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The Summer Carnival at Ascot concludes this Saturday where it is Perth Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (15:08) Crown Perth Plate 1000m

Back Me

5 Miss West Coast (Bet Now: $2.20 FAT ODDS) looks just about the good thing on the program. Trevor Andrews trains this daughter of Safeguard, who debuted in mid October at this track/distance where she ran an eye catching second to Amarillo Rose after getting a mile back in the run. Has been spelled and her trial at Belmont was outstanding, showing a lovely turn of foot from off the pace to win. Keen on her.

Danger

3 Drinkwhatyoulike (Bet Now: $8.00 FAT ODDS) is a daughter of Denman on debut for Brett Pope. She trialled up at Lark Hill on Monday where she led all the way and won the trial in decent enough time. Was pushed out, but responded well and on the line was holding her rivals comfortably. Not sure she’s brilliant enough to beat these, but she does look to have some talent.

Long Shot

1 Busy One (Bet Now: $31.00 FAT ODDS) is a Safeguard gelding for Dan Morton having his first start. He trialled behind Drinkwhatyoulike at Lark Hill on Monday where he was off the pace and under hard riding but did respond and was more than sound late. He has had two trials under the belt, still seems new but looks okay. Not sure he can win, but he goes in all multiples.

Race 2. (15:46) Tabtouch Better Your Bet Handicap 1600m

Back Me

It’s pretty much a case of any price is fair for 1 Angelic Ruler (Bet Now: $2.00 FAT ODDS). She looks to have these well and truly covered. Resumed with a brilliant win three weeks ago before backing up a week later over 1400m where she sat back in a fast run race before Tayla Stone peeled her to the outside and she proved far too good. Just has to repeat that to be winning here.

Danger

The market said that 2 Assetro (Bet Now: $5.50 FAT ODDS) had no legs when resuming in the Angelic Ruler race from a fortnight ago and the market was right. She had a relatively good run near the speed but was a shot duck on the turn and never looked likely. She’s better than that, so I think you have to give her another chance. Not sure she can win, but should run much better.

Long Shot

4 Action Figure (Bet Now: $20.00 FAT ODDS) is a son of Oratorio for Trevor Andrews who comes to town off the back of a maiden win over 1500m at Pinjarra where he was given a lovely ride from Jarrod Noske, getting a suck run near the inside before angling into clear air and he let down nicely to win comfortably and impressively. Looks to be on an upward spiral and should be included in trifectas/first fours.

Race 3. (16:26) Mumm Champagne Handicap (72+) 1600

Back Me

4 Royal Statue (Bet Now: $2.75 FAT ODDS) will do me here. Couple of brilliant wins to start the prep before racing over 1500m here four weeks ago where he tried hard but the leader/winner stole a march and he couldn’t reel him in. Hopefully up to the mile will suit him, gets clear air this time and can let down properly, like he did in the runs prior where he won impressively.

Danger

3 Reveille (Bet Now: $6.00 FAT ODDS) is an Adam Durrant trained mare who was three weeks between runs when racing over 1500m here three weeks ago where she loomed to win the race when asked by Lane but I reckon her condition just gave way when fourth to Double Digit. Think she’ll improve big time off that and up to 1600m in a winnable race, she looks hard to beat, but you could go a couple of ways.

Long Shot

6 Nelson’s Flight (Bet Now: $5.50 FAT ODDS) looks the obvious in terms of pace and I think he’s a chance of pinching this is left alone, something he has done successfully in the past. Ran over 1500m here four weeks ago and stuck to the task gamely when third to Lucky Roar. Hopefully for his fans, he finds the front and is allowed to do his own thing because that is when he races best.

Race 4. (17:06) Amelia Park Handicap (66+) 2200m

Back Me

4 Mosseratti (Bet Now: $8.00 FAT ODDS) is a Cliff Green trained stayer that usually holds form when he finds it and he found it last time. Came at this track/distance three weeks ago where the contest became a real slog and given he was only third, I reckon his condition just gave way. That run should hopefully bring him on from this and I’m hoping we can get an each way price.

Danger

6 Mr Alby (Bet Now: $2.90 FAT ODDS) is on the seven day back up after racing in the ATA Stakes last Saturday where he was the subject of a significant plunge at odds and after receiving the nice sit just off the speed, he couldn’t quite dash when required when fourth to Mississippi Delta. Drops a fair bit in grade/depth this time around and looks one of the hardest to beat.

Long Shot

5 Watch Me Ney Ney (Bet Now: $11.00 FAT ODDS) is on the seven day back up for David Harrison after racing over 1800m here last Saturday where the tempo was an absolute crawl set by the eventual winner Thisaway and this bloke just doesn’t like the sit/sprint scenario, but his late splits were quite encouraging for a horse who looks as if he wants further, which he gets immediately.

Race 5. (17:43) Summer Scorcher 1000m

Back Me

7 Misty Metal (Bet Now: $4.60) on top. The Harvey team trains this mare, who hasn’t raced since the Jungle Dawn over 1400m where she sat on speed all the way and looked to travel well but had no answers late for the class of Celebrity Dream. Freshened and back to 1000m looks an ideal recipe. The tune up trial a couple of weeks back at Belmont was outstanding.

