Racing returns to Caulfield this Saturday with another strong nine race card, highlighted by the $150,000 Group lll Sir John Monash Stakes (1100m). The weather is overcast, the track is good (3) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (11:45am) : Ted Rainford Plate 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Jalan Jalan (Best Odds: $5.50) debuted at Mornington (Metro) and despite a betting drift, the daughter of Foreplay worked home strongly and got up to grab victory in what looked a pretty strong race, perhaps a touch stronger than what she faces here. So with that being the case, I suspect she will prove very hard to beat.
Big Danger: Green Card (Best Odds: $3.80) was another that trialled really well at Cranbourne prior to his first up run at Bendigo where he sat just off the speed before pouncing on the leaders early on in the straight and just bolting in. This field doesn’t look to be too strong, and with natural improvement from the first up run, he should be in the finish.
Roughie: Northkape (Best Odds: $5.00) trialled well at Cranbourne prior to debuting on that track where she led all the way to win impressively and win by a comfortable space. The trainer did have a couple of youngsters nominated for this race, including Bellomo, who won on Tuesday at Geelong, so the fact he has chosen this filly is a good lead IMO.
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Race Two (12:15pm) : The Thurgood Family Plate 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Pilly’s Wish (Best Odds: $3.20) on top. She was given a beaut ride from Ollie to win first up at the Valley before racing at that track again a fortnight back and working home strongly without much luck to run second to Wild Rain. Yet to race on her home track, but I don’t think that will be an issue, she has had two runs now so she should be near peak fitness and she is definitely looking for 1200m now.
Big Danger: Carashan Girl (Best Odds: $11.00) was given a pretty ordinary ride two back at the Valley behind Smashing Doubt before going to Ballarat and attempting to lead all the way when second to impressive winner To Be Honest, beaten just over two lengths. Back to 1200m looks ideal, trained on the track, firmer surface…definite chance.
Roughie: Flash Of Doubt (Best Odds: $12.00) surprised many with her wide no cover win two back at the Valley before sitting wide no cover again at the track, and while she didn’t win, she didn’t disgrace herself at all when sixth to Wild Rain, though it was just about a neck between third and sixth. Record at Caulfield is dreadful, which is the worry, but she Is racing so well at the moment and has to be included in exotics.
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Race Three (12:50pm) : Henry Dwyer Racing Handicap 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with Heavy (Best Odds: $4.60) here. He tried very hard two back at Randwick when third to High Midnight before going to Flemington and making up a stack of ground from the back to run fifth to Golden Oldies, beaten 2.6L. Trained on the track, has the class, rock hard fit and should take some beating providing he can handle the weight.
Big Danger: Blackjack Bella (Best Odds: $6.50) was given a beaut on speed ride from Chris Symons to win two back at Sale before going to that Golden Oldies race at Flemington and sticking on pretty well I thought when running sixth. That was her first run at 2000m, so she has experience at it and should be better for it and this race does carry a bit less depth than what she faced at Flemington.
Roughie: I’ll include Betsy (Best Odds: $11.00) one more time. Her three runs under the care of Robert Smerdon have simply been horrendous, most notably last time out at Ballarat when eighth to Penny To Sell, but I don’t think she was 100% happy on the heavy going. Firmer surface, trained on the track, should be cherry ripe fitness wise…one more chance.
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Race Four (1:25pm) : LUCRF National Jockeys Trust Final (78) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Tough race to sort out. Rich Jack (Best Odds: $4.80) is another that has thrived in a new environment. He was formerly with Greg Eurell but has been under the care of Carole Heffernan this time in, and the gelding has ran very well, with the highlight being a strong all the way win two back at Sale. He then went to Flemington and beat all bar Red Corner in a thrilling finish. He’ll sit on speed, probably lead and take some gunning down even with the big weight.
Big Danger: Spencer Street (Best Odds: $7.00) scored a dominant win three back at Warrnambool during their carnival before two runs at the Valley, and on both occasions he was excellent considering he got back near last and was forced very wide on the turn on both occasions. Yet to race at Caulfield, but he is trained on the track. Dunn rides, inside gate and should be more effective on top of the ground.
Roughie: Mick’s Hustler (Best Odds: $6.50) was well backed at odds to win last time out at Flemington, but unfortunately for his supporters, he just got too far back from the wide gate, but his last 200m or so was excellent. He’ll receive more bad luck than good luck due to his racing pattern, but today from a good gate, he could position himself a touch closer, and with only 53.5kg on his back, he looms as a definite winning chance.
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Race Five (2:05pm) : Mypunter.com.au Join Today Handicap 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: With Duke Of Brunswick out, Raposo (Best Odds: $3.60) just looks the one here. He arguably should have beaten Duke Of Brunswick two back at the Valley before backing up at the track and with a lovely patient ride from Jess Payne, the gelding charged home to get the bikkies. He has to do it away from the Valley, but there is good upside with him and the stable is having a good run.
Big Danger: Mihany (Best Odds: $11.00) was well backed to win last time out at Flemington, and after a fair run on speed, he kicked strongly and for a few strides he looked the winner, but he just felt the pinch late and was grabbed by Bon Rocket. He draws much better here, drops in weight and looks overs IMO at around the $13 mark.
