The Brisbane Summer Carnival continues this Saturday where the feature race is the $100,000 Listed Brisbane Handicap (1640m). The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:49) : Canadian Club Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: Nikitas (Best Odds: $2.50) is the clear watch horse for mine. This Kelso Wood trained son of Snitzel is out of Mine Game, which makes him a half brother to Oaks winner Jameka. She was handy as a two year old, and I am tipping this horse to be the same. Watch market moves.
Big Danger: Another interesting runner is Coming In Hot (Best Odds: $5.00), a first starter for Brent Stanley. No trials leading in, but he is a Magic Millions purchase, so the thought process perhaps is bring him to Queensland and try to get a win to ensure him a start in the $2 Million feature. Another that should be watched market wise.
Roughie: I’m So Epic (Best Odds: $12.00) ran sixth to The Last Kiss, and she was pretty good I thought considering she was back and wide throughout in the run. Was only three lengths away, and while I doubt she can turn the tables, I am sure she will run well again.
Race Two (13:24) : Vogren Optimus Handicap 2220m:
Back Me: Just looks the perfect race for Hudson County (Best Odds: $3.70). He strung together two impressive wins before stepping up to the 2400m at Rosehill last start where he attempted to lead all the way, but was gunned down in the last hop by Jiayuguan. Back in trip is ideal, and the way the track has played in recent times, his racing pattern will be perfect for this.
Big Danger: Perplexity (Best Odds: $4.60) is the form stayer in Brisbane at the moment, winning three on the bounce, and while the margins haven’t been great, he has won, which is all that matters. Hudson County is the clear horse to beat, but one with Perplexity is that he is tough and knows how to win.
Roughie: Kobi Creek (Best Odds: $10.00) comes to town after an outstanding win at the Gold Coast last Saturday over 1800m where he was wide no cover for most of the race, but he just kept finding under pressure and proved too good for his rivals. He is a proven city performer from last prep and he has a stack of upside.
Race Three (13:59) : The Volvo Bus Classic 1640m:
Back Me: Charcuterie (Best Odds: $6.00) for me here. This colt has been a real eye catcher at his last two starts, both resulting in wins, the latest coming over 1400m at the Sunny Coast where he sat back before peeling out and savaging the line for a dominant win. Time looks right now to bring him to town, and this isn’t the strongest 3YO race going around.
Big Danger: Martinelli (Best Odds: $2.80) was originally with Gai Waterhouse before being transferred to Chris Munce where the son of Snitzel has been very impressive in two runs at the Gold Coast, both resulting in dominant wins. Much harder here, but he is well bred and there is a bit to like about him.
Roughie: Stormcraft (Best Odds: $10.00) ran over 1350m here a fortnight back where he got a long way back before working home strongly late to run fourth to the well above average filly Hesitation. Step up to the mile should suit this horse and this is a drop in depth from what he has been facing.
Race Four (14:34) : Origin Jockey Series Heat One (70) 1350m:
Back Me: Despite taking on the older horses, I’m keen on the three year old filly Hesitation (Best Odds: $2.00). She ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and after receiving the perfect sit behind the speed, the Kelso Wood trained filly charged to the line for a good win. Loses nothing with getting top kiwi rider Danielle Johnson on board, and if she can overcome the wide gate, she’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: Cocoa Bar (Best Odds: $6.00) has put together two wins on the board, the latest coming at the Sunny Coast when he just absolutely bolted in, sitting back in the ruck before peeling and the horse just trotted up. Harder here, but Tye Angland jumps on and this is a winnable race if the top tip is off her game.
Roughie: Watling (Best Odds: $7.00) ran over this track/distance three weeks back where he had the charmed run behind the tempo before shoving into the clear and working to the line nicely late when third to Wearing Wings. Draws wide here, which is the query, but he can rattle off a sectional under the right circumstances.
Race Five (15:13) : Shamrock Marketing Handicap (1MW) 1050m:
Back Me: Prince Mayted (Best Odds: $7.50) overcome a wide gate to win quite impressively over the 1110m here a fortnight back, sitting near last in the run before peeling wide and letting down hard. He will do something similar to Gun Case. Get back and charge late.
