One of the bigger racedays on the Tassie racing calendar is Hobart Cup Day and it comes around this Sunday, with the 2400m feature highlighting a monster ten race card. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out three metres from the 1150m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.
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Race One (12:00) : Wolf Blass Maiden 1100m:
Back Me: 9 Gold Phoenix (Best Odds: $2.80) is a filly on debut for the Brunton stable and bears close watching here. She has had two trials to prepare for her first day at the races and they have been run in quicker time than the trials stablemate No Money No Honey has contested. That filly was also nominated for this but stable sticks with the first starter.
Big Danger: 6 Global Princess (Best Odds: $4.20) was a short priced elect when racing a couple of Wednesday nights back at Launceston where she attempted to lead all the way but was disappointing in the straight when only managing fifth to Owens. No depth to this field at all, and the first starter does create intrigue, but she has the raced brigade will and truly covered. Threat for sure.
Long Shot: 4 Cocoshanae (Best Odds: $15.00) is a four year old mare on debut for the Kelvin Hamilton yard. She has trialled three times in readiness for her debut, the latest coming at Longford when fifth to Aerosport. In a thin race, she could well bob up and I certainly will be including her in exotics.
Race Two (12:35) : Rosevears Waterfront Tavern Maiden 1400m:
Back Me: 11 No Money No Honey (Best Odds: $2.15) looks one of the better bets on the program. This daughter of Host resumes for the Brunton yard. She debuted over 1200m at Launceston in late November where she got back in the run and closed off nicely late behind Fragment in a maiden where there has been three subsequent winners. Loved what I have seen from her at the trials and she should be taking care of this lot.
Big Danger: 7 Gee Gees Free Hero (Best Odds: $2.50) ran over 1100m here two weeks back where Froggy had the gelding perched up near the speed and he looked to travel well but he couldn’t quite finish it off and paddled late when fourth to Newts. I think perhaps with a more cold steer, he will be more effective and I think the 1400m will suit if that eventuates.
Long Shot: 3 Country Way (Best Odds: $35.00) is a former Victorian that makes his Tassie debut for the Edwin Batt yard. Trained by Paul Rocke in Victoria, he was okay without setting the world on fire in three career outings, but each of those races have been okay as a form reference. Trialled well behind No Money No Honey and I’ll watch the market closely and see what it does with him.
Race Three (13:10) : Crown Lager Handicap (62) 2100m:
Back Me: 2 Big Pegg (Best Odds: $5.50) on top for me here. She ran over 2100m at Launceston last Wednesday night where she was given a lovely steer just off the pace by Catania and presented at the right time to wear them down. Gets the services of Stephanie Thornton, who rode a treble at Launceston on Wednesday night, so that jockey change is no disadvantage, especially with the claim.
Big Danger: 4 Ocean Star (Best Odds: $4.80) ran over this trip at Launceston last Wednesday night where she got back in the run and came wide with her run but she couldn’t finish off behind Big Pegg. Needs to improve a bit to knock this field but the big key in her favour is getting Avdulla steering. Big improver.
Long Shot: 11 Sh’Bourne Dylaca (Best Odds: $6.00) is a mare who should appreciate the step up in trip. She ran over the mile here on January 22 where she got back in the run and though taking her time to wind up, she was strong late. Should relish the 2100m here and the good lead is that Froggy remains on.
Race Four (13:50) : Schweppes Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Issawi (Best Odds: $3.30) is a talented sprinter that resumes for the Brunton stable. He raced twice during the Spring, starting off with a five length romp over 1100m here before running fourth at Launceston over 1200m. He looked to trial very well recently here and ran good time for the final 600m. Very good first up record and draws the right part of the track.
Big Danger: 3 Gee Gees Jet (Best Odds: $2.05) has been given a 30 day freshen up since racing at this track/distance where he sat wide no cover for the trip and looked to travel alright in the run but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Trot On Candy. Tends to race well on the fresh side and should get the suck run behind the speed.
Long Shot: 7 Cuban Missile (Best Odds: $21.00) is the despised outsider, but he shouldn’t be ruled out. He put together some really solid efforts prior to New Years Day at Longford where he sat near the speed and was given a lovely ride from Barr to get a narrow but strong win. Gets a nice weight pull on the three above him and I could certainly entertain him as a winning hope.
Race Five (14:25) : Priceline Elwick Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 4 Derasa (Best Odds: $2.00) for me here. I was on her when she resumed in the Alfa Bowl at Launceston and it was left to a lovely ride from off the pace for the daughter of Squamosa to get the job done. She should only have upside off that and rates highly for me here.
Big Danger: 3 Geegee Trendsetter (Best Odds: $7.00) also comes through the Alfa Bowl where he just had no luck in the run, getting stuck wide no cover on speed for the entire trip, but to his credit he stuck on pretty well behind Derasa. Just needs a bit better luck here to go close to turning the tables.
Long Shot: 7 Foreeva (Best Odds: $26.00) debuted here on January 22 and I thought she was quite good in defeat behind Gee Gees Queenie given she got back in the run and made up good ground late behind that runner who was short in the betting. Has upside off that for sure and draws a nice gate.
