5/2/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Manfred Stakes day

A strong nine event meeting has been assembled for Caulfield on Saturday for Manfred Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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4 Minouche (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) has her share of talent for James Cummings. Produced the goods to win her maiden two back at Newcastle before going to Caulfield and closed off her race nicely from off the speed when second to Jillette. Like her back up in trip. Hard to beat.

1 El Patroness (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a quality filly for Danny O’Brien that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since the Wakeful where she was plain at the 2000m and the Oaks was off the agenda soon after, with the filly going to the spelling paddock. Has trialled well and brings a class edge. Market will tell you if she’s ready to go.

3 Mingora (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) is hard fit and in form for Lindsey Smith. She has won her past two, winning over this trip to break the maiden tag two back before going to 1300m and a 58 when sprouting wings late to win against the older horses. Harder here, but she’s a knockout chance.

More than happy to side again with 11 Worthily (Bet Now: $2.20 TOP ODDS). This former UK stayer made his Australian debut at Flemington three weeks ago over 1400m where he was smashed late in betting. Unfortunately just got a mile back from the wide gate but loved the way he closed off. Fitter and up to 1800m, he’ll take beating.

1 Flandersrain (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) has the runs on the board to give this a shake. Far from disgraced two back behind Designer Chef before going to the mile at Flemington against the Mares and tried hard from the inside gate, finishing close up behind Stay Gold. She can bounce back.

6 Vardani (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) deserves another chance. He gave them a spanking three back at the Bool before a closing fourth at Flemington. He then went to Sandown and didn’t fire a shot in a plain effort behind Zachaz. He got credits in the bank for the two runs prior, so giving him another look.

Buttering up with 4 Kings Full (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS). On the seven day back up after racing over 2000m here last Saturday where he sat on speed, chasing, and I thought he stuck to the task really well when a close up fourth to Playoffs. 84 back to 78 grade and fitter, up in trip, he looks the pony to bet on.

It’s hard to get away from 3 Brilliant Venture (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) and his spank job at Caulfield. Admittedly he had the suck run behind the speed, but he was not losing that race from a fair way out. Just a matter of getting clear and once he did, he gapped them. The query now being, can he repeat the dose. If so, he wins again.

6 Swelter Magic (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) has been a bit hit and miss at times but she is a handy stayer when she puts it all together. Made a mess of them two weeks ago at the Valley, helped by a peach from Cartwright. Got the ideal tag up behind Saving before taking the front before the turn and she just kept running. More depth here, but hard to ignore that effort.

I’m with 4 Renosu (Bet Now: $2.35 TOP ODDS). James Cummings trained colt that resumes after a two run Spring prep where he placed each time, the latest being on Cup Day at Flemington when beaten a lip. Has jumped out well leading in and from the good draw, he should take beating.

5 Sebonack (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is a son of Capitalist for Team Hawkes that is on debut. This guy has had a couple of jumpouts to get ready for start one, the latest at Flemington when second to Renosu, sitting near that horse throughout and moved well in running second. Maps ideally and have to respect the stable with the first starters.

3 New Hampshire (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) has a tricky draw to overcome but I think he has talent. Michael Moroney trained colt that is on debut off the back of three jumpouts, the latest seeing him sit wide throughout and looked to go about his business nicely. A threat if he gets luck in the run.

Looking at this race with Paulele out. 2 Generation (Bet Now: $2.10) is the one to beat. Hasn’t raced since Cox Plate Day when smashing the clock when winning the Red Anchor, potentially setting him up for Group l targets this time in. Good record at the track, is a winner at the track/distance and has class.

6 Unflinching (Bet Now: $2.35) looks a smart horse for Team Freedman. 3/3 to start his career and he has been sharp at each outing, the latest being two weeks ago at the Valley over 1000m where he showed really good change up speed and put them away to win well. Hard to beat here I’d suggest.

