5/2/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

Eight races will be run and won under the lights at Moonee Valley this Friday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.

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Heavy rain forecast for the afternoon/evening, so I’m working on a track that will start around Soft5 and gradually get worse as the meeting progresses. I’m going with 6 Zelify (Bet Now: $3.40) in the opener for Chris Waller. Hasn’t raced since breaking her maiden tag in impressive fashion at Ballarat on wet ground. Has looked strong in a couple of Flemington jumpouts and finds a winnable race.

4 Smokin’ Val (Bet Now: $3.50) is a very interesting runner. Jon O’Connor trained filly that is first up and interesting that the stable finds Olly to steer. He rode the filly in her last run last prep, which came in a strong form race when second to Celestine. Looked to move very well in a recent Morphettville jumpout, so watch the market.

7 Dana Point (Bet Now: $8.50) is hard fit, in form and should put herself on speed, giving herself every chance. That was the case last Friday at Flemington but just tired late. Gets the claim for Rawiller and Blinkers first time. Should lead this field up and give a sight for her supporters. Last bit may test.

I’ve got a bit of time for 4 Silly Point (Bet Now: $4.20), who is having start two for Team Hawkes. Debuted over 1200m at Sandown and was a real eye catcher against the race shape when second to Johnny Angel. If Williams can hold a forward spot from the gate with him, he’ll take some beating.

10 Ethekwini (Bet Now: $2.70) looks a likely prospect for Danny O’Brien who is a leading contender. Ran in a 1200m maiden at Geelong last time out when near the speed and fighting on pretty well in defeat when a close up second to Awkward, who was ridden by Olly but he now rides this horse. Hard to beat.

11 Astronomicelle (Bet Now: $16.00) is the knockout chance. Was on her at the big odds last time out here and she should have won. Jordan Childs just erred in peeling out and instead waited for a gap to appear, and it ended up being the wrong move. She’s got talent and a win wouldn’t shock at all.

I’m with 5 Cassius (Bet Now: $3.80) for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Three weeks between runs since racing over 1500m here when off the speed and working home okay late when third to Brazen Song. He should be suited up to the mile and does like racing on wet ground so he should get conditions to suit.

The Gelagotis team has 2 The Great One (Bet Now: $2.60) in sparkling form at the moment. Ran a couple of weeks ago at Pakenham under the lights where he was a bit keen in the run early on but once he relaxed, it was race over and he gapped them to win nicely. Harder here, but he deserves a city win.

Not sure I could back 11 Inkslinger (Bet Now: $12.00) to win but is one I can include in multiples. Comes through the Brazen Song race mentioned above and was far from disgraced in defeat, running fourth, beaten just under three lengths. Gets in well after the claim. Just needs luck from a tricky draw.

7 Ice Ice Baby (Bet Now: $2.45) looks the best horse in the race on potential and despite this set up probably not being ideal, I’ll bank on class and Jamie Kah getting him home. Showed good promise in the Spring and was far from disgraced here on Cox Plate Day behind Portland Sky. That form clearly reads well for this.

George Osborne has a speedy mare on his hands in the shape of 10 Hidden Charm (Bet Now: $5.50), who resumed over 1000m at Camperdown and sustained speed came to the fore, leading throughout to win and win well. She does look a real short course horse so the 955m set up I do like and likes racing on wet ground.

On the podium already for the best ducking/diving/weaving ride of 2021 is via Jake Duffy and the steer aboard 3 Choice Harvest (Bet Now: $15.00) last start at Yarra Valley. He was bolting for a run but the gaps kept closing. Somehow managed to get clear and drive hard late to win. Harder here, but he’s going super and is one for multiples.

2 Oamanikka (Bet Now: $.50) is flying for Donna Scott and this four year old deserves a crack in town. He has won two on the bounce, two back winning over 1400m at Corowa before going back to 1175m at Albury and under a lovely ride from McDougall, he was far too good. Gets in well after the claim, handles wet ground and hopefully doesn’t get too far back.

If the rain doesn’t come and this track is dry, then 7 La Bella Costa (Bet Now: $2.50) is clearly the horse to beat. Matt Laurie has this mare flying. Savaged the line from off the speed to win at Mornington two back before going to the straight at Flemington and charging late when second to Ididitforlove. That form reads well. Just doesn’t want rain.

3 Exeter (Bet Now: $6.50) commands respect. Kept pretty safe in betting when resuming down the straight at Flemington and was solid without being great, but the race shape was against him behind Ididitforlove. Drops back to a very moderate 64 and does get Jamie Kah taking the steer.

1 Humble Pie (Bet Now: $4.60) should be okay at 2500m. Symon Wilde trained gelding that ran over 2000m at Caulfield on Australia Day and worked to the line pretty well despite having his chance behind the in form Takumi. From New Zealand, he should be fine with rain about and isn’t badly in after the claim.

I think you have to respect 4 Set Us Free (Bet Now: $4.80). Big win from her first up over 2040m here. Was roughly six months between runs and had specking at odds early. Lovely ride from Harry Grace saw her get up in the last few strides. Harder here, but you’d like to think there is room for improvement.

10 Express Raider (Bet Now: $41.00) is one I can include in wider multiples. Nabbed right on the peg two back at Ararat before going to Warrnambool when solid enough in defeat behind Olympic Oath. Gets the Blinkers on again and from the inside gate, should do no work and can sneak a first four spot.

Tricky race so going for some value via 3 Fanciful Toff (Bet Now: $9.00), who is really hard to beat, especially if the forecast for rain is right. Resumed several weeks ago at Warrnambool in the Woodford Cup where he paraded like he would need the run and that is how it panned out. Goes much better up in trip, plus with good records second up and on wet tracks, he’ll do me.

5 Upswing (Bet Now: $2.80) is on the quick back up for Patrick Payne after racing at Caulfield on Saturday when back off the speed and working home nicely late when fourth to War Critic. Hasn’t done the back up since coming from NZ but the form around him does read well for a race like this.

9 Spirit (Bet Now: $21.00) resumes for Chris Waller. Former Hong Kong galloper that didn’t win a race in his first Australian prep when trained at the Gold Coast, but his efforts were more than sound and we know with these gallopers that they do better with the prep under the belt. Two jumpouts have been sound, wet ground is okay and I think will be strong late.

11 Pina (Bet Now: $10.00) for me in the get out. Doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates, but reckon Mick Kent has her going well. Ran over this track/distance last time out when a well supported favourite. Just got too far back in the run but thought she closed off pretty well behind Horse For Higher. Hard to beat if she can sit closer in the run.

5 Perennial (Bet Now: $4.50) is racing as if 2040m will be fine for her. Peter Moody trained mare who is a few weeks between runs since getting the job done over 1800m at Caulfield and what I liked was how strong to the line she was. Challenged, but fended them off. Gets in well after the claim and wet ground no issue.

4 Horse For Higher (Bet Now: $12.00) won that race mentioned above that Pina contested and he was pretty good from near the speed. Keep in mind as well that the start prior, he raced at Caulfield behind Perennial and was luckless, getting held up for the last 200m of the race with seemingly something to offer. Hard to beat.

BEST BET: Race One Number 6 Zelify

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 7 Ice Ice Baby

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 3 Fanciful Toff

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 7, 11

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 10

Leg Three: 3, 4, 5, 9

Leg Four: 4, 5, 8, 11

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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