockwise, fitter and doesn’t mind the track conditions.
Roughie: Diamond Drille (Best Odds: $15.00) was well backed in the Aspiration at odds and she didn’t let her supporters down, coming with a well timed run to nail her rivals close to home. Coming back to 1500m is no concern, drawn the paint and is a mare in winning form.
Race Five (15:00) : Tulloch Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value in Shikra (Best Odds: $11.00). I keep remembering last Spring that trainer Peter Snowden saying that he rated this horse as highly as Complacent, and we know how good that horse is. Shikra failed to deliver in the Spring, but he has been quite impressive at his past two starts, winning at Hawkesbury and Kensington respectively. He’ll have no issue with the 2000m and is bred to swim.
Big Danger: Pheidon (Best Odds: $4.80) was given an absolute gem by Oliver to win the Alister Clark under the Moonee Valley nights. That form has held up well with the second horse, Cadillac Mountain, running an eye catcher last week in the Guineas. Should press forward and prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Big watch on the one down the bottom, Rodway (Best Odds: $101.00), the half brother of Makybe Diva. He bolted in first up at Kilmore, then took on the older horses at the Valley and had no luck early, getting caught wide with no cover, before pressing forward and going down by over a length. Big leap in grade, but he has the breeding, and has his share of ability, along with plenty of upside.
Race Six (15:40) : The BMW 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: Taking on It’s A Dundeel and sticking with the proven top liner in open company, Fiorente (Best Odds: $3.50). Forget he went around in the Ranvet I think. He was forced to sit wide for the first bit of the race, then was asked to roll forward, which isn’t his go. He needs to be ridden off the pace and have the last crack at them. If that eventuates, he’ll go very close to winning. Taking on the kiwi just due to the fact he was disappointing in the Ranvet after being given the perfect ride by Macca.
Big Danger: Don’t underestimate Silent Achiever (Best Odds: $4.10) here. She might have won the Ranvet at good odds, but her win was massive considering she was ridden well out of her comfort zone and did all the donkey work to wear down the leader. Should have won this race last year, and I think if Fiorente is off his game, she will redeem herself from 12 months ago.
Roughie: The knockout horse here at odds is Voleuse De Coeurs (Best Odds: $7.00). Her run in the Australian Cup was very good considering she isn’t comfortable on firm ground and was first up. Up to 2400m, fitter, cut out of the ground and getting back to racing clockwise…I think $13 is overs.
Race Seven (16:20) : Vinery Stud Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Leaning towards Solicit (Best Odds: $5.00) ahead of Zanbagh, simply because the rail is out four metres and that it should suit horses near the speed. Solicit put together two brilliant wins at the Flemington 1400m, then had no luck at the Valley when getting held up and going back to the fence, which was the no go zone. Should lead these, roll along and take some beating.
Big Danger: Zanbagh (Best Odds: $6.50) is the clear danger, and probably would be on top had the rail not been out. Since these two clashed in the Spring, I think Zanbagh has improved that little bit more than Solicit, as we saw when she won the Keith Nolan in dominant fashion. Up to 2000m and a rain affected surface should see her prove very hard to beat.
Roughie: Big watch on the kiwi filly Rising Romance (Best Odds: $5.50). She is trained by Donna and Dean Logan, who trained Habibi to place in this race last year behind Norzita. Rising Romance had her last start in the NZ Derby, same as Habibi. I don’t think there is a filly in this race who has the class like Norzita does, so based on that, I think she is a great chance.
Race Eight (17:00) : Golden Slipper 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: If Earthquake (Best Odds: $2.90) turns up with four legs and a clean set of lungs, she wins. Simple as that. She has the rest of the fillies covered, and the fillies appear better than the colts and geldings. In each run, she has either been ridden out of her comfort zone or done something wrong in the run. With normal luck, she should blitz these.
Big Danger: Mossfun (Best Odds: $4.20) looks the clear second pick. Her win in the Silver Slipper was simply breathtaking, and she was excellent in defeat behind Earthquake in the Reisling. If the rain comes, she will prove a serious threat.
Roughie: Unencumbered (Best Odds: $17.00) looks the best of the boys here. His golden run during the Summer was outstanding, and his Magic Millions win was dominant. Forget he went around in the Silver Slipper because he floundered in the wet, then looked to have a bit of a belly on him in the mounting yard prior to the Todman yet ran a cracker to run second to Ghibellines. Given what is happening with regular rider Nathan Berry, he will be the sentimental favourite going into the race, but form wise, he is certainly capable.
Race Nine (17:40) : Doncaster Prelude 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet across Australia this weekend for me in Weary (Best Odds: $4.60). He is ready to win now after having two strong runs on Australian soil. He was excellent in a slowly run Ajax, coming from well back to run second to Messene. Three starts back this horse was beaten four lengths by Moonlight Cloud, the only horse to have come close to beating Black Caviar. His international rating compares well George Ryder winner Gordon Lord Byron, and he is taking on a fairly average lot. If he is to perform at Group l level in Australia, he has to win this and I am quite confident he will.
Big Danger: Strawberry Boy (Best Odds: $10.00) was given no peace in front in the Newcastle Newmarket yet kicked away in the straight to only be nutted late by Mecir. Bred to swim, Nash is unbeaten on him, drawn to lead…looms as the main threat.
Roughie: Diametric (Best Odds: $15.00) was backed as if unbeatable in the Sky High, but he performed quite the show in the mounting yard and ran his race there. Looked to travel well in the run, but when he was asked for the supreme effort, he had nothing left. He is the big watch horse here second up.
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Best Bet: Race Nine Number 3 Weary (Best Odds: $3.80)
Next Best: Race Two Number 1 Moriarty (Best Odds: $4.40)
Best Roughie: Race Five Number 8 Shikra (Best Odds: $11.00)
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 5, 9, 10, 11
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 13
Leg Three: 9
Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 15, 16
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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