Big Danger: The drop in grade should suit The Conspirator (Best Odds: $11.00), who has contested Open Handicaps at his past two starts behind Hidden Pearl and Didntcostalot respectively. Hidden Pearl at Flemington during Cup Week while Didntcostalot bolted home in the George Moore last weekend. That’s very good form for a race of this quality.
Roughie: Kudero (Best Odds: $9.00) has been given a seven week freshen up since running on strongly at the Gold Coast behind Prettyfamous, beaten 1.2L. Has done little in six runs on this track, but he can race well fresh and G Boss riding…that factor alone brings the horse into contention.
Race Six (15:53) : Hamilton Hotel RQ Summer Provincial Series (0MW) 1350m:
Back Me: Court’s Star (Best Odds: $8.50) i thought did well first up when he led for a long way before weakening late. He will take a forward position once again and with a bit more fitness on his side i think he will be hard to run down.
Big Danger: Gold Horizon (Best Odds: $8.50) worked home well last time out at Ipswich over 1200m when running third to Dame Destiny. He should take good improvement from that and the stable has been flying with their campaign up north.
Roughie: Hillcrest (Best Odds: $51.00) ran over 1300m at Rockhampton last time out where he got a long way before getting clear and finishing off hard late when fourth to Eljay Atom, beaten just under a length. Fast run here will suit him and he has always promised to run well in town.
Race Seven (16:33) : Bus Supply Partners Just Now Quality 1350m:
Back Me: Going with Slots (Best Odds: $5.00). She is on the back up from last Saturday at Rosehill where she ran an absolute ripping race to run second to I Am Zelady. Carried 58kg there, and gave the winner 3.5kg. Looks well placed here by the stable and should take some beating.
Big Danger: Little Brown Horse (Best Odds: $9.50) let down powerfully from the back to win the Arcade Classic (1200m) first up, and defied the on speed bias in what was an awesome return to racing. She runs well second up, and out of that race she won, she looks the clear horse to follow given there is upside with her.
Roughie: Ms Ma Bella (Best Odds: $19.00) is the interesting runner. Trained by Garnett Taylor, she had won last time in, which was in the Rockhampton Newmarket (1300m) where she finished down the track behind Le Cap. Interesting to note she was heavily backed there, so there was confidence she would run well. Spelled, and a recent trial on her home track at the Sunny Coast was very encouraging.
Race Eight (17:13) : Queensland Bus Industry Council Brisbane Handicap 1640m:
Back Me: Traveston Girl (Best Odds: $3.00) looks the one to beat. The track bias really helped her to win the Recognition last start, leading all the way to win comfortably. If the track continues to play the way it has in recent times, then this mare will take a power of beating and could well be the best bet on the program.
Big Danger: Best Of The Rest (Best Odds: $8.00) was one of the best runs of the beaten brigade in the Recognition when working home from near last to run fourth to Traveston Girl, beaten just under two lengths. If he can somehow sit closer compared to last start, then he can certainly threaten Traveston Girl.
Roughie: Shotover River (Best Odds: $11.00) resumed in the Recognition was quite simply just fabulous I thought when second to Traveston Girl. He normally needs two or three runs to find his best, but given he ran so well fresh, he has to be respected here.
Race Nine (17:53) : Origin Jockey Series Heat 2 (Class 6) 1200m:
Back Me: Casual Choice (Best Odds: $6.00) will appreciate the big drop in class after contesting the Keith Noud over this track/distance three weeks back where he sat wide no cover for the entire trip when finishing down the track behind the greybeard Steel Zip. Draws much better here, and with the rain about, it will just suit him perfectly.
Big Danger: Britalia Kate (Best Odds: $8.00) ran over 1110m here a couple of weeks back where he finished off her race alright late when third to Prince Mayted, who is a leading contender earlier on in the program. Has to overcome a wide gate here, but she loves give in the ground and is getting near peak fitness.
Roughie: Mister Booze (Best Odds: $26.00) resumed in an Open Handicap over 1050m here a couple of weeks back where he wasn’t suited by the slow tempo when finishing midfield behind Stakes winner Mr Favulous. He is a two time winner second up and did bolt up second up last time in.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 5 Slots
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 5 Nikitas
VALUE: Race Nine Number 7 Mister Booze
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 16, 19
Leg Two: 5
Leg Three: 3, 4, 6, 7, 11
Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 7, 10
$50 Investment= 28.57% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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