5/9/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Jolly Beggar Stakes day

A strong nine race card has been assembled for Belmont on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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8 Wardian (Bet Now: $4.20) is running out of chances, but gee this looks such a winnable maiden for her. Has placed in all three career outings, the latest coming over 1200m at Pinjarra where she got off the speed, surged hard late but just missed out on the win. Should eat up 1400m and if she’s within range on the turn, she should be too good.

1 Enduring Moment (Bet Now: $2.45) is bursting to win a maiden for Raquel Williams. Looked like it would come two weeks ago over 1200m here but just got a bit too far back. Loved the way he found the line though, so the rise to 1400m looks ideal and hopefully can sit a pair or two closer in the run.

7 Kinder Kinder (Bet Now: $27.00) can mix her form, but she’s shown enough to suggest she can run a positive race here at odds. Ran in the Northam maiden mentioned above from last Thursday where she was on speed, a slow tempo, so to the eye, she had her chance, but the sit/sprint set up I don’t think is to her liking. Giving her a chance here.

Think 6 Phanta (Bet Now: $13.00) can make a winning debut here in what is not a strong 3YO Saturday race. Son of Gingerbread Man for the Justin Warwick camp that is having start one off the back of a couple of 1000m trials here, and each time he has looked the part and been impressive. If he runs up to the trials, he’ll take some beating.

Don’t think there was any fluke about the debut win of 7 Eliminate (Bet Now: $3.10) at this track/distance last Wednesday. Was completely unwanted in betting as the money came for Billy Ray, but Chris Parnham stayed near the fence, saved the ground and she went through her gears like a nice horse and won quite impressively. If she runs up to that here, she goes close.

Does 1 Starfield Impact (Bet Now: $7.50) run 1200m? This race will be a guide for sure. Just looked in need of the first up over 1000m before racing at that trip again here when looking like she would run second but got the staggers late and had to settle for fourth. Was three weeks between runs, so hopefully there is improvement to come.

Bit of a throw at the stumps here in the shape of 11 Stella Anne (Bet Now: $7.00). Was 1700m back to 1400m when racing here two weeks ago and though held up for a few strides, thought she had her chance when fifth to Comfort Me. Back up in trip I like, Azzopardi takes over and back onto firmer footing, hopefully, should help her cause.

Fitter and up to the mile, can make a case for 8 Brother Paddy (Bet Now: $23.00) to run well here. He resumed over 1400m here last Wednesday when back near last in the run and was working into the race as some sort of threat, but condition just gave out late. Convinced he’s going well and from the inside gate, hopefully can sit closer in the run.

10 Alamont (Bet Now: $10.00) is racing as if he wants 2000m+, so remaining at the mile does seem a little query, but Neville Parnham has him going well. Ran over this track/distance last time out and worked home pretty well I thought when fourth to Freedom By Choice. If this was 2000m, he’d be a good bet. Just not sure about remaining at 1600m, but he’s going well.

I think 2 Lonsdale Lady (Bet Now: $4.40) can win again. 1000 Guineas winner from last season that resumed over 1400m here two weeks ago where she had a sweet sit just behind the speed and McNaught presented her at the right time, producing a good turn of foot and was strong late in winning. Fitter, up to the mile, like her here.

6 Leading Girl (Bet Now: $2.05) certainly has the talent to win, but the Bob Peters contingent in WA since Pike went to Melbourne has been going awful re winners, with around 1 from 12. This girl was a beaten odds on pop when second to Lonsdale Lady in the race mentioned above. Clearly she can win, but I couldn’t back her and can only have her as a key threat.

Back to the mile is interesting with the Jim Taylor trained 4 Black Shadow (Bet Now: $15.00). Ran over 2000m here a fortnight back where he was put into a good spot and was there to win, but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to the in form Montelena. Is this a prep run for something further? Not sure, so watch the market.

Provided there is eight runners, I think 7 Dark Prospect (Bet Now: $21.00) is a good each way gamble. Neville Parnham trained stayer who has been a tick under two years between wins, but despite that run of outs, think he is going well. He ran over 2100m here a couple of Wednesdays back with the 60kg impost and just couldn’t wind up from the back with the weight. Gets good weight relief, hard fit…think he runs a race at odds.

6 Montelena (Bet Now: $1.35) is racing in career best form at the moment, winning three on the bounce, with the latest coming two weeks ago over 2000m when stepping out to a staying trip and was too good for Gunnago, who was good in defeat last Saturday, so the form reads alright. Can she stretch out to 2200m?