Race Six (15:00) : Luxbet Thomas Lyons Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Admiral (Best Odds: $2.35) is the current pride and joy of Tassie racing and he should take care of them here. Did a mighty job to win the Luxbet last time out given he was 1600 back to 1200 and sat outside a genuine speed. Only better suited up to 1400m and is perfectly placed at WFA. Just wins again.
Big Danger: 2 Hellova Street (Best Odds: $3.00) is the number two seed to Admiral and while I doubt he can beat him, he should run second. He hasn’t raced for 29 days since racing over the Caulfield mile where he chased a genuine speed and fought on strongly when second to Burning Front, who has franked the form. Trial since was very good and I’m sure he will give the local champ a very good race.
Long Shot: 3 Streetwise Savoire (Best Odds: $26.00) is a very good galloper that is back in Tassie for the Brunton after a successful stint on the mainland under Patrick Payne. He had his first run back here in the Luxbet behind Admiral where he got back in the run and just couldn’t get involved. Doubt he will turn the tables but draws okay and loves Hobart.
Race Seven (15:35) : Les Lees Strutt Stakes 2100m:
Back Me: Pretty confident that 4 Blue Ocean (Best Odds: $9.50) can get the job done here. This Team Freedman trained filly bolted up at Kilmore over the mile two back before going to the 2040m at the Valley where she got held up a touch between runners but once she found clear, she worked home strongly behind Wheal Leisure. That looks the right form for this.
Big Danger: 5 Triband (Best Odds: $15.00) had been knocking on the door to break her maiden status and she finally did it, and did it in style, when racing over 2050m at Moe last time out when ridden with confidence/arrogance by Mick Dee and drew right away to win with a bit of ease. She looks an out and out stayer and Dee remains on from an inside draw. Definite threat.
Long Shot: 9 Wyuna (Best Odds: $17.00) looks one of the better chances of the local runners here. She comes through the Tassie Guineas where she got back to near last in the run and finished off her race with real purpose when running fifth to Hot Dipped. She will eat up the 2100m here and has upside left for sure.
Race Eight (16:10) : Luxbet Hobart Cup 2400m:
Back Me: UBET opened 7 Big Duke (Best Odds: $1.75) $2.80 to win this race.. How on earth did that occur? He is an odds on pop, and to my eye, the good thing of good things. He is a very promising galloper for Darren Weir who overcame a few difficulties to win last time out at the Valley and was very strong to the line, so the 2400m here is a tick, and he gets Avdulla steering
Big Danger: 4 Cool Chap (Best Odds: $4.20) ran second to Big Duke in that race at Moonee Valley and he was given every chance in the run by apprentice Boris Thornton. He gave the horse a 12/10 steer and it did deserve the win, but he was no match for the up and comer. McEvoy is back on, and he does ride the horse very well. If there is to be an upset, Cool Chap will cause it.
Long Shot: 2 Lucky Lucky Lucky (Best Odds: $16.00) could be the value runner here. He ran over 2500m at Flemington a tick over three weeks back where he got back in the run and finished his race off strongly when fifth to Double Bluff. He is the horse with upside here and stable rarely travel without success.
Race Nine (16:46) : Winning Edge Handicap (Class 1) 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Banca Boy (Best Odds: $2.70) looks the one to beat here. Hr an a couple of Wednesday nights back over 1400m at Launceston where he was a drifter late in the market and that fluc was proven correct given he didn’t win but he was a touch unlucky given he was in restricted room yet still found the line well. Draws out so no bad luck I think and I’m confident he can get the job done.
Big Danger: 2 Winston Wolfe (Best Odds: $3.40) is a former Patrick Payne galloper that is having his first run for the Brunton camp and we know the record Brunton has with these former Payne gallopers. This bloke raced last week at Seymour where he got back in the run and couldn’t get involved behind Sneferu. Draws out and stable rider picks this one over Banca Boy.
Long Shot: 12 Slinky Malinky (Best Odds: $14.00) ran over 1200m under the lights of Launceston last Wednesday night where she was completely unwanted in betting but despite her long price, she ran a really good race when finding the line near the rail to run fifth to Commanding Dash, beaten a length. Draws to sit off the pace and I think she is a great outside player here.
Race Ten (17:25) : Elwick Functions & Events Handicap (72) 1400m:
Back Me: 5 Hyperbole (Best Odds: $4.60) hasn’t raced for 30 days since racing over the mile here where he was a drifter in the market and they got it spot on as he didn’t show his usual dash when third to White Turf, who has gone right on with it since. Tends to race quite well on the fresh side and McCoull rides the horse very well.
Big Danger: 1 Cheryl’s Horse (Best Odds: $11.00) attempted to lead all the way over 1600m here on January 22 where he ran along at a decent clip and gave a good kick but was no match late for White Turf, and that form is easy to tie in obviously with Hyperbole. I think he will be better off with cover and Thornton and her claim is a big tick.
Long Shot: 14 Downwind (Best Odds: $41.00) is the knockout runner here at a price. She ran over 1200m at Launceston last Wednesday night where she got back to near last in the run and worked home well near the inside when sixth to Tara’s Gem. Draws the right part of the track here and she will love the step up to 1400m.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 7 Big Duke
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Admiral
VALUE: Race Seven Number 4 Blue Ocean
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
Leg Two: 7
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 7, 11, 12
Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 6, 11, 14
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