8 Lina’s Legend (Bet Now: $8.00) is potentially on an Australian Guineas path so I’m quite keen to see how he goes here fresh. Hasn’t raced since the Spring where he was slaughtered by Lane at Sandown when third to Extreme Flight, where he opted for cover instead of rolling on speed, which is when this horse seems most effective. Has trialled/jumped out well leading in and brings class.

5 Vespertine (Bet Now: $6.00) would have been on the podium for ‘Good Thing Beat Of 2022’ had she not won at Caulfield a few weeks ago. She was bolting for a run. Just a matter of getting and thankfully, it came in time for Logan McNeil, who is starting to find his feet in town. This mare was only second up so you’d like to think there is good improvement to come.

7 Divine Diosa (Bet Now: $6.00) looks to be in for a good prep. First run for Simon Zahra came over 1400m at Flemington where she closed off strongly from off the speed when second to Nicolini Vito, and there was market support, which was encouraging. Fitter, she appeals.

4 Takissacod (Bet Now: $31.00) will put herself on speed and try hard. Nick Heywood rode a peach front running race on the mare at Flemington on New Years Day and gave a strong kick, but couldn’t quite see it out when third to Stay Gold. Not sure she wins, but I think she is one to include in multiples.

I’m with 10 Desert Icon (Bet Now: $3.10). I’m still amazed he didn’t win at Randwick two weeks ago. He looked all over a winner but was nabbed right on the peg by stablemate Toomuchtobear. He gets significant weight relief and hard fit now, I think he’ll take a power of beating.

8 Criminal Code (Bet Now: $6.50) should love the rise to 1800m. He ran over the mile at Randwick a fortnight back and was quite good late from a fair way back in the run behind the well performed Lackeen. Not sure what target race is in mind for this horse but he’s come back in good order and finds a winnable race.

5 Pancho (Bet Now: $10.00) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. Three weeks between runs since racing over 1700m at Flemington when sitting on speed, a solid speed, and he tired late when down the track behind Dark Dream. He reminds me of Rousseau from last Saturday. If the money comes, he’ll run well, so watch the market.

7 Evening Glory (Bet Now: $5.50) for me. Team Freedman trained gelding that resumed a few weeks ago at Caulfield and I think with clear air, he wins instead of a narrow second to Scorched Earth, firing in an unsuccessful protest as well. Good second up record and off that resumption, he’s the one they have to beat.

12 Capriccio (Bet Now: $6.00) is several weeks between runs for Mitch Freedman since contesting the Standish Handicap down the Flemington straight where she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Halvorsen. She does like the straight course, so perhaps a touch flattered, but that form does read well.

9 Tony Nicconi (Bet Now: $34.00) looks to be enjoying life with Darryl Karp. Admittedly it’s one run of evidence, but it was a good effort, which came down the straight at Flemington when a close up fourth to Big Day Out. Proven Saturday metro performer when with Team Hayes, so I think he’s a first four contender.

Going to take a chance with 13 Pale King (Bet Now: $12.00), who resumes for Team Hawkes. He had a two run Winter prep at Kembla and he just didn’t fire a shot each time, albeit in stronger races than this. Been given a good break and I thought he trialled up really well at Rosehill on Monday. The trial earlier in the week followed by a trip to Melbourne and resume here in the same week, to me, signals intent.

4 Nicolini Vito (Bet Now: $2.80) is unknown at the mile but hard to knock the way he is racing at the moment and should get every chance to see out the trip. Lovely ride from Richards saw him win impressively over 1400m at Flemington last time. From the soft draw, the mile is okay and is in okay after the claim.

7 Prospectus (Bet Now: $46.00) can sneak a first four spot. Formerly with Chris Waller, he had his first run for Aaron Purcell at Warrnambool when on speed and he tried hard, but just lacked the class to match it with Tuvalu. Got upside to come and the rise in trip is a big tick IMO.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 11 Worthily

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 2 Generation

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 4 Kings Full

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 7, 8

Leg Two: 1, 5, 8, 10

Leg Three: 7, 9, 12, 15

Leg Four: 4, 6, 7, 8, 13

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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