Danger

5 Ambiente (Bet Now: $3.70) is a Liz Strempel trained gelding who has really turned the corner in recent months. Won two on the bounce at Belmont to end the Winter prep before being spelled. Resumed over this track/distance a fortnight back and was quite impressive in getting the job done, lumping 61kg to a first up win. Gets really good weight relief and can run well second up.

Long Shot

3 Gee Boss (Bet Now: $3.60) has to be respected. Michael Lane trains this talented sprinter, who resumed over the 1100m here three weeks ago where he was well backed and looked to travel well. Got clear and fought on gamely when a close up third to Snow Lord. Fast run 1000m down in the weights looks an ideal set up for him and Damien Lane takes over.

Race 6. (18:18) La Trice Classic 1800m

Back Me

I want to give 1 Celebrity Dream (Bet Now: $2.10) another chance. She was a red hot fav in the Starstruck last time and if you were on, it was a rather ugly watch. She was three wide no cover on a hot speed and couldn’t finish it off when fourth to Fontainebleu. I think you have to forgive that and if she gets better luck in the run, she’ll take some beating.

Danger

There was nothing wrong with the win of 2 Fontainebleu (Bet Now: $3.80) in the Starstruck. She had the suck run behind the good speed, angled clear at the top of the straight and ran to the line and through it with real purpose for a dominant win. Up to 1800m is ideal for her, she’s got upside and she does look one of the hardest to beat with those factors in mind.

Long Shot

3 First Affair (Bet Now: $7.50) was on the Perth Cup path but after just a fair run in the Towton Cup, she was freshened up and ran in the Starstruck where she sat last in the run and was never really in the hunt but did make ground and was good. Up in trip is a big tick for her…not sure about how much upside she’s got left, but she does have some decent runs on the board.

Race 7. (18:55) Ascend Sales Trophies Handicap (66+) 1100m

Back Me

9 Double Jeopardy (Bet Now: $4.80) is a Team Pearce trained gelding who had his first run in WA on December 1 over 1100m where he looked a bit big in condition but he ran a beauty in defeat I thought when second to Dam Ready. Has been accepted/scratched a couple of times since but has been kept on ice and he should improve big time off the resumption.

Danger

5 Alpha Sky (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Simon Miller trained four year who got the miracle splits to win first up over 1000m before racing at the same track/distance and running Ambiente to three quarters. That form clearly reads well for this and up to 1100m third up, hard fit now…looks extremely hard to beat. Just doesn’t want to give away too much head start.

Long Shot

3 Forceful (Bet Now:$7.50)Β  is a son of Hard Spun for Team Williams who was well fancied in betting when resuming over 1200m here three weeks ago but I think the way the race was run, and the fact he was back/wide, he didn’t have much hope and in the end, he didn’t do a bad job to get as close as he did. Back 100m in trip is the query but no doubting he’ll be strong at the end.

Race 8. (19:35) Perth Cup 2400m

Back Me

The ATA looks the right form for this and I think the one to beat is 10 Mississippi Delta (Bet Now: $6.00). She was given a lovely ride from Parnham last Saturday in the race and she always looked in control despite Action being just off her. She was holding him on the line for mine and I think turning the tables will be an ask. They look the two but siding with the mare.

Danger

3 Action (Bet Now: $2.15) is a Team Williams trained galloper who was three weeks between runs when racing last Saturday in the ATA where he seemed to have every chance under Pike but he couldn’t quite reel in Mississippi Delta. He looks the pick of the Peters runners in terms of class, but I just have a question mark on how well he;s truly going. Still, has to be respected.

Long Shot

I think the sleeper here is 15 Royal Star (Bet Now: $27.00). He last couple of runs have been more than encouraging, the latest in the ATA where she was a little unlucky not to finish closer when fifth to Mississippi Delta. Prior to her last couple, she was looking to be going awful but she seems to be back on track and a win here certainly wouldn’t surprise here.

Race 9. (20:15) Seppelt 'The Drives' Handicap (1MW) 1200m

Back Me

11 Bon Voyage (Bet Now: $6.50) is a hard horse to trust but I think in a tricky race, with hopefully good speed in front, he can have last say. Ran over 1000m here a fortnight back where he just got a mile off them in the run and was never likely but did make up ground late behind Ambiente. Extra trip looks ideal and if he’s within range on the turn, he’s certainly good enough.

Danger

6 Carocapo (Bet Now: $3.30) is a fascinating runner. Very talented galloper for Jim Taylor that resumes. This bloke hasn’t raced for nearly two years, his last run seeing him finish last here behind Dainty Tess. Had two trials in early 2017, then two trials in the Summer of last year. Has had three trials this time in, winning the last two impressively by big margins, so there looks to be intent to run well first up.

Long Shot

4 Lord Ludlow (Bet Now: $16.00) is a Paul Jordan trained five year who is just about in career best form at the moment. Ran over this track/distance at the midweeks on December 12 where he tried hard near the speed but couldn’t quite get the job done when second to the handy Beat The Devil. Probably needs to improve on that to be winning here, but stable is going well and track/distance record is sound.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Two Number 1 Angelic Ruler

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 5 Miss West Coast

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 4 Mosseratti

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 9

Leg Two: 3, 5, 8, 9

Leg Three: 1, 3, 10, 11, 15

Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 6, 11

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