Roughie: Interesting runner here is Zahspeed (Best Odds: $51.00). He looked outstanding in a couple of jump outs at Flemington, but his two runs there this time in have been quite disappointing. The seven day back up is a positive IMO, he’s fitter and he looks the leader. It’d be surprising to see him win, but I am expecting improvement.
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Race Six (2:45pm) : Wilson Medic One Handicap 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: With the significant weight drop, I’ll put Charmed Harmony (Best Odds: $2.90) on top. Two back he ran over the mile here and beat all bar the in form Red Bomber before going to the Valley 1500m, and despite carrying 58.5kg he travelled well on speed and looked home, but he couldn’t quite hold out Orion late. Tumbles down to the minimum now, looks the leader and should take some running down.
Big Danger: Eximius (Best Odds: $15.00) resumed in the Golden Topaz at Swan Hill and worked home okay late when eighth to Smackdown, beaten just under three lengths in a strong edition of the country sprint feature. He ran second second up last time in behind Tried And Tired, and the first up run was very good, so with some luck here, he can threaten.
Roughie: The very interesting runner is the Peter Moody trained Zuma Roc (Best Odds: $15.00), who resumes here. He only had the one run in the Spring, on Ballarat Cup Day, and aided by a peach from Chad Schofield, the gelding sprinted hard late to grab Eximius late and draw away. Recent jump outs have been okay I think, he runs well fresh and he does meet Eximius better at the weights for that meeting at Ballarat.
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Race Seven (3:25pm) : TAB Supports National Jockeys Trust Plate 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with Chiavari (Best Odds: $10.00). She dropped back in grade two back at Cranbourne and duly saluted before going to Mornington (Metro) and storming home from near last to run a close up third to Our Harmony in a strong form race. That was over 1000m, so the step up to 1100m here looks ideal, as does a likely hot tempo. Hard to beat with a bit of luck in running.
Big Danger: Our Harmony (Best Odds: $8.50) strung together a couple of impressive wins at Mornington, both at Metro level, before going to the Valley a couple of weeks and working home home strongly to run third, beaten three lengths. Given her tidy record, she looks well in at the weights, and one of the better apprentices in Victoria, Harry Coffey, takes the ride from a good draw. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Pink Perfection (Best Odds: $34.00) is a speedy filly who resumed for Peter Moody at Flemington when down the track behind Husson Eagle. She was too nippy down the Flemington straight in December before two runs at the Valley, with the first being an unlucky fourth followed up by a tiring 13th in a fast run race. She has good gate speed and will look to lead all the way. A chance with improvement, which is expected.
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Race Eight (4:05pm) : PFD Food Services Sir John Monash Stakes 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really good edition of the Sir John Monash. I’m going to go with the speedy mare Minaj (Best Odds: $17.00). She was having her first run in five weeks when running over 1000m at the Valley when attempting to lead all the way, but she just felt the pinch late after copping pressure in front. Her jump outs prior to that were very sharp, she’s fitter now, should lead and could take some running down, especially if she can pinch a cheap furlong.
Big Danger: Lord Of The Sky (Best Odds: $2.00) is the clear class runner of the field, winning this race last year, but has placed at Group l level at his past two starts in the T J Smith and Goodwood respectively, where he was very brave in both runs. He was due to run during the Brisbane Winter, but was scratched midweek due to a float hiccup. Not sure where his fitness levels are at, but if he is anywhere near right, he’ll just about blow this field away.
Roughie: Pago Rock (Best Odds: $34.00) can be a real nightmare to follow, but his runs this time in have been pretty solid without winning IMO. His last three runs have been at Flemington, with the first two behind Lumosty before a closing fourth to Hard Romp. His form at Caulfield is excellent, and with the race fitness, he can cause an upset at odds.
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Race Nine (4:40pm) : Spicer Thoroughbreds Handicap 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Word Of Mouth (Best Odds: $2.80) on top for me here. He was terribly unlucky two back at Randwick when a close up second to Sir Mako after getting badly held up in the straight. He then went to the Valley a fortnight back and thanks to a gun ride from Pat Moloney, the son of Not A Single Doubt just bolted in, winning by a space. Looks to have a bit of upside left and tumbles down in weight due to the class rise. Looks promising though, so I’m happy to be in his corner.
Big Danger: Hioctdane (Best Odds: $15.00) deserves another crack at Melbourne now after four excellent wins on the bounce in South Australia, with the most impressive coming last time out, where he looked in serious trouble in the straight, but kept lifting under hard riding and kept on strongly to get the job done. While he is in this sort of form, why not have a crack in the big smoke? Hard to beat if he brings that effort here.
Roughie: Tristram’s Sun (Best Odds: $21.00) wasn’t too bad I thought two weeks back at the Valley when fifth to Alcohol after getting a long way back in the run and making up good ground late. That was when ridden cold and the two starts prior he was ridden on speed, so I think we have figured out that riding him with a sit is his go, and if that eventuates here, with the rise to a more ideal trip, he can threaten.
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BEST BET: Race Five Number 3 Raposo
NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 14 Word Of Mouth
VALUE: Race Eight Number 10 Minaj
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 12
Leg Three: 1, 4, 10
Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 14, 18
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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