4 Dark Musket (Bet Now: $27.00) has eyes on another tilt at a race like the Kalgoorlie Cup or even the Perth Cup so whatever he does here, think he will improve on, but his resumption over the mile here two weeks ago behind Massimo was more than encouraging. If he can use gate to advantage and sit closer in the run, could be dangerous at a price.

4 Money Matters (Bet Now: $2.40) is just reliable that he has to be the safe option here. Adam Durrant trained four year old that has had two runs back from a spell, each time coming at this track/distance. Was there to be beaten last time out but found plenty and class got him home. Lone third up run saw him win and he’s hard fit now.

1 Vital Silver (Bet Now: $3.60) is the class runner of the field and that will carry him a long way here. He hasn’t raced since the William Reid at the Valley when far from disgraced in defeat behind Loving Gaby. Interesting he resumes without a public trial, but can sprint well fresh and even with the 62kg impost, he has to be respected.

Very interesting runner is 3 Belter (Bet Now: $10.00) for the Casey camp. Hasn’t raced since early February when contesting the Scenic Blast when pulling up with excuses post race behind Cup Night. Been given a good break and his two trials to get ready have been strong, plus he’s a good fresh horse, so I’d be watching the market.

One of the better each way gambles of the weekend for me comes here in the shape of 6 Regal Counsel (Bet Now: $4.00) for the Peter Fernie team. He’s had two runs back from a break and has been solid enough each time, but with respect to Chris Graham, Mitch Pateman is a far better rider and he has won five times on this horse, so now he’s back on, from a soft, really keen on him running well.

8 Moschard (Bet Now: $9.00) is a stablemate of Regal Counsel that looks to be in for a good prep. Resumed over 1000m here two weeks ago where he was run off his legs early but loved the way he found the line late behind Money Matters in a very good return. Straight to 1400m is the query, but the resumption was very good.

Back in depth and back to 1400m are two big ticks for 5 Jeraft (Bet Now: $19.00). Ran in the Blue Spec Stakes two weeks ago over the mile here and just couldn’t get involved from the back in a somewhat disappointing effort behind Massimo. Was going well prior to that, so think he has to be deserving of another chance in a winnable race if he brings his best.

6 Grand Design (Bet Now: $12.00) is bursting to win a race and I think she gets a golden chance here. David Harrison trained mare that ran over this track/distance two weeks ago and worked home strongly from well back in the run. Just found one better, and a handy one, in Point Taken. Big tick is she draws gate one, so can sit much closer in the run.

It’s interesting what Peter Fernie will do with 4 Indian Chant (Bet Now: $6.00) because a win here would all but seal a spot for this guy in the Hannans at Kalgoorlie should they think he’s up to that level. Resumed in the Gold Rush at Kalgoorlie when unwanted in betting and a notable drifter, but gee he was impressive when letting down from off the speed and winning. Can measure up here for sure.

With the run under the belt, 11 Too Fat Too Slow (Bet Now: $20.00) can improve at a price. Resumed at this track/distance where he had the box seat but was under riding on the turn, seemingly going nowhere, but stayed on and was more than sound in defeat. A rise in trip would help I think, so staying at 1200m is the knock, but does have a good second up record.

Bludger of a race to close the meeting. I’ll give 14 Street Fair (Bet Now: $11.00) a chance here, but with caution. I was all over him when he ran over the Pinjarra mile last time out and once he got the inside split, thought it would be race over, but he didn’t finish off, so I have reservations, but I think a rise in trip could be ideal and the depth here is thin.

11 Staaden (Bet Now: $11.00) is the one with upside and progression for Adam Durrant. Ran in a 1600m Class One at Northam last Thursday where he had the suck run behind the speed before getting an inside split and in a driving go, he was able to get up and win. Off that, should be suited at 2000m and is in the right stable.

10 Sugar Cain (Bet Now: $9.00) is on the seven day back up for Team Williams, having last raced last Saturday over 2200m here where she got back to near last in the run and while she did make up ground but was never really a winning threat. Gets in really well at the weights after the claim and she does have the strong Saturday form.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 6 Regal Counsel

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 4 Money Matters

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 14 Street Fair

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 4

Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 9

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 6, 11

Leg Four: 2, 10, 11, 14

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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