Group l racing continues at Randwick this Saturday with the $1 Million Girvan Waugh Randwuck Guineas (1600m) featuring a star studded field, headed up by star colt Press Statement. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:20) : Reisling Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Calliope (Best Odds: $3.00) was sent to Melbourne by Godolphin in search of Blue Diamond, but it was clear in the Prelude behind Samara Dancer that she didn’t handle the track. Returns to the scene of her breathtaking win in the Gimcrack in the Spring, and she should take some beating here.
Big Danger: 3 Honesty Prevails (Best Odds: $1.90) was well backed when debuting in the Widden and was outstanding in winning, spanking her rivals by a space and ran the time to back up the margin. She gives the impression she will be better off as a three year old, but her natural talent is brilliant enough to beat these.
Roughie: 4 French Fern (Best Odds: $26.00) was specked at odds when winning last time out at Canterbury, leading all the way and beating home a handy type in Detective. Nearly two months between runs, and no trials, but there has been market support for her.
Race Two (13:00) : UNSW Todman Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Capitalist (Best Odds: $1.30) looks the goods here. He hasn’t raced since scoring one of the most dominant wins in the history of the Magic Millions Classic (1200m), sitting on speed and just clearing right out. Form out of that race has been a tad suspect, but gee his recent trial here behind star filly English was outstanding. He has these covered IMO.
Big Danger: 5 Weatherly (Best Odds: $4.00) comes through the Talindert at Flemington a fortnight back where he was awfully impressive in winning, albeit he was in the fast lane near the outside fence. He has done all his racing in Victoria so we will get a good guide here as to how strong the Victorian juvenile form really is, but he looks very good.
Roughie: 3 Tessera (Best Odds: $10.00) is unbeaten in two outings for Godolphin. He comes off a fighting on speed win in the Canonbury where he fended off Defcon and Mount Panorama, who both placed behind Astern in the Silver Slipper, so on that, it’s hard seeing Tessera beating home the stablemate, but he is a winner and a real professional.
Race Three (13:35): Girvan Waugh Randwick City Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: 6 Allergic (Best Odds: $3.00) was a real unlucky runner in the Parramatta Cup (1900m) when second to stablemate Arab Dawn given he got little room in the straight and was given a somewhat of a negative ride. Returns back to Randwick, where he spanked his rivals the start prior before last, fast run 2000m suits and he will be strong late.
Big Danger: 9 Libran (Best Odds: $3.50) looks the perfect type for the Sydney Cup and will get better as the distances increase. He also ran in the Parramatta Cup and perhaps could have won himself had he received better luck in the straight. Bigger surroundings of Randwick will suit him nicely and he has a stack of upside left in the locket.
Roughie: 8 Maurus (Best Odds: $5.50) resumed over 1500m at Rosehill a couple of weeks back and worked home strongly despite a slow tempo when second to Himalaya Dream in what was a really good effort. He’ll love the step up to 2000m, added fitness and despite a rise in grade, he should prove tough to hold out late in the piece.
Race Four (14:10) : City Ford Group Aspiration Quality 1600m:
Back Me: 5 Heavens Above (Best Odds: $3.50) was bursting to win a race and she did that in grand style last time out over 1400m here against the boys, aided by a lovely ride from Tye Angland. She has performed well at Group l level previously, and now that she has that winning feeling again, the time is right to tackle Stakes company once again.
Big Danger: 6 Alegria (Best Odds: $5.50) was five weeks between runs when racing over this track/distance three weeks back where she tried hard but couldn’t quite overhaul the in form type Testashadow. There are question marks as to how genuine she is, but on her day, she is a very good mare and should improve fitness, and the drop back to her own sex suits.
Roughie: 7 Mary Lou (Best Odds: $12.00) broke through for a well deserved win last Wednesday at Rosehill over 1400m, holding out McCreery in a good finish. Her form prior was very good and should improve fitness wise.
Race Five (14:50) : Canterbury Stakes 1300m:
Back Me: 3 Our Boy Malachi (Best Odds: $3.40) should lead these comfortably, so on that basis, he goes on top. His return to racing in the Expressway (1200m) was high class with a dominant all the way win, beating home Solicit, who has since run second to Winx and then won a Stakes race here, breaking a track record. Looks a slight risk at 1300m, but he will lead easily and give them something to chase.
Big Danger: 6 First Seal (Best Odds: $2.80) was awesome in winning her first up run for nearly a year when winning the Millie Fox Stakes (1300m) a couple of weeks back at Rosehill, aided by a cool, patient ride from regular rider Blake Shinn. A similar ride here will see her prove hard to beat, and she showed last start that she doesn’t need a tempo to let down.
