Group l racing returns to Morphettville this Saturday where we will see the running of the both the UBET Classic (1200m) and the Schweppes Oaks (2000m). The weather is overcast, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:41) Queen Adelaide Stakes 1050m
5 Heaven’s Deal (Bet Now: $4.20), with a repeat of her debut, will just about take care of these. Backed as if unbeatable when debuting over 1000m at Murray Bridge and the punters got it spot on as she bolted in, spanked her rivals, ran excellent time relative to the day and did it without being fully extended. Keen to see what she does here.
2 Sanglier (Bet Now: $3.90) is a James Cummings trained colt who was solid in betting when resuming over 1100m at Caulfield where he looked a bit lost around the track but found the line well when balanced up behind Sunset Watch, who was disappointing last Saturday, so the form is a tad suspect, but to the eye, this bloke looks above average.
1 Dancer’s Kin (Bet Now: $6.00) is a definite chance if he can get a soft time of it on speed. That’s what he got when racing a fortnight back here and he got the job done nicely Kayla Crowther, proving too good for More Bricks, who ran well in a hot form race at Bendigo, so I’m respecting that form here despite more depth engaged.
Race 2. (13:16) Beresford Wines Handicap 2000m
8 Silent Warrior (Bet Now: $2.90) on top but just a tad reserved before jumping in. Plenty of punters were keen on hm three weeks back at this track/distance and on the turn it looked no betting but he found Chequered Flag too good. That horse ran last Saturday and won so the form has held up, and the depth here is nowhere near as strong. Just how much petrol is left in the tank is the concern.
2 Waging War (Bet Now: $1.65) is a Macdonald/Gluyas trained mare who is in ripping form at the moment. Ran in the Gold Mile at Caulfield last time out where Ben Allen rode her a treat just off the pace but let down with a lovely finale to win impressively. I can’t back her at the price, but she’s clearly a threat.
4 Velox (Bet Now: $10.00) got run of the race stuff to break a long run of outs two back at Mornington (Metro) before racing at Caulfield where he got back off the pace and couldn’t come on behind Magnapal. Drops big time in depth here and has run well at Morphettville before so an improved showing wouldn’t shock at all.
Race 3. (13:56) Carbine Club Handicap 1600m
I’ll have something each way on 1 Calderon (Bet Now: $16.00). Trialled up well at Cranbourne prior to resuming at Caulfield where he got a fair way back in the run but was tracking up nicely and once he peeled out, he looked a threat, but just ran out of condition. Still hit the line well enough for a horse wanting 2000m+. Class/quality is there. Hopefully fitness is too.
7 Mihany (Bet Now: $7.50) generally runs well at this level when Regan Bayliss is aboard and the gun hoop is back on. Attempted to lead all the way at this track/distance three weeks back but found Tatoosh too good on the day but stuck on well. Regan back onmnow, he can dominate things from the front and take some beating.
I think 4 Foundation (Bet Now: $23.00) is a huge watch here. Former Hayes/Dabernig runner that makes his SA debut for Michael Hickmott. In the Spring, this horse was talked up as a lightweight Cups contender, but it never came to fruition as his form dropped away. Now with Hickmott, and his Murray Bridge trial was more than encouraging. Definite yard/market watch.
Race 4. (14:36) Euclase Stakes 1200m
1 Viridine (Bet Now: $3.80) just gets the nod for me. If you were on in the Arrowfield, apologies for bringing up the nightmare again because that’s what it was. Probably wins with clear air at the right time but instead went around as if it was a barrier trial. He’s the best horse in the race for mine and provided he travels over well enough and is in the right frame of mind, he’s the one to beat.
This race will tell us if 2 Nature Strip (Bet Now: $2.30) is a contender or pretender. Lot has been made about his first up defeat at Caulfield at the hands of Sam’s Image. Yes, wasn’t the greatest of rides, horse overdid it, but IMHO, 100-150 out, he was out in time to beat Sam’s Image and in the end he was held. That’s the worry I have with him, and the form around him right through his career, as a whole, has been awful. But on times, he’s blacktype class.
Back to the sprinting caper, I think 11 Seannie (Bet Now: $34.00) can be quite explosive here. Admittedly it’ll take a good training effort from the Busuttin/Young team to get her to win from the mile back to 1200m, but ability wise, she has these covered. So much talent and they tried her out to be a potential SA Oaks horse, but the mile sees her out so 2000m never a chance. Back to sprinting, I’m keen to see what she does.
Race 5. (15:16) D C McKay Stakes 1100m
Going to have something each way on 4 First Among Equals (Bet Now: $8.50). Former WA galloper who has had a few runs now for the Weir camp and I reckon the stable is just starting to figure him out. Thought he was a real eye catcher late in the Bel Esprit behind Sprightly Lass in what turned out to be a real on pace affair. Fast run 1100m, clear air, hoping he can have last say.
2 Keen Array (Bet Now: $6.50) resumed in the VOBIS Gold Sprint at Caulfield a fortnight back where I thought Dunn gave the gelding every chance, parking him off the speed before getting into the clear, letting down, looking the winner, only to be nabbed late by Rich Charm. That form reads very well for this and he is a two time second up winner.
12 Karlovasi (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Richard Jolly trained gelding who is four weeks between runs since contesting the Manihi Classic where he really had no chance of finishing off given the lead/winner ran home in 33.5. He would have to had run sub 33 to win, something that’s generally saved for top shelf horses. More genuine tempo here, he can bounce back hard.
Race 6. (15:56) Schweppes Oaks 2000m
I’ve been on her back since the trials re an Oaks horse and I think 7 Savacool (Bet Now: $5.50) can follow the path of her stablemate Egg Tart by winning here and then winning the Queensland Oaks. The margin was narrow last time out at Caulfield but there was a touch of arrogance about the win. Regan got going a fair way from home and being second up, she was there to be beaten, but she held them comfortably. Really keen to see her up in trip on a big track.
From the Auraria, I think 6 Pleasuring (Bet Now: $15.00) might well be the horse to follow. She was first up for nearly two months and got a mile out of her ground but I loved the way she warmed to the task late behind stablemate Sopressa, who was hard fit, near the speed and got a beaut ride. More upside with this girl and is a proven filly at 2000m+.
8 Pretty To Sea (Bet Now: $34.00) looks a live threat for mine. Ciaron Maher trains this filly who comes here after contesting the Adrian Knox at Randwick where she was the winner bar the last stride when nabbed right on the peg by classy filly Luvaluva. Think she wants 2000m+, but she has the form on the board to run a ripper I feel at odds.
Race 7. (16:36) UBET Classic 1200m
Enormous respect to 15 Catchy (Bet Now: $8.50). Took on the big boys and girls in the Oakleigh Plate and Newmarket and wasn’t disgraced. Then went to the Championships at Randwick when good against the bias in the PJ Bell before backing up a week later and scoring a dynamic win in the Arrowfield Sprint. Own age and/or own sex is her go and at WFA, she’s beautifully suited here.
3 Super Cash (Bet Now: $6.00) can probably have strong claims as the best fresh horse Australia has seen since Mahogany. She is absolutely lethal when produced first up and she looks primed to run well here. Only had the one run in the Autumn, which resulted in a dominant win in the Rubiton, beating home some high class types like Merchant Navy and Rich Charm. Trial win at Cranbourne was enormous and the draw isn’t too bad.
4 Missrock (Bet Now: $15.00) looks the forgotten horse. Ran a ripping third fresh in the Lightning before not being far way in the Newmarket behind Redkirk Warrior. Led to believe she flew in a recent Cranbourne jump out and she is an absolute bomb when produced fresh. Should get good speed in front and launch late.
Race 8. (17:15) Queen Of The South Stakes 1600m
2 French Emotion (Bet Now: $7.00) should just about be beating this lot. Looked a good thing on paper last time out in the Distaff at Caulfield but despite that was a notable drifter in betting. That didn’t matter as Melham put her into the dream spot and from the halfway mark onwards, it was painless if you were on. Failed badly in this race a couple of years ago but looks a better mare.
1 Savapinski (Bet Now: $3.20) is a Waterhouse/Bott trained mare who was well backed at odds when resuming at Randwick a fortnight back where she attempted to lead all the way and to her credit she gave a really good kick but just found Tribal Wisdom and Osborne Bulls too strong. Look for her to be on speed and giving her all.
6 Quilate (Bet Now: $16.00) looks hard to beat to beat. Mick Kent trains this mare, who resumed over the 1100m at Caulfield three weeks back where she got a mile off them in the run but you had to like her finale, flashing home to run fourth to Working From Home. That followed what looked an average trial, so interesting to see what she does second up, but she does have a good second up record.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 French Emotion
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 1 Viridine
VALUE: Race Three Number 1 Calderon
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 12
Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 7, 8
Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 15
Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 6, 9
$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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