Roughie: 7 Holler (Best Odds: $8.00) is the three year old on the rise for Godolphin who comes to Sydney after two runs in Melbourne, winning the Australia Stakes (1200m) first up against the older horses before getting his heart broken by Mahuta in a fast run Autumn Stakes (1400m). It’ll be interesting to see how he is ridden, whether or not he puts pressure on Our Boy Malachi and forces the issue. Whatever the case, he is too good to dismiss.
Race Six (15:30) : Fireball Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 8 Kangarilla Joy (Best Odds: $7.00) drops a bit in grade after contesting the Light Fingers (1200m) three weeks back where she looked home but was nailed in the last stride by quality filly Perignon. Back to 1100m looks perfect and will love a fast run race. Looks the one to beat for sure in a quality three year old race.
Big Danger: 10 Egyptian Symbol (Best Odds: $6.00) should just about be 6 from 6, with her last three runs resulting in no luck at all but she still filled a place. Loved her recent trial behind Ball Of Muscles, flies fresh and should take a power of beating despite bigger fish to fry.
Roughie: 1 Takedown (Best Odds: $14.00) had four runs during the Spring and while he didn’t win, he ran some tidy races against some quality gallopers, including Exosphere and Mahuta. Recent Rosehill trial win was very impressive and despite not being well weighted, he can sprint well fresh.
Race Seven (16:10) : Girvan Waugh Randwick Guineas 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Press Statement (Best Odds: $1.40) just picks himself here. He was simply breathtaking first up in the Hobartville Stakes (1400m), sitting in the perfect spot behind the tempo before peeling out and letting down powerfully over the concluding stages to win easily. Upside, fitter, extra trip, class…how does he lose?
Big Danger: 7 Montaigne (Best Odds: $10.00) was a real eye catcher in the Hobartville, closing off strongly to run third, beaten 3.6L. You have to remember he is doing all this in his first prep so the query there is that the bubble will burst sooner rather than later, but while he is racing well, he has to be included, and he looks the lone threat from the Hobartville to Press Statement here.
Roughie: 10 Balmain Boy (Best Odds: $81.00) is eligible for the midweeks, but trainer Les Bridge is continuing to put him in the deep end. He ran in the Hobartville was better than it looked. He was left a touch flatfooted in the straight, but his last 150m was excellent. Looks to be ticking over beautifully for something like the Rosehill Guineas/Derby, and he will be very strong at the end of a Randwick mile.
Race Eight (16:50) : Hyland Race Colours Challenge Stakes 1000m:
Back Me: 9 Speak Fondly (Best Odds: $6.00) is a Group l winning mare that resumes for Gai. She could not have trialled any better when winning here on February 19, winning comfortably under little pressure. She resumed over 1200m here last time in and was outstanding in winning. Looks to be going better this time around.
Big Danger: 1 Ball Of Muscle (Best Odds: $5.50) is an absolute ripper for Joe Pride who doesn’t know how to run a bad race…obviously, he hasn’t missed a start in 17 starts. Recent trial win was excellent and despite this being a 1000m race, he does look as though he’ll get a soft lead.
Roughie: 6 Felines (Best Odds: $13.00) is the hard fit mare that is looking for some blacktype for Kris Lees after winning her last starts over this track/distance. She doesn’t want it further than 1000m, but she is fit, in form, down in the weights and should be around the mark somewhere.
Race Nine (17:30): Chi-X Australia Wenona Girl Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 2 I’ve Got The Looks (Best Odds: $5.50) comes through the Millie Fox (1300m) where she ran a game third to star mare First Seal. She loomed to win near the inside but didn’t quite see the 1300m out. Better suited at 1200m, hard fit, drops in class and should take some beating IMO.
Big Danger: 5 Private Secretary (Best Odds: $4.40) produced one of the runs of the meeting on Magic Millions Day at the Gold Coast when making up a stack of ground from the back to run second to I Am Zelady. Rises a bit in depth here, and is two months between runs with no trials, but she is very talented and deserves some blacktype.
Roughie: I was/am very tempted to put 13 Lucky Can Be (Best Odds: $21.00) on top. Her first up run at Canterbury was an absolute ripper with no luck at all in the straight when appearing to be bolting. Had she got a clear run, she wins I think. Obvious rise in grade here, but is trained on the track, down in the weights and she does have form around some handy types. Great winning chance at good odds.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Press Statement
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 6 Allergic
VALUE: Race Eight Number 9 Speak Fondly
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10
Leg Two: 1
Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Leg Four: 2, 5, 7, 13
$50 Investment= 